“If the Fed keeps its policy path promises, take the tragedy in Sri Lanka and multiply it by ten across the globe over the next six months. Check-mate FOMC.” – Larry McDonald
Blog
07/14/2022 - Larry McDonald on Federal Reserve Risks to Emerging Markets
07/14/2022 - Russia Pivots To Asia
- China is taking advantage of cheap Russian oil and coal.
- Shunned by the West, Russia is looking to Asia to offload coal and oil at steep discounts.
- China’s industrial power is being fueled by U.S. adversaries in Russia and Iran, Hudson Institute’s Duesterberg notes.
07/12/2022 - Dylan Grice on the Fed Pivot
“The Fed is about to trigger a significantly harder landing than they intend. If they truly want to bring inflation down to 2%, a severe downturn would be inevitable. Another leg down in financial markets is to be expected.”
07/11/2022 - The Black Swan is Still Flying
“On December 27, 2021 I wrote an op-ed saying the Black Swan is now flying. My recommendation at the time: Purchase long-term puts on Tesla, then trading around $1,200 and long-term puts on Bitcoin then trading near $50,000. Not much more than six months later, Tesla is around $750 and Bitcoin is struggling to stay near $20,000. Yet, in my opinion the worst is yet to come.
Why? Financial markets are beginning to recognize that the central bank emperors are naked. Central banks have kept the markets rising ever since money printing began on a global scale in 2009 in the US and in 2011 in Europe.”
Link Here to TheMarket.ch Article
06/27/2022 - Alejandro Tagliavini – “No more questions, Your Honor”
“As I always had great admiration for nature -the true one, not the one that is imposed by force since violence is that which violates the natural order, as the Greek philosophers already knew- I was very suspicious of this supposed enemy of the human being. I always knew that nature is infinitely wise -more than human reason that doesn’t even know how far the universe reaches- and dedicated to the growth of life, particularly of man.”
06/23/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Martin Barnes and Yra Harris on the Economy and Inflation
06/23/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Daniel Lacalle and Yra Harris on Evolving Financial and Economic Risks and the Investment Environment
06/13/2022 - John Collison in Conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller
06/13/2022 - The Cedar Portfolio – Register for the Presentation on the Investment Strategy
Monday June 27 at 9pm ET = June 28 9am Singapore Time
20 Minute Presentation followed by 10 Minutes of Questions
06/03/2022 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Many will be left behind…
“The “old world”, where politicians build borders -create «international» conflicts- and impose “laws” with their monopoly on violence (the State), is inevitably being left behind, simply because borders and violent impositions are unnatural. Of course, this will take years and it will not be a revolution, but – like everything in the real, natural world – a slow evolution, a maturation. But beware, beyond the fact that the digital world is still incipient and, therefore, with errors and deceptions, many are being left out because the technological development that drives this «new world» is accelerating by leaps and bounds to the point that an enormous most don’t even have enough time to catch up.”
05/30/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Sustainable Agriculture and the Link to Health
Ronnie Cummins and Leslie Manookian and Charles Hugh Smith
05/26/2022 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Disrupted markets (BTC, so bad?)
“Obviously, and therefore the great fear of the establishment, the Defi replace traditional banks -which today operate in an oligopoly with central banks- favoring people who interact directly without having to go through the banks and pay their commissions, but that the commissions are distributed completely among the individuals who interact in the market.”
05/16/2022 - Daniel Lacalle – A Choice of Global Financial Meltdown or Prolonged Inflation
“One day someone may finally understand that supply shocks are addressed with supply-side policies, not with demand ones. Now it is too late. Powell will have to choose between the risk of a global financial meltdown or prolonged inflation.”
05/10/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Dr. Barbara Kolm – VP of the Central Bank of Austria – and Yra Harris on Europe, the Economy and the Austrian School of Economics
05/05/2022 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on Inflation, Gold & Investing in the Current Challenging Environment
“A word about gold: The freezing of Russian currency reserves and the reserves of Russian oligarchs has given the coup de grâce to an international monetary system that started as a gold standard, morphed into a gold exchange standard (1922), and morphed further into a convenient dollar standard (1971). For international transactions, we may soon go back to a new gold standard or to a commodity standard of sorts. But no proud sovereign will again maintain its last-resort reserves in the currency of its potential rival or keep them in its banking system. The next step in this evolution will surely be taken by China, the holder of 3 trillion dollars’ worth of currency reserves. When it does, gold will no longer be trading at $2,000/oz., or $2,500/oz., or even $3,000/oz. It stands to reason that it will trade at a multiple of the latter.”
Download the publicly posted Quarterly Podcast
05/03/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Dr. Thorsten Polleit and Yra Harris on the Economy, the Financial Markets and Sound Money
05/01/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Leslie Manookian and Charles Hugh Smith on Health Freedom and Healthcare
04/28/2022 - Yra Harris – Into the Weeds on Yen/Yuan
“Fast forward to present day where the YEN/YUAN is 19.60 and DOLLAR/YEN is at 128.55. Can the FED continue on the path of aggressive rate hikes and balance sheet reduction? Will the Chinese allow the YUAN to strengthen and blow out the 2015 high of 20.25 YEN/YUAN? (Note: It matched that level three weeks ago.) Will a strengthening dollar result in a MASSIVE DELEVERAGING as borrowers seek to raise dollars in an effort to avoid default as U.S. rates rise, excess liquidity ebbs and pressure to avoid default rises?
THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION REMAINS: EXACTLY HOW MUCH LEVERAGE REMAINS IN THE SYSTEM due to the liquidity programs of the world’s major banks? Most of all, can XI tolerate a global and domestic slowdown simultaneously? All I know is if the Japanese had asked for help last week and Yellen said NO it was a great blunder as the Japanese under Kuroda are pledged to the foolish Yield Curve Control, which caused such havoc in Australia. How do you prevent YEN weakness and all its impacts without global intervention? Nothing is ever as it seems.
04/28/2022 - Alejandro Tagliavini – The cryptoverse is unstoppable, but still incipient
” It is that in this world of blockchain, as is the case of Bitcoin (BTC), no one really governs -in the sense that no one imposes their criteria or will on another no matter how «fair» it may be- but everyone is free to take the decisions they want with the only requirement of being -although completely anonymous, according to each one’s wishes- transparent and true and validated, in all cases, by the simple majority of hundreds of thousands of computers spread throughout the world.”
04/27/2022 - Yra Harris – The Meaning of the Yen/YUAN Cross
“The level of the YEN/YUAN has significance in as will be covered in a follow-up post but if the YUAN is beginning to depreciate it will cause pain for world markets as a stronger DOLLAR coupled with rising interest rates will be a drag on emerging markets saddled with massive cheap DOLLAR debt. On Tuesday the dollar index reached a two-year high of 1.0232, matching the March 2020 levels when the FED had to open DOLLAR swap lines with nine central banks it didn’t previously have a relationship with to ensure enough dollar liquidity for the global financial system, resulting in a decline in the DOLLAR of 12% over the following nine months.
The U.S. Treasury and the FED need to be cognizant of the vast increase in dollar-denominated debt and the systemic stress brewing with a rising DOLLAR COUPLED WITH RAPIDLY RISING, MARKET-DRIVEN INTEREST RATES.”
