“The problem remains that the FED bent to the consultations of this illustrious non-elected group with potential for great financial impact. It further confirmed my hypothesis that the FED cannot lead the move to end QE but must be a laggard or suffer the consequences of an overly strong DOLLAR.”
08/03/2021 - Yra Harris: The Fed As G-30 Proxy?
07/27/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on Inflation
“If inflation keeps accelerating beyond their 2.5% per annum expectation, which in our view is guaranteed, increases of 1/4% in Fed funds will be implemented on a quarterly basis. Then monthly. There is a long way to go, and a long time necessary, to reach a funds rate of just 2.5%, the last peak (2019). And, dear reader, that won’t cut it when inflation is running 500 to 800 basis points higher. It’s useless for us to speculate any further. It will be a long time, measured in years, before the Fed regains control of prices. During this long period of time, inflation will rage and consumer purchasing power will shrink as wages struggle to keep up with prices. Economic activity will be severely affected by this loss of purchasing power, and slowdowns and recessions will follow. Corporate margins will shrink. Price controls, always useless and counterproductive, will almost certainly reappear on the scene. The evils of social inequality will be compounded, and social unrest will follow… There are very few places to which we will be able to escape and find safety in the coming financial and economic disaster. But recognizing the problem is the first step and we believe that we have recognized it.”
07/27/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – ¿El que apuesta al blue pierde?
” Como venimos anticipando, por ejemplo, en la nota “La economía argentina en situación muy complicada”, la inflación global está tomando un vuelo muy importante (y, por cierto, hay un gran negocio dentro de esto, ya que implica billones de dólares emitidos y regalados a los amigos del poder, que explica buena parte de la “pandemia”).”
07/26/2021 - Yra Harris: Trade Complications (The Power of the Nation-State)
“IF THE FED IS THE FIRST MOVER OF THE MAJOR TO RAISE RATES AND CUT QE THEN THE DOLLAR WILL RISE BECAUSE OF THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GLOBAL DOLLAR-DENOMINATED DEBT. A rise in the DOLLAR would lead to declining profits for U.S. multinational corporations, as well as emerging markets having to raise capital thus initiating a global liquidation of various assets. This would naturally mean a correction in equity markets. I guess we’ll see this week as we get another FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.”
07/23/2021 - Yra Harris: What A Week (Or Was It a Month)
“This is it. They can’t raise rates too soon because there’s too much debt, which has been supported by massive asset purchases instituted by all the world’s major central banks.”
07/22/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Judd Hirschberg analyzes the Financial Markets
07/20/2021 - Russell Napier – We are entering a Time of Financial Repression
“The foundations for where we are today were laid in 1998. The book explains where our current predicament came from and how the financial repression we now live with is a fusion of the two forms of capitalism, social capitalism and financial capitalism, that did battle in Asia in 1997 and 1998.”
07/20/2021 - Yra Harris: Are You Ready When Delta Is?
“While traders are certainly cautious there is NO PANIC. The primary difference from 16 months ago is of course the FED having moved to the ZERO BOUND so yields are just too low at this juncture to attract those in search of a haven at any price. The critical question remains: IF THE ONSET OF THE DELTA VARIANT INCREASES GEOMETRICALLY, WHAT WILL BE THE RESPONSE OF THE MONETARY AND FISCAL AUTHORITIES? WHAT TOOLS REMAIN IN THE BOX? THESE ARE THE CRITICAL ISSUES CONFRONTING ALL INVESTORS WITH U.S. RATES AT ZERO.”
07/14/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Peter Boockvar and Yra Harris on the Financial Markets
07/13/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Grains and food, the inflation paradox
” ironically, as bulk food prices fall, many experts, such as Michael Snyder, recommend hoarding food from supermarkets: “For decades, Americans have not had to worry about food prices… Our supermarkets have always been full, and prices would always be roughly the same. Unfortunately, things are changing…”.”
07/06/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Gerard Minack and Yra Harris on the Global Economy and Financial Markets
07/06/2021 - Yra Harris: A Question to Ponder
“Do China and Russia have state authorities investing in the markets?
If the answer is yes then global investors have many issues to consider. The use of massive amounts of leverage (perfectly legal) utilized by Sovereign Wealth Funds and national pension funds have the power to distort prices as much as the involvement by the FED, ECB and BOJ to cause major distortions in the credit markets .. THE FED MAY NOT BE THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN.”
07/02/2021 - Inflation Alert: Bank of Canada fully monetizing Canada’s deficit spending?
06/28/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – The Argentinian Economy in an Exceedingly Difficult Situation
“El repunte de la inflación a nivel global sin dudas afectará a la Argentina, aunque mucho más graves son sus problemas internos. Sucede que, los astronómicos programas fiscales proporcionados por las economías más potentes están inflando los precios globales de manera importante. La suba del IPC (consecuencia de la inflación) en EE.UU. durante mayo alcanzó el 5% interanual, mucho para un país desarrollado y, sin dudas, esto recién comienza. Aunque, por otro lado, la ralentización en el crecimiento económico provocará cierta baja en los precios (el IPC) a pesar del aumento de la inflación (devaluación intrínseca de la moneda por exceso de emisión).”
06/23/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Paul Brodsky and Yra Harris on the Financial Markets, Commodities, Currencies and Cryptocurrencies
06/22/2021 - Yra Harris – Plus ça Change, Plus C’est La Même Chose (An Ode to Jerome)
“Powell cherry-picked his transitory inflation indicators by specifically mentioning LUMBER and USED CAR PRICES. As Simon and Garfunkel sang 50 years ago, a man hears what they want to hear and disregards the rest. The FED has been, is and will be GUILTY of bias fitting in an effort to control the narrative they desire to foist upon the investing public.”
06/21/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Humans, the natural market, and knowledge
“Human beings have a natural social vocation that, from the point of view of the production of material goods and services, gives birth to what we call the natural market, which, then, is made up of people who cooperate voluntarily and peacefully to improve themselves and serve society. Now this interaction leads us to find new knowledge, to discover previously unknown truths to improve our products and services in a process that has its origin in that “natural faith” that man has in the good and in the future. Knowledge that is born healthful when our emotions are accurate. Finally, knowing is loving. And in this process of knowing the Infinite is always present, reminding us of Perfection, of God.”
06/21/2021 - Yra Harris: From Tweets to Tweaks
“The “drastic” change in the DOT PLOTS also gave MONETARY HAWKS sustenance for an FOMC REVERSAL. The DOLLAR rallied as GOLD, SILVER and all the metals declined in response to the narrative to the end of the flexible adjusted inflation target (FAIT). The thinking goes that the FED will not allow inflation to run hotter for longer as has been the disposition of the market for the previous 10 months.
My sense is that this will not prove out. The massive selloff over Thursday and Friday was the result of the reflation trade being way overleveraged and margin clerks ruled the post-FOMC markets. Let the markets continue to correct for that is all part of being a successful trader.”
06/18/2021 - Adam Rozencwajg Podcast on the Fundamentals of Copper
Managing partner Adam Rozencwajg was recently featured on Financial Sense Wealth Management’s popular podcast to discuss the supply and demand backdrop for copper, and why we’ll likely see higher prices in the years ahead.
06/13/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Stock markets in an unprecedented situation
” By the way, so far, the injection of money by central banks has been phenomenal, reaching USD 100 Trillions two weeks ago.”