“FED FUNDS RATE WILL NOT BE BOOSTED any time soon but the question that will be at the forefront of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND will be: HOW LONG DOES THE FED ALLOW THE CURVE TO STEEPEN and enacts Yield Curve Control? For me that is key to the dollar and of course precious metals and commodity prices. Currently, U.S. EQUITIES are the most prescient as fiscal stimulus coupled with a large pool of domestic savings are riding the wave of a FED induced sea of liquidity.”
02/07/2021 - Yra Harris: At the Fed, Jobs is Priority Number One
02/07/2021 - Stan Druckenmiller on the Markets, Equities, Inflation Trade
02/03/2021 - Yra Harris – What Constitutes Market Forces?
“Janet, what constitutes market forces? There will be no short squeeze on dollar positions regardless of what the banner headlines say on CNBC. Redittors have never met the printing power of the world’s central banks.”
02/03/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Reddit, la rebelión del mercado contra el “establishment”
“La insurrección coordinada en Wallstreetbets representa una nueva realidad para Wall Street: el mercado son los millones de personas que se mueven a su antojo. Después de GameStop los foreros han puesto sus ojos en la plata.”
02/01/2021 - Yra Harris: A Silver Lining In the Madness?
“WATCH FOR PLATINUM AS A POTENTIAL UPSIDE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SHORTED BY MANY AS A HEDGE AGAINST THE OTHER PRECIOUS METALS AS THE PLATINUM/GOLD SPREAD REVEALS. PL/GOLD closed at -$766 while its 200-month moving average is a POSITIVE $498 so that gives you perspective as to where the metals market are at. Platinum, like silver,has been in deficit of late as demand has out-stripped supply according to metals dealers at KITCO.
Something else to watch. There was a BLOOMBERG article published January 12 that showed the Russian Central Bank “FOR THE FIRST TIME HOLDS MORE GOLD THAN U.S. DOLLARS IN $583 billion reserves.” The story notes that “gold made up 23% of the central bank’s stockpile” and the “share of dollar assets dropped to 22%, down from more than 40% in 2018.”
Imagine if the REDDIT crowd gets assistance in its efforts from some of the world’s central banks. Wall Street is being challenged by some dynamic forces. Be static at your risk but trade it, don’t invest it.”
01/28/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Charles Hugh Smith on Is 2021 an Echo of 1641?
01/24/2021 - Fine Art as an Asset Class – Prince Charles Henri de Lobkowicz and Alec Oxenford
Throughout history and especially in times of pandemics and challenging societal times – wealth has been preserved and transmitted from generation to generation through real property/farmland, precious metals and fine art. We focus in this podcast on fine art:
01/22/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg – Negative Interest Rates, Commodities, Inflation, Gold
Emphasizes hard assets for protection from negative interest rates .. commodities, land, precious metals, equities .. also commodities have supply constraints .. points out gold is “half commodity and half money” .. “I think we are going to see an outburst of inflation” – inflation in terms of asset inflation and some consumer price inflation .. “I don’t see a central bank buying Bitcoin instead of gold” ..
01/22/2021 - Yra Harris: Central Bank Poker
“In a podcast I recorded in October 2016 with Rick Santelli and Anthony Cruedele I was asked about BITCOIN. I maintained that the BLOCKCHAIN element was interesting and needed more consideration but a currency aspect made me nervous BECAUSE SOVEREIGN GOVERNMENTS WOULD PROTECT THEIR CURRENCY MONOPOLY. That is, a sovereign’s duty and obligation. I said I feared that if the U.S. said a terrorist attack was funded by BITCOIN the government would make it illegal for after all the U.S. government made owning gold illegal in 1933-34.
It was YELLEN who suggested Congress curtail the use of BITCOIN amid terrorism concerns. My advice is trade it but be careful making it an investment. I am suggesting to be careful with this asset class even as it soars. Governments hate competition. Article 1, section 8, clause 5 of the U.S. Constitution: “To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin.”
01/20/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg: On Inflation, Real Rates and Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
“Persistent and continued dollar weakness is likely to trigger a mass rush out of dollars on the part of foreign central banks, which now hold 60% of their reserves in dollars. If only a small portion of this shift finds its way into gold, the impact on the price of bullion would be highly significant.”
01/20/2021 - Yra Harris: The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow
“The recent steepening of the yield curve–duration moving yield higher out on the curve–by MARKET FORCES will result in real concerns by the Treasury and the FED. HOW HIGH DO 10s and 30s have to rise before the FED acts? I don’t know but we will be watching.”
01/18/2021 - Fine Art as an Asset Class – Live Podcast Thursday Jan 21 at 2pm ET
01/12/2021 - Daniel Lacalle: Commodities Signal Stagflation Risk
“What is the problem of stagflation? Prices rise, economic growth is stagnant, which means that the cost of living for most citizens worsens dramatically. The central bank may continue with its misguided and wrongly-called “expansionary policy” because growth is poor, but the situation of millions of citizens rapidly deteriorates. In that scenario, governments resort to hiking taxes, which puts another burden on growth and jobs. The only way to avoid stagflation is to curb massive inflationary policies before they create a larger mess. It may cause a short-term bump in sovereign yields but the demand from fixed-income investors should be ample enough to avoid a debt crisis. After all, if central banks and mainstream economists believe there is such a savings glut and such a massive search for yield, a slowdown in asset purchases should have no consequence. What can really cause a debt crisis is to ignore the risks and continue expanding the central banks’ balance sheets as if nothing is happening.”
01/07/2021 - The Roundtable Insight: Louis-Vincent Gave & Yra Harris on the Most Important Changes in the Economy and Financial Markets
01/04/2021 - Yra Harris: Where Do We Go From Here?
“Despite the Fed’s success, the financial markets are now wondering how the central bank and its global counterparts — ECB, BOE, BOJ, SNB, RBA, RBNZ, BOC — plan to EXIT this flood of liquidity without causing asset prices to collapse …
So, WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? We’re going to deal with the increase in INFLATION to above the 2% targets of all the central banks …
How long will the FED allow economic growth to accelerate before RAISING RATES and will this prompt the necessity of YIELD CURVE CONTROL to prevent any market action to RAISE THE LONG END OF THE CURVE, thus subverting the intentions of a TREASURY/FED dedicated to social justice rather than traditional economic outcomes?”
01/03/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Mas combustible para el Bitcoin que sigue rompiendo récords
“El Bitcoin (BTC) llegó a subir hasta arriba de los USD 34.000 solo unas semanas después de superar otro hito importante ya que avanzó casi un 50% en diciembre, cuando superó los USD 20.000 por primera vez. Y “estará en camino a los USD 50.000 probablemente en el primer trimestre de 2021″, según Antoni Trenchev, socio gerente y cofundador de Nexo en Londres, el mayor prestamista de criptomonedas del mundo. Tone Vays, un popular analista cripto, sugirió que el precio podría alcanzar los USD 300.000 para fines de 2021. Y más todavía, esta “criptomoneda” debería eventualmente subir hasta alrededor de USD 400.000, según Scott Minerd, director de inversiones de Guggenheim Investments.”
12/31/2020 - Charles Gave: Inflation will come back with a Vengeance
“Buy value stocks, buy the commodities sector, and buy emerging markets. And for the antifragile part of your portfolio, buy RMB bonds and gold. ..
I’m a big bull on Japan, it’s not a crowded trade, so I feel comfortable in it. In a world that is reflating, Japan typically does well. And in this unfolding new Cold War between the U.S. and China, Japanese industrial companies are well positioned. ..
The market value of the global semiconductor industry has moved above the market value of the global energy sector. The market is telling us that semiconductors are more important than energy; they are the commodity of the future. We should think of Taiwan the way we used to think of Saudi Arabia .. The leadership in the semiconductor industry now belongs to Taiwan.”
12/30/2020 - Daniel Lacalle: This Time Is Not Different. More Debt, Less Growth
‘Two factors tell us that the recovery in 2021 will likely be disappointing. Massive liquidity injections, with $26 trillion injected by central banks, have been used mostly to perpetuate elevated government spending, fundamentally current spending, and fund public debt. The second is that corporate balance sheets have been damaged to a level that will make it difficult to see a significant growth in investment above depreciation. SP Global expects global capital expenditure to remain weak in 2021.”