Blog

05/23/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Previsible: la estrella son los futuros de crudo

“Esta semana pareciera que renació el optimismo en las bolsas que, en mi opinión sigue siendo exagerado porque no está tan claro que los gobiernos levantarán fácilmente la represión -con la excusa de “combatir el coronavirus”- sobre los mercados. El S&P 500 alcanzaba los 2971 su nivel más alto desde el 6 de marzo pasado, aunque este jueves bajaba un 0,7% y el Nasdaq 100, aunque también bajaba este jueves, está solo a un 2,5% debajo de su máximo histórico.”

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


05/21/2020 - Daniel Lacalle on Gold for Protection from Financial Repression

“There is a huge disconnect between markets and the economic reality, and it’s fundamentally based on the view that 2020 is a lost year and therefore what investors need to think about is 2021 is a recovery year. It looks a very dangerous bet to me because if there’s anything that we have learned from this crisis is that estimates for 2021 remain excessively optimistic, and that the V-shaped recovery is more than elusive.”

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


05/20/2020 - The Roundtable Insight: Louis-Vincent Gave and Yra Harris on Commodities and the Global Economy

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Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


05/20/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – INFLACIÓN Se disparó fuerte en abril y asoma la híper

” Días atrás, la OCDE advertía que el crecimiento anual del IPC en los países desarrollados se desaceleró significativamente, cayó al 1,7% en marzo desde el 2,3% en febrero, “reflejo de la evaporación de la demanda” a medida que la represión de los gobiernos detuvo casi por completo la actividad.”

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


05/13/2020 - Peter Boockvar: The Idiocy of NIRP

1)It’s a tax. A tax on bank capital housed at a central bank that someone has to eat, either the bank itself or they pass it on to their clients. Taxes aren’t stimulative.

2)It would blow up the $4 Trillion money market industry as money would flee and this money finances government repo’s, commercial paper, CD’s, etc…

3)It would damage bank profitability, which is the blood of small and medium sized business lending and a big help to large ones that also have access to capital markets. To remind you, the Japanese Topix bank stock index is down 92% in nominal terms since its peak in 1989. The Euro STOXX bank stock index is down by 89% from its 2007 high.

4)We’re seeing in Europe that banks have passed on some of the tax on to retail deposits. There is a story today on BN that UBS is offering some of its high net worth clients a payment holiday for a few months from paying the negative rate penalty for keeping money at the bank. They are doing this because money is leaving the bank.

5)It hurts insurance companies and pension funds that have little low risk options in meeting their investment return goals.

6)It crushes the saver and retiree.

7)It has created a massive bubble in sovereign bonds that will be a complete mess when reversed considering the large debt taken on that NIRP encourages.

8)It therefore becomes a trap for central banks because of the potential damage to bond prices when unwinding it.

9)The Swedish Riksbank saw the error of its negative rate ways and got its benchmark rate back to zero, but only zero. Even the BoJ realized the damage done as they stopped at a negative rate of .10% years ago.

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


05/13/2020 - Yra Harris: Myopic Gibberish

“Why push for negative interest rates? What would be the desired outcome? If it is to weaken the DOLLAR, better to follow the Swiss paradigm even if it verges on the legality of the Federal Reserve Act. The FED has supposedly begun purchasing corporate bonds so it is already stretching its legal position.”

LINK HERE to the commentary

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


05/12/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Las tasas negativas de la Fed y la evolución del dólar

“En EE.UU. orquestaron estímulos fiscales por unos u$s3 B, más del 14% del PBI de 2019 y todavía se espera otro billón para el mes que viene. Esto acarrearía una fuerte sobreoferta -inflación- sino fuera por la gran demanda global de dólares, a la vez que las otras monedas se depreciarán quizás más: se estimaba que los países del G-20, para capear la crisis por las cuarentenas, lanzarían estímulos por u$s8 B, pero esta cantidad ya supera los 10 B. De hecho, Dollar Index Spot ahora sube hasta los 100,23.

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


05/05/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – De cómo los argentinos pobres financian a Boeing

“Dos meses atrás Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) fue a Washington a pedir un rescate de u$s60.000 M para sí y sus proveedores. Había gastado mucho en recompras de acciones mientras se recuperaba del desastre del 737 Max y cuando recién empiezan los efectos de la represión del mercado aerocomercial por parte de los gobiernos.”

LINK to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


05/04/2020 - The Roundtable Insight – Judd Hirschberg and Yra Harris discuss their Research and Trading Strategies

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Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


05/01/2020 - The Roundtable Insight – Charles Hugh Smith on how COVID 19 will affect Jobs and the Economy

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Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


04/27/2020 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on the Economy and the Financial Markets

Quarterly Conference Call with Dr. Albert Friedberg – some notable points:

  • Discussion on the Federal Reserve “put” on the financial markets
  • Money supply is growing at 20% per year now
  • S&P 500 PE ratio of 35 now makes sense
  • Still bearish on oil, but cautiously bearish now
  • Discussion on gold in the international monetary system

LINK HERE to the podcast

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


04/27/2020 - Dr. Albert Friedberg – “We have entered the third phase of the life of fiat money”

“We have now entered the third phase of the life of fiat money. There are now no restraints on its creation because it is widely believed that there is no link between money growth and inflation. Therefore, the Fed will create as much money as is needed to lift the economy from temporary deflation and depression. The money explosion under way will have an impact on consumer prices as soon as the economy begins to stabilize. My guess is that by the end of this year inflation will run at well over 3% per annum and at 3% to 6% per annum sometime in 2021. These are, of course, guesses as we are unable to know (a) how fast money will run by then, (b) what the precise relationship between money and prices is, other than it is positive, and (c) the role of expectations. If the latter turns into an inflation psychosis, inflation may run much higher than estimated. Such a scenario favours hard assets over investment/income-producing assets and, in turn, gold over most other hard assets. By tradition, gold is viewed, at least partly, as money because it possesses certain notable attributes. Unlike fiat money, it does not represent the liability of an issuer nor can it be created without cost by an issuer; for the past few thousand years, its supply has grown at no more than about 2% to 2.5% per year. It is extraordinarily liquid, portable, and marketable. Gold is quoted at the same price in every country of the world. These attributes qualify gold to retake an important role in monetary affairs.”

LINK HERE to the Commentary

 

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


04/27/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Mmm… ¿en qué andará Warren Buffett?

“Lejos de la imagen de “bondadoso abuelo capitalista”, Warren Buffet logró gran parte de su fortuna denostando al libre mercado; de hecho, entre sus “brillantes negocios”, financió un referendo para que el Gobierno sostenga el monopolio eléctrico de su empresa NV Energy, en Nevada, contra la liberalización que, dada la competencia, abarataría las tarifas.”

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


04/23/2020 - The Roundtable Insight – Daniel Lacalle and Yra Harris on the Implications of the Virus on the Economy and Markets

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Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


04/20/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Optimismo global y el “pagadiós” argentino

“Entre otras “esperanzas”, el Gobierno apostaba a que la depresión global lograra que los acreedores se conformaran con mucho menos, pero, en todo caso, fallaron en el timing, porque vuelve el optimismo, aunque, en mi opinión, es algo apresurado. Si bien el virus parece que va camino de controlarse, no está claro que los gobiernos levantarán tan fácilmente las restricciones que destruyen a la economía. Mientras que los “Treasuries” tienen un rendimiento de hasta 1.265% anual (el de 30 años) y son considerados muy seguros, Wall Street no ha parado de subir.”

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


04/19/2020 - Charles Hugh Smith: The Shift to a Decentralized Economy

“This shift to decentralized, networked remote work will have a devastating impact on the commercial office sector. A very large percentage of the already-excessive supply of office space will be surplus, and it won’t be cheap or easy to transform offices into residential living spaces.”

LINK to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


04/15/2020 - Sitka Capital on the Implications of the Virus and Central Bank Actions

“It is difficult to understate what this means for the value of the dollar over the coming decade. The period of “strong inflation” during the 1940s and 1950s, highlighted in the chart above, occurred while monetary policy was effectively taken over by the U.S. Treasury during another national emergency, and what we saw over the past month as the Fed put out fires in the bond market and coordinated with the Treasury to create special purpose vehicles and various lending programs was reminiscent of the earliest steps taken in that direction in the 1930s.”

LINK HERE to the PDF Letter

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


04/14/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Wall Street, Argentina hacia la híper y …

Muchos inversores apuestan a que unas cuantas empresas irán a la quiebra y, entonces, las que sobrevivan aumentarán su participación. Y para eso es muy importante la solvencia, ya que nadie sabe durante cuánto tiempo las economías globales permanecerán reprimidas por los Estados, la verdadera causa de la crisis y no el coronavirus propiamente.

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


04/13/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Exagerado optimismo, la plata y el bitcoin?

“Podría terminar de confirmarse lo que muchos hemos venido diciendo desde hace tiempo y esto es que, finalmente, la pandemia del coronavirus pasará naturalmente y con menos muertos que por influenza. China anunció el primer día sin fallecimientos y personalmente he corroborado que la situación allí se normaliza. Se nivela la pandemia en zonas como Nueva York, según su gobernador, y en lugares clave de Europa en tanto que Anthony Fauci, principal asesor de Trump, se muestra confiado.”

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


04/09/2020 - Guy Haselmann: The Dawning of a New Future

“The Coronavirus exposed many vulnerabilities. Going forward, governments and businesses will rethink the means of production and global trade. The choice will be less about economic efficiencies and more about resilience. National and geopolitical imperatives will dominate economic imperatives.”

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Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.