“The dramatic rise in RAW MATERIAL PRICES is not because of a strong global economy but because of some economic actor of major influence stockpiling massive amounts of everything needed for productive inputs.”
02/24/2021 - Yra Harris: Was It the Fool On the Hill?
02/23/2021 - David Rosenberg – “We’re Getting Closer to a Breaking Point”
“The markets believe we’re going to have a post pandemic party that’s going to last to perpetuity. I’m saying, maybe it lasts for a few months and then reality will set in. And then, we have to assess how these massive deficits and debts are going to be regressed. At the peak of the last bubble in 2007, the level of global debt outstanding was $100 trillion. Here we are at the peak of the next bubble, 13 years later, and it’s over $200 trillion. It has more than doubled from bubble peak to bubble peak. This is a very unstable situation. That’s why we can’t have interest rates rise for any length of time or any meaningful degree. It’s because of the implications from a debt servicing standpoint, and the impact rising rates will have on economic growth, defaults and delinquencies and so forth ..
The Oil and gas sector was undervalued and under-owned even before the pandemic, but with collapse in global demand in 2020, it has been even more unloved ..
Asia is where the opportunities are. If you are scanning the world for growth investments with P/E multiples that at least approximately match the growth outlook, you’re better off in Asia than in the developed world. The Asian countries, by and large, have dealt with the pandemic much better than most other parts of the world. Leaving politics aside, you have to face the fact that China was practically the only country in the world whose economy did not contract in 2020. They’re poised for at least 8% growth this year, and a lot of the countries in Asia are feeding off the improvement in Chinese economic growth.”
02/22/2021 - Yra Harris: Does the Market Care About Forward Guidance?
“It is Weber who adds his voice to guidance about central banks and the consequences of financial repression. The MARKET IS SENDING A MESSAGE OVER ITS CONCERNS OF THE FED’S LOWER FOR LONGER. If the NOTES AND BONDS disrupt the FED‘s battle against full employment, what will be the outcome? Logically, it’s YCC for central banks cannot allow markets to thwart their WILL.”
02/19/2021 - Felix Zulauf: On Crazy Policies and Commodities
“The most attractive assets are long-duration assets: the shares of companies that can achieve sales and earnings growth even in difficult economic and political environments, and real assets. Growth stocks are highly valued, but if bond yields and inflation stay low for the next five years, these stocks will do well.
I invest in themes. I like the agriculture theme. Jim Rogers said years ago at a Barron’s Roundtable that farmers were aging, and there weren’t new farmers taking their place. We have fewer farms in the world today, and they have to produce more, for more people. There are shortages everywhere, and climate events are affecting harvests and causing prices to spike.
I am also quite bullish on oil. The U.S. dollar probably has about 30% downside over the next five years. That is bullish for commodities in general, which are traded in U.S. dollars. I could see West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude, trading at $100 a barrel in four years, because the Biden administration’s policies are against drilling for new oil.”
02/17/2021 - Danielle Lacalle – Inflation Is Back. Protect Yourself
“If you want to protect your savings, gold, and silver are important assets to own, especially the physical asset, not just financial instruments. Equities only help while monetary policy continues to create asset inflation, but that can stop abruptly when money supply growth coincides with nominal GDP growth, as the multiple expansion effect dies. Sovereign bonds are not a solution as both the price and the yield make them the most expensive asset. As such, gold, silver, cryptocurrencies, and inflation-linked bonds may be ways to protect wealth against fiat currency debasement.”
02/17/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Sustainability in Sports – Polo – Fred Mannix, Pierre Genecand and Baron Richard Drasche-Wartinberg
02/12/2021 - Yra Harris: Extra! Extra! Read All About It
“The importance for NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND is that leaves the use of YIELD CURVE CONTROL as the next tool to be utilized by the FED so as to prevent the rise in the long-end of the Treasury curve.”
02/11/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Godfrey Bloom, Claudio Grass and Yra Harris on Precious Metals, Currencies and Economic Challenges
02/07/2021 - Yra Harris: At the Fed, Jobs is Priority Number One
“FED FUNDS RATE WILL NOT BE BOOSTED any time soon but the question that will be at the forefront of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND will be: HOW LONG DOES THE FED ALLOW THE CURVE TO STEEPEN and enacts Yield Curve Control? For me that is key to the dollar and of course precious metals and commodity prices. Currently, U.S. EQUITIES are the most prescient as fiscal stimulus coupled with a large pool of domestic savings are riding the wave of a FED induced sea of liquidity.”
02/07/2021 - Stan Druckenmiller on the Markets, Equities, Inflation Trade
02/03/2021 - Yra Harris – What Constitutes Market Forces?
“Janet, what constitutes market forces? There will be no short squeeze on dollar positions regardless of what the banner headlines say on CNBC. Redittors have never met the printing power of the world’s central banks.”
02/03/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Reddit, la rebelión del mercado contra el “establishment”
“La insurrección coordinada en Wallstreetbets representa una nueva realidad para Wall Street: el mercado son los millones de personas que se mueven a su antojo. Después de GameStop los foreros han puesto sus ojos en la plata.”
02/01/2021 - Yra Harris: A Silver Lining In the Madness?
“WATCH FOR PLATINUM AS A POTENTIAL UPSIDE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SHORTED BY MANY AS A HEDGE AGAINST THE OTHER PRECIOUS METALS AS THE PLATINUM/GOLD SPREAD REVEALS. PL/GOLD closed at -$766 while its 200-month moving average is a POSITIVE $498 so that gives you perspective as to where the metals market are at. Platinum, like silver,has been in deficit of late as demand has out-stripped supply according to metals dealers at KITCO.
Something else to watch. There was a BLOOMBERG article published January 12 that showed the Russian Central Bank “FOR THE FIRST TIME HOLDS MORE GOLD THAN U.S. DOLLARS IN $583 billion reserves.” The story notes that “gold made up 23% of the central bank’s stockpile” and the “share of dollar assets dropped to 22%, down from more than 40% in 2018.”
Imagine if the REDDIT crowd gets assistance in its efforts from some of the world’s central banks. Wall Street is being challenged by some dynamic forces. Be static at your risk but trade it, don’t invest it.”
01/28/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Charles Hugh Smith on Is 2021 an Echo of 1641?
01/24/2021 - Fine Art as an Asset Class – Prince Charles Henri de Lobkowicz and Alec Oxenford
Throughout history and especially in times of pandemics and challenging societal times – wealth has been preserved and transmitted from generation to generation through real property/farmland, precious metals and fine art. We focus in this podcast on fine art:
01/22/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg – Negative Interest Rates, Commodities, Inflation, Gold
Emphasizes hard assets for protection from negative interest rates .. commodities, land, precious metals, equities .. also commodities have supply constraints .. points out gold is “half commodity and half money” .. “I think we are going to see an outburst of inflation” – inflation in terms of asset inflation and some consumer price inflation .. “I don’t see a central bank buying Bitcoin instead of gold” ..
01/22/2021 - Yra Harris: Central Bank Poker
“In a podcast I recorded in October 2016 with Rick Santelli and Anthony Cruedele I was asked about BITCOIN. I maintained that the BLOCKCHAIN element was interesting and needed more consideration but a currency aspect made me nervous BECAUSE SOVEREIGN GOVERNMENTS WOULD PROTECT THEIR CURRENCY MONOPOLY. That is, a sovereign’s duty and obligation. I said I feared that if the U.S. said a terrorist attack was funded by BITCOIN the government would make it illegal for after all the U.S. government made owning gold illegal in 1933-34.
It was YELLEN who suggested Congress curtail the use of BITCOIN amid terrorism concerns. My advice is trade it but be careful making it an investment. I am suggesting to be careful with this asset class even as it soars. Governments hate competition. Article 1, section 8, clause 5 of the U.S. Constitution: “To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin.”
01/20/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg: On Inflation, Real Rates and Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
“Persistent and continued dollar weakness is likely to trigger a mass rush out of dollars on the part of foreign central banks, which now hold 60% of their reserves in dollars. If only a small portion of this shift finds its way into gold, the impact on the price of bullion would be highly significant.”
01/20/2021 - Yra Harris: The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow
“The recent steepening of the yield curve–duration moving yield higher out on the curve–by MARKET FORCES will result in real concerns by the Treasury and the FED. HOW HIGH DO 10s and 30s have to rise before the FED acts? I don’t know but we will be watching.”