“THE GOLD/CURRENCY SPREADS DISCUSSED IN THIS BLOG HAVE BEEN A MARKET RESPONSE TO THE LOOMING CREDIBILITY GAP OF ALL CENTRAL BANKS IN A FIAT CURRENCY WORLD. Listening to the recent speeches from ECB and FED members there still seems to be a race to be the greatest liquidity provider in a QE-dominated world. The move to buy the precious metals in the face of rising short-term interest rates is a response to concerns that the CENTRAL BANKS HAVE NO ANSWERS TO THE TRAP OF FORWARD GUIDANCE AND ITS MANTRA OF LOWER FOR LONGER.”
11/15/2021 - Yra Harris: A Possible Solution to the Central Bank Dilemma
11/08/2021 - Yra Harris: What Turned the Markets On Friday?
“If my conjecture is correct get prepared for increased volatility, especially in the U.S. DOLLAR and precious metals, but be patient as this story will unfold in the wake of Congress finally passing an infrastructure bill.”
11/04/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini on Elon Musk and The Natural Market
“As I have explained in previous notes, succinctly, today there are three economic theories. Keysianism, which we know for being a great setter of bubbles, print and print money bills believing that this is how they move the economy and what they achieve is an artificial balloon that when explodes destroys more than what eventually achieved. Then, the neoclassical economic theory -the preferred one of market operators who distrust exaggerated issuance- whose characteristic consists in believing in the equilibrium -of the supply and demand curve- of the market, which implies that perfect knowledge has been reached and, therefore, that it is static and rigid: the company is only a productive function, a means to transform inputs into products.
nd, finally, the theory of the natural market (“free” from artificial State interference), initiated by the Spanish scholastics of the School of Salamanca of the 15th and 16th centuries, and taken up, to some extent, by the Austrian School of Economy that knows that there is no equilibrium -because there is no perfect, static knowledge- but a specific environment in permanent movement, which tends towards equilibrium at the rate at which market players find new knowledge that is always perfectible and pose new horizons that move the point of balance.”
11/01/2021 - Yra Harris: The Odious Designs of ECB Policy
“The coordination of central bank policies for the last decade is what is truly ODIOUS but its continuation provides trading and investment opportunities. Our job is to find those and put the lowest risk strategies to work. Now onto the FOMC meeting this week.”
10/29/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on Inflation and Commodities – Quarterly Podcast
10/25/2021 - Marc Faber on the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Dollar
10/18/2021 - Yra Harris: Shedding Some Light
“The FED wants to proclaim how noble its efforts have been but the DEBT created in its name have not had its day of reckoning. Maybe, that is why inflation is deemed to be the best cure to the massive problem providing a SPECTRE that haunts the world. This will be a theme for the fourth quarter here at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND.”
10/16/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on Stagflation and Commodities
“The investment implications are clear to us. With the coming “taper,” long-term rates will float upwards and eventually surpass nominal GDP annual growth rates. Commodities will continue to lead the way. Critical among them are coal, oil, and natural gas; their explosive path, driven by already favourable fundamentals, is being magnified by the consequences of ill-thought-out moves to transition to greener energy. Base metals, cotton, sugar, coffee, each for their own particular reason, will soon be making multi-year highs (cotton already has). It’s only a matter of time before precious metals join the parade. Because inflation does not follow a straight line and is quite lumpy, an index best captures the bull market. That’s what we have done to date. Still, we have also allowed ourselves to be selective, at least with respect to the most liquid and important commodities.”
10/14/2021 - Felix Zulauf, Dr. Lacy Hunt and Grant Williams on Bonds, Interest Rates, the Financial Markets
10/14/2021 - Dr. Lacy Hunt on Bond Yields
Lacy Hunt Sticks With His Message: Lower Bond Yields On the Way
“Citing unproductive debt, velocity, and a negative multiplier from government debt, Lacy Hunt sticks with his prognosis of lower treasury yields.”
by Mish Shedlock
10/05/2021 - Luke Gromen and Adam Taggart on Inflation or Default?
10/05/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Cat for hare or black for green
English: “The macro team at the very prestigious Nordea Bank sees a highly volatile global future. And it points out some important factors. Lower liquidity which implies, ironically, lower inflation, that is, less boost to the Wall Street bubble, “less money to drive valuations up”. Global growth is slowing, among other things, due to disruptions in the supply chain – such as delayed quarantines and other market violations – plus the latest energy problems that “could force a more negative scenario in the short term”.
Link Here to the Article – English
“El equipo macro del muy prestigioso Nordea Bank ve un futuro global con bastante volatilidad. Y señala algunos factores importantes. Menor liquidez lo que implica, irónicamente, menor inflación, esto es, menos impulso a la burbuja de Wall Street, “menos dinero para impulsar las valoraciones al alza”. El crecimiento global se desacelera, entre otras cosas, debido a las interrupciones en la cadena de suministros -como rezago de las cuarentenas y demás violaciones al mercado- más los últimos problemas con la energía que “podrían forzar un escenario más negativo a corto plazo”.”
Link Here to the Article – Spanish
09/21/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Entre la “invalorable” ayuda del estatista FMI y Evergrande
“De repetirse los resultados de las Paso en noviembre, entre otras cosas, el oficialismo perdería seis senadores quedándose sin quorum propio y, a eso, lo consideran muy peligroso. Si no recuerdo mal, el peronismo siempre ha tenido mayoría en el Senado desde la vuelta de la democracia en 1983. Además, en mi opinión, hace mucho ruido la fuerza con que surgió inesperadamente Milei, con un discurso muy contrario a las ideas gobernantes y a los políticos. La anti política, casi anti-Estado que gana fuerza en todo el mundo.”
09/06/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Raw materials with an uncertain future
“For decades the industrial sector in Argentina has had very little weight because the State not only takes away work capacity with so many regulations -limitations and prohibitions-, but also takes away large resources through taxation and takes almost all the financial resources.”
09/03/2021 - Yra Harris: Will It Be An Inflated Jobs Report?
“Give the markets time to digest the contextual basis of jobs and see if Powell’s concerns are realized in the August data and that employment remains well below the FED‘s mandate of full-employment. If the DATA is weak expect the DOLLAR to weaken, GOLD TO RALLY, BONDS TO ATTAIN some strength as it will push back the central bank’s desire to CURB ITS ASSET PURCHASES. It’s also LABOR DAY WEEKEND so be very patient as trading will not be as liquid as desks will be vacant due to the holiday. PATIENCE FOR THE NARRATIVE TO UNFOLD.”
08/24/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – The dollar strengthens
” Uncertainties are growing again in financial markets because, predictably, politicians are not willing to disarm the power they won – state controls and restrictions – with the excuse of the “pandemic” and, therefore, the global economic recovery slows.”
08/16/2021 - Yra Harris Latest Thoughts
“Hoping you have a great week but wish to remind traders that after last Sunday night’s meltdown in the GOLD and SILVER, the GOLD CLOSED HIGHER ON THE WEEK, even as the FED‘s language grew more hawkish in terms of beginning QE tapering. The U.S. DOLLAR also failed to rally after the initial GOLD bashing, the dollar index closing lower on week. The hawkish rhetoric failed to provide lift to traditional vehicles of positive dollar asset classes.
This is just something to watch even as global sovereign BOND markets remained in nominal real territory: German Bunds -0.46%; French Oats -0.13%; Netherlands -0.34%; Greek 0.55%; and Italy 0.54%.
Of course the BOJ, RNBZ, RBA and BOE all have interest rates on overnight money near zero. This is the predicament for the FED in being the the first to remove liquidity. Interest rates are low everywhere and the BOJ and ECB have openly stated their reticence to begin pulling back asset purchases. This is the global financial system with which we go back to beach. Will the SRF allow the FED to reduce QE without leading to a DOLLAR RALLY? Only time will tell.”
08/09/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Wall Street camino de nuevos máximos?
” Cuenta Ezequiel Burgo que la inversión extranjera directa en Argentina registra los niveles más bajos desde la crisis de 2001. Según el BCRA, hasta junio de 2021 ingresaron US$ 748 M al país durante los últimos doce meses en concepto de ‘inversión directa de no residentes’. Una cifra francamente irrisoria y que, obviamente, se debe a casos muy puntuales y de mantenimiento de emprendimientos ya existentes mostrando que en el fondo hay desinversión en Argentina.”
08/09/2021 - Yra Harris: Bye Bye, Jerome Powell
“The noose tightens for a strong DOLLAR will create havoc on so many of the world’s most vulnerable economies. When does not fault of their own splash across the OCEANS? Those espousing an end to the global reflation trade due to FED policy pivoting be very cautious. All those in favor of a strong dollar raise your hands, otherwise keep the MUSIC PLAYING AND THE WALL STREET CROWD KEEP DANCING. Hey Joe, you may wish to change partners.”
08/06/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on Inflation and Impacts to the Economy, Equities and Commodities
45 min Podcast – Link Here