Blog
04/05/2024 - CedarOwl: Most Admired Advisors (MAA) Views and Perspective on Finance, the Economy & Global Markets – April 2024
04/04/2024 - Adam Rozencwajg – $15,000 Gold, $125 Uranium, $0 Lithium – on Resource Talks
04/04/2024 - CedarOwl – Introducing the Most Admired Advisors (MAA) – views and perspective of our Top 10 financial advisors, fund and asset managers
If you’ve been searching for a trustworthy monthly pocketbook of trends and insights on the economy and financial markets, this new, recurring segment is for you.
Introducing ‘Most Admired Advisors’ (MAA) by CedarOwl – a monthly report featuring a global top-10 roster of financial advisors, fund and asset managers. We source and cite a distillation of their current, relevant sentiments on trends in the economy and financial markets as a reliable source of insights for our readers.
Our MAA roster is reassessed monthly and stacked against our values and analysis models so you can enjoy an ever-fresh perspective on our category’s thought leadership.
For each economist or manager, look forward to fulsome summary points and observations on their views and perspective on the economy, the financial markets, and their investment ideas.
All taken from publicly linked sources across the open web, including our partners at FRA Roundtable Insight Podcast.
We do the assessment, research and compilation work as a service to you.
Sign up below to become a free subscriber to CedarOwl:
04/01/2024 - CedarOwl – Bloomberg Article: How the Nuclear Fusion Market Could Achieve at $40 Trillion Valuation
“Nuclear Fusion as a solution towards the sustainable, green vision that the world has been striving towards has been severely downplayed and relatively unknown. Yet, key players in the energy sector are advancing nuclear fusion technologies, preparing the world for its commercialization as an energy source, presenting potentially enormous investment opportunities. Does this make your hair stand on end? It should.
Read How nuclear fusion market could achieve a $40 trillion valuation, a Bloomberg report. ..
In today’s posting, we explore the current opportunity presented by the advancements in nuclear fusion as an energy source.
- What is nuclear fusion, and why has it been downplayed?
- Does nuclear fusion make environmental, financial and economic sense?
- What are our nuclear fusion investment strategies that leverage key players advancing the technologies, that can help us attain outperforming return on investment (ROI)?”
Link Here to the CedarOwl substack posting on nuclear fusion
03/30/2024 - Frank Giustra & Pierre Lassonde on Gold, Macroeconomics, Geopolitical Threats, and Why Canada is Failing
03/30/2024 - The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt | Russell Napier
03/30/2024 - Louis-Vincent Gave on “What the Fed Did Next”
“Looking at copper, gold, bitcoin, the US dollar and others, it increasingly looks as if the market has already decided. The fear of losing the dinner party invites is stronger than the fear of getting a bad rap in the history books. In any case, over the last few years the new motto of public life in Western democracies seems to have become “Après moi, le déluge.” Why expect a change now? The market is likely right to expect an easy Fed—and to position itself for reflation.”
03/28/2024 - CedarOwl – How We are Investing in Green and Clean Nuclear Fusion Energy
Nuclear Fusion as a solution towards the sustainable, green vision that the world has been striving towards has been severely downplayed and relatively unknown. Yet, key players in the energy sector are advancing nuclear fusion technologies, preparing the world for its commercialization as an energy source, presenting potentially enormous investment opportunities. Link to Bloomberg’s article on Nuclear fusion market could achieve a $40 trillion valuation. Does this make your hair stand on end? It should.
CedarOwl’s goal is to shine a light on innovative and profitable answers to the question: How can our global society transition into a silver-lined, sustainable future through technological advancement, idea sharing and investment?
In today’s posting, we explore the current opportunity presented by the advancements in nuclear fusion as an energy source.
- What is nuclear fusion, and why has it been downplayed?
- Does nuclear fusion make environmental, financial and economic sense?
- What are our nuclear fusion investment strategies that leverage key players advancing the technologies, that can help us attain outperforming return on investment (ROI)?
How Does Nuclear Fusion Energy Stack Up?
Industry experts including Doomberg and Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates have highlighted the challenges of the traditional so-called “green” renewable energies of wind and solar in being able to provide green and clean energy:
- Low Energy Return On Investment (EROI) – how much energy is required to generate a unit of usable power output – as wind is generally in the 10-to-1 range and solar is generally in the 5-to-1 range, compared to oil/gas/fossil fuels in generally the 30-to-1 range and nuclear fission in generally the 100-to-1 range
- Difficulties in sufficiently scaling to meet demands of current and future energy requirements globally – on required sizes, costs and commodity input availabilities
- Rising finance costs on wind and solar projects due to rising interest rates and inflation
- Declining abilities by heavily indebted governments looking to finance wind and solar projects, especially in the indebted western world characterized by unsustainable government debt and unfunded liabilities
And then there is also nuclear energy. There are two forms – nuclear fission and nuclear fusion.
Nuclear fission energy is available today, is scalable, has relatively high EROI and can be built economically. A reasonable energy transition strategy – towards lowering carbon emissions and migrating away from fossil fuels – is using a mix of all of the above and other developing energy sources, and has been identified by various industry experts including Doomberg – we fully promote this approach.
What about nuclear fusion? What is nuclear fusion energy, how is it different from nuclear fission energy, and why would it make sense to pursue its commercial development? Can it make financial and economic sense?
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Its Bad Wrap
Doomberg is a leading write on the substack platform, providing a special focus on energy. Doomberg is very bullish on nuclear energy in general – here is a link to the nuclear related articles if you would like to deepen your dive on the subject.
Scientific American Journal differentiates nuclear fusion energy from nuclear fission energy:
“Nuclear fusion—the merging of light atomic nuclei—has the potential to produce energy with near-zero carbon emissions, without creating the dangerous radioactive waste associated with today’s nuclear fission reactors, which split the very heavy nuclei of radioactive elements.”
So far this year, European scientists have made key breakthroughs in record-breaking amounts of energy made with fusion energy, highlighting the advancement of the technology.
If nuclear energy is such a great solution, then why have seemingly inferior technologies taken the lead in this race?
Fusion is not Fission. They’re both forms of nuclear energy but one is vastly different than the other. Fission energy power plants of old are the source of attitudes stemming from images of meltdowns, toxic radioactive waste and nuclear bomb material proliferation – even though many of these concerns and risks have been largely mitigated through technology and added-value applications and uses.
This isn’t your daddy’s nuclear energy.
In any case, nuclear fusion energy does not pose these risks to the environment and communities.
Summary of Advantages of Nuclear Fusion Energy
Ian Chapman, CEO of the U.K. Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), the British government’s nuclear energy organization says we simply have no other long-term way of getting to net-zero carbon emissions, especially because the global energy demand is projected to triple between 2050 and 2100. “Fusion is essential” to meet that need.
Tony Donné, EUROfusion’s program manager says “I can’t see what else it will be” – renewables such as wind and solar energy definitely have a role to play, but they aren’t likely to be enough.
Advantages of nuclear fusion energy:
· Abundant energy: Fusing atoms together in a controlled way releases nearly four million times more energy than a chemical reaction such as the burning of coal, oil or gas and four times as much as nuclear fission reactions (at equal mass). Fusion has the potential to provide the kind of baseload energy needed to provide electricity globally.
· Millions of years: Fusion energy commodity inputs are highly abundant globally.
· No CO₂: Scientists, environmental groups and organizations identify the challenge of lowering carbon emissions resulting from human-generated activities globally. While the science is debatable behind to what extent carbon emissions is affecting climate, everyone agrees that is it is best to minimize or eliminate polluting effluents such as carbon emissions into the environment, whether in the air, land or water. As such, nuclear fusion energy doesn’t emit harmful substances like carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
· No long-lived radioactive waste: Nuclear fusion reactors produce no high activity, long-lived nuclear waste. The activation of components in a fusion reactor is anticipated to be low enough for the materials to be recycled or reused within 100 years, depending on the materials used in the “first-wall” facing the plasma.
· Limited risk of proliferation: Fusion doesn’t employ fissile materials like uranium and plutonium. There are no enriched materials in a fusion reactor like ITER that could be exploited to make nuclear weapons.
· No risk of meltdown: A Fukushima-type nuclear accident is not possible in a fusion energy device. It is difficult enough to reach and maintain the precise conditions necessary for fusion—if any disturbance occurs, the plasma cools within seconds and the reaction stops. The quantity of fuel present in the vessel at any one time is enough for a few seconds only and there is no risk of a chain reaction.
· Cost: The power output of the kind of fusion reactor would likely be similar to that of a fission reactor (i.e., between 1 and 1.7 gigawatts). As with many new technologies, costs will be more expensive at first, when the technology is new, and gradually less expensive as economies of scale bring the costs down. Some links exploring the costs – link here, link here and link here.
Paul Dabbar, former Under Secretary for Science at the Department of Energy, said fusion does have the potential to one day be an affordable power source.
“The fuel is hydrogen,” said Dabbar. “Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, and also on Earth. You know our ability to use that for energy in theory should be quite cheap.”
Link here to a great discussion on some latest developments of fusion on Faster, Please! with Fusion Industry Association CEO Andrew Holland.
How We Invest in Nuclear Fusion Energy
At the site of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), a poloidal field coil undergoes testing. Six of these ring-shaped magnets will steer plasma within the experiment. Credit: Alastair Philip Wiper
The key consideration we take on investing in nuclear fusion energy is our investment approach.
Our approach to investing is based on the principles of a unique school of thought known as the Austrian School of Economics, emphasizing great, high free cash flowing businesses with little or no debt or manageable debt, elements of scarcity and innovation. Our research team has distilled a set of observable and assessable metrics from these principles – there are several studies indicating these metrics have correlation with equity market outperformance, thus providing us with a statistical edge towards portfolio outperformance, although not necessarily guaranteed.
Further we look to assessing the extent to which the great businesses identified are aligned with the principles of Market Environmentalism, a set of 4 principles emanating from the Austrian School of Economics, which overall provide a market-based approach to helping the environment and promoting the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We feel this approach provides a better highway to meeting the SDGs versus approaches based on agenda-based environmentalism or approaches which rely on controlling, taxing or outright restricting human behavior, freedoms or liberties.
Given our investment approach in general, we provide consideration to investing in nuclear fusion with an emphasis on these factors:
· We invest in businesses meeting our metrics-based analysis highlighted above and aligned with the principles of Market Environmentalism – businesses that have relatively low or manageable debt, high free-cash-flows from legacy business units, significant to be able to fund the investment into the development of fusion energy on a large scale, and at the same time targeting equity outperformance as a dual mandate
· We invest in businesses that conduct significant fusion energy development or have ownership in private-based fusion energy development companies
· We invest in businesses that provide engineering and support, commodity inputs or specialized products/services in fusion energy power development and operations
To this end, we have identified several public-exchange traded companies which meet the above set of criteria. Let’s have a look at them here ..
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Disclaimer: This information and material contained in this post is of a general nature and is intended for educational purposes only. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. This post does not constitute a recommendation or a solicitation or offer of the purchase or sale of securities. Furthermore, this post does not endorse or recommend any tax, legal, or investment related strategy, trading related strategy or model portfolio. The future performance of an investment, trade, strategy or model portfolio cannot be deduced from past performance. As with any investment, trade, strategy or model portfolio, the outcome depends upon many factors including: investment or trading objectives, income, net worth, tax bracket, suitability, risk tolerance, as well as economic and market factors. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that investments, trades, strategies or model portfolios will be successful. All information contained in this post has been derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed.
03/24/2024 - Louis-Vincent Gave on the Importance of TikTok
“The US House of Representatives’ approval of a bill aimed at forcing China’s Bytedance to divest TikTok has implications in areas far beyond the future of the wildly popular video-sharing platform. In this short video interview, Louis Gave examines the potential consequences for media freedom, for US-owned big-tech platforms, and for foreign investment in the United States.”
03/24/2024 - Climate: The Movie (The Cold Truth) – Supporting Market Environmentalism
03/23/2024 - CedarOwl – Introducing a new service – “We Invest in Positive Ideas”
CedarOwl: We are excited to very soon be able to offer you a service which we hope you will find to be of value to you. The service focuses on helping to answer these questions:
- What are the interesting trends in the economy and the financial markets?
- What are the interesting opportunities we are investing in?
- Who are the top 10 economists and asset managers – our Most Admired Advisors (MAA) – we think have the best insightful views and perspective on the economy, the financial markets, and interesting investment ideas? And can we summarize what these economists and asset managers are saying in publicly available articles, essays, reports and podcasts in a brief way, saving you time?
- What are interesting investing ideas we are using or considering for getting income and dividends? How are we targeting a portfolio with overall income yields of over 10%?
- Are there ways to promote the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) to help society and the environment –
- which make environmental sense, financial sense and economic sense?
- which are aligned with the positives of human nature?
- which we are investing in?
The service will launch very soon within the next few weeks. You can subscribe today with your email address:
Disclaimer: The information and material provided (“Information”) on the CedarOwl substack is of a general nature and is intended for educational purposes only. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. The Information provided does not constitute a recommendation or a solicitation or offer of the purchase or sale of securities. Furthermore, the Information does not endorse or recommend any tax, legal, or investment related strategy, trading related strategy or model portfolio. The future performance of an investment, trade, strategy or model portfolio cannot be deduced from past performance. As with any investment, trade, strategy or model portfolio, the outcome depends upon many factors including: investment or trading objectives, income, net worth, tax bracket, suitability, risk tolerance, as well as economic and market factors. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that investments, trades, strategies or model portfolios will be successful. All Information has been derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed.
03/20/2024 - Russell Napier on Financial Repression, Investment Ideas and Debt Challenges
03/01/2024 - The Roundtable Insight – David Rosenberg, Peter Boockvar and Yra Harris on the Economy, the Financial Markets and Investment Ideas
Special Free Offer Trial from David Rosenberg on his research reports at Rosenberg Research – send an email to information@rosenbergresearch.com and request a free trial, mention you watched this podcast.
02/26/2024 - Alejandro Tagliavini on Argentina President Milei and the Market Economy that was Not
“There remains the hope that he will return to his speech, not so excellent, but in the right direction and adopt a free market economy, liberating, decreasing the weight of the State over the private sector.”
Cedargold research group:
Some good suggestions and ideas towards the end of the essay .. our thoughts and suggestions, which if anyone is interested in expanding into a document to send to President Milei, please contact us:
* a detailed plan with initial quick wins over 3 to 6 months to show good progress in the right direction
* a regulatory review process to eliminate duplicate or outdated or anti-market regulations will help
* an encouragement of foreign direct investments to get dollars and investment flowing into the country will help .. also tax incentives for entrepreneurs and innovators to setup new businesses and thereby hire new jobs
* a promotion of the Argentine tourism industry
* a setting up of an international university like Hayek College in Brasilia Brazil to educate on Austrian School of Economics to Argentinians and to foreign nationals as recognizing Argentina as a new emerging global leader in this economics
contact email – info@cedarportfolio.com
02/22/2024 - The Roundtable Insight – Vision Series – Charles Hugh Smith on AI and Job Challenges and Trends
02/22/2024 - The Roundtable Insight – Judd Hirschberg Technical Analysis Update on the Financial Markets
02/22/2024 - The Roundtable Insight – Larry McDonald and Yra Harris on Stagflation, Gold, Commodities, Rates and Currencies
02/15/2024 - The Roundtable Insight – Chris Whalen, Peter Boockvar and Yra Harris on Market, Financial and Banking Risks and Trends
Download the Podcast in MP3 – Voice Only
01/31/2024 - Podcast on Heritage, Prestige and Its Influence on Business and Fundraising
February 5, 2024
12pm ET
Watch on YouTube or view the Replay Later – to be posted on this media site
Participants:
Lady Violet Manners
Prince Charles Henri Lobkowicz
Princess Diana de Cadaval,
Richard Earl of Tyrone
Laurent Feniou CEO of Cartier
Alejandro Tagliavini
Richard Bonugli, CEO and Founder of Cedargold https://cedarportfolio.com
01/31/2024 - The Vision Series – Dr. Titus Gebel and Charles Hugh Smith on the Opportunities and Benefits of International Cities and Special Administrative Zones
