Media
04/24/2023 - Daniel Lacalle – GOLD IS MONEY. FIAT Is Credit
04/24/2023 - Zoltan Pozsar Says Commodities Are Poised for Growth
Link to Another Related Article
03/23/2023 - Article: Here’s Why Another Banking Crisis is Unlikely… We’ll Get Inflation Instead
“If the central banks opt to keep the system afloat – bad debts, losses and all – what we inevitably get is inflation and a gradual collapse of the currency.”
03/21/2023 - Yra Harris – How Many `Whatever It Takes’ …
“STOP DEPENDING ON EQUITY MARKETS AS THE TELL IN FINANCIAL CONDITIONS it is a methodology promoted by the purveyors of asset peddling. PAUSE AND TAKE A MEASURE OF THE FINANCIAL UNCERTAINTY INFECTING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM. The political backlash you will be facing from those warning about how workers will pay the price in unemployment while the RENTIERS GET BAILED OUT. It is FIRST REPUBLIC ON THE BOIL NOW BUT WITH LESS LENDING AND HIGHER RATES ON THE HORIZON THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE LENDERS WILL BE NEXT. IS 25 BASIS POINTS WORTH IT? Where is your cost-benefit analysis?”
03/21/2023 - George Gammon – Biggest Rate Decision in History
03/06/2023 - Legendary Global Strategist Chris Wood
02/27/2023 - Russell Napier on Financial Repression
02/05/2023 - Former Glencore CEO on ESG and Sustainability
01/31/2023 - Daniel Lacalle – Gold Soars and Precious Metals Rise on Money Destruction
01/09/2023 - Zoltan Pozsar Essay Links on War and …
- War and Peace (11 mins)
- War and Interest Rates (26 mins)
- War and Industrial Policy (24 mins)
- War and Commodity Encumbrance (23 mins)
- War and Currency Statecraft (17 mins)
01/06/2023 - Daniel Lacalle – Digital Currencies, Global Control. Recession, Lat Am Lost Decade and Price Controls
01/03/2023 - Daniel Lacalle – Global Debt Crisis in 2023?
12/19/2022 - Louis-Vincent Gave on Brazil Media – in English after short Portuguese Intro
12/19/2022 - Louis-Vincent Gave – Investment Themes for 2023
11/29/2022 - Yra Harris – Cui Bono? (Who Stands to Gain?)
“The QE program fomented by Ben Bernanke in response to the 2008 financial crisis ran interference for the ECB, BOE, BOJ and others so as to prevent their currencies from rapidly appreciating against a DOLLAR. That is, massive amounts of liquidity were injected into the financial system to “forestall” deflation. The US and Europe experienced a deflation but the FED allowed for all to keep the monetary spigots wide open. The only country that experienced actual deflation was/is Japan. Now that global inflation is the result of massive liquidity infusions the question remains how to extract the liquidity without causing too much stress on a global system awash in QE-fueled debt.
The FED seems to be intent on raising rates ever HIGHER in an effort to break inflation, but maybe it’s time to halt the rate rises and increase the pace of the balance sheet runoff? This is the prevailing question as we head into 2023, but for us we will rely on the wisdom of Louis Gave : We adapt, not forecast.
Last week, Bank of Austria President and ECB Board member Robert Holzmann said in a Financial Times story he favored a 75 basis point increase at the next meeting in December. But Holzmann also warned that it is imperative that the ECB begin shrinking its BOND PORTFOLIO “before it had finished raising rates, adding that it is important to avoid short-term borrowing costs rising above long-term ones.” Holzmann wants to avoid an inverted yield curve because “it would be a challenge for Europe’s banking sector, which relies on being able to borrow cheaply in the short term to make longer-term loans at higher rates.” As Holzmann said, “We have to make sure it doesn’t get to that point.”’
11/28/2022 - Felix Zulauf – Latest Thoughts
11/27/2022 - Daniel Lacalle – COLLAPSE. EUROPE ENERGY CRISIS GETS WORSE
11/21/2022 - Yra Harris – Recapping the Last Two Weeks
“As I have warned, the world needs to be cognizant of the fallout from the Swiss National Bank pulling the PEG on the EUR/CHF back in January 2015, which wreaked havoc on Eastern European citizens with massive Swiss franc liabilities because of the FED and ultra-low interest rates. Since global central banks have been flooding the financial system with liquidity, we are in a new era that cannot be modeled. So it’s interesting that the talk continues of inflation waning but rates still react more to FED jawboning. The US 2/10 yield curve closed at its most inverted level in 40 years, even as the DOLLAR has corrected about 5% from its recent highs.
This is something to watch as the FED continues talking asset prices lower, especially the EQUITY markets. Yet stocks continue to defy Bullard/Kashkari. IF I RAN THE FED, RATE HIKES WOULD STOP AT 4% WHILE DOUBLING THE SIZE OF QT (removing $180 billion a month). The POWELL FED is on the verge of making the same mistake it made in 2018 with what Stanley Druckenmiller called the double-shotgun approach. The inverted curves are telling you Jerome: It’s time to rein in excess liquidity in an effort to bring prices down to the level of fed funds. Market signals are a valuable tool if the policy makers would heed them.”
10/26/2022 - Economist Nouriel Roubini on the Economy and the USD
08/28/2022 - Dr. Albert Friedberg Quarterly Report
“Until the Fed shows some understanding of the issues here discussed and until they move to implement policies that will remove inflationary pressures and incentives to misallocate resources, we see no need to abandon our investment stance. It can be summed up as bullish on inflation and not bullish on growth.”
