Media
12/08/2023 - Felix Zulauf Market Outlook
12/08/2023 - Louis-Vincent Gave Market Outlook
12/04/2023 - Dr. Marc Faber – Playbook for Navigating a 1970s-Like Market (Full Interview)
Link here to the Interview and Transcript
12/04/2023 - Dr. Anas Alhajji – Back To Earth: Reality of the Energy Transition
- Data indicates that future demand for oil and gas is UNDERESTIMATED, while demand destruction is HYPED.
- Global energy demand is increasing, making decarbonization more difficult to achieve, and the process of replacing fossil fuels slower.
- Despite massive spending on renewables in the last two decades, fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy in the world, even in Europe.
- Coal remains the dominant source of electricity in India and China.
- Oil is rarely used in power generation in the OECD, China, and India. Doubling or tripling solar and wind energy sources will have a very limited impact on oil demand. However, the failure of renewable energy, and consequent power shortages, will have a significant impact on oil demand.
- As LNG prices reached a record high in 2022, oil use in power generation increased. The level of substitution among various energy sources last year was unprecedented.
Link Here to the Free Substack Article
11/12/2023 - Dr. Marc Faber – Headed for a Breakdown, Disappointing Market Returns
11/10/2023 - WTFinance with Dr. Marc Faber
11/09/2023 - Chris Wood Bullish Long Term on India
10/31/2023 - Louis-Vincent Gave on China and Investing in the Fertile Crescent/Global South
10/16/2023 - Dr. Albert Friedberg Conference Call on the Economy and the Financial Markets
- Latest views on the Economy and the Financial Markets
- Extent of monetary stimulation (Covid/Post-Covid) underestimated, effects into 2023
- Sees some deflationary trends developing, this will become unexpected by the markets over the next 6 months
- Is long on bonds – sees lower yields coming
- As deflation trends emerge, likely the USD weakens .. likely to be good for gold
- China and other countries via central banks/govts buying gold – adding gold to diversification (targeting 15% to 25% of reserves)
- Owning gold costs 5% a year on carry
- Inflating the currency is the likely way out of massive government debt
- Has some long positions in Argentinian banks, which are at very depressed levels
- Sees potential opportunities in Argentina if monetary conditions change positively
- Highlights estimates of Argentinians holding $250 Billion USD under mattresses and overseas – if monetary conditions in Argentina improve, some of these funds could repatriate, fostering a boom in Argentina
Link Here to the Conference Call Replay
10/10/2023 - Kuppy Kupperman and Louis-Vincent Gave on Emerging Markets and Uranium
Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, founder and CIO of Praetorian Capital, and Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research to learn their global economic outlook and why they think a boom is coming for emerging markets and uranium
10/02/2023 - The Metals behind the various types of Renewable Energies
09/15/2023 - Argentina’s next President could be Javier Milei, Austrian School Economist – Libertarian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oxt2MzaVFOIClick here to view Interview on Twitter
Here are some podcasts we have done with Javier Milei:
09/10/2023 - Marko Papic: «China Has to Convince Financial Markets that It Is not Suicidal»
«China Has to Convince Financial Markets that It Is not Suicidal»
Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, talks about the solution to China’s economic weakness, the Fed leadership’s concerns, and his arguments why the commodity supercycle is far from over.
08/29/2023 - Group Meeting with Jefferies Global Strategist Chris Wood
07/18/2023 - Marko Papić: «Everything Is in Place for a Capex-Driven Commodity Super-Cycle»
“There are two countries producing nickel: Indonesia or Russia. That’s basically it. And Indonesia has already telegraphed its intention. They banned the export of raw, unrefined nickel and forced China to invest $20 billion worth of infrastructure to move its nickel production to Indonesia. Next, they’re going to ban the export of refined nickel as well, so other countries have to build their battery factories in Indonesia. And then, they’re going to wait another couple of years and ban the export of batteries, so the manufacturing of EVs has to take place in Indonesia too. That’s why I’m super bullish on Indonesia, they know what they’re doing. ”
07/18/2023 - Yra Harris: So Many Piles of Dry Tinder
“Why is the Swiss franc so strong against the dollar, as well as many other currencies? The current dollar/Swiss rate is challenging the January 12, 2015 weekly close of 0.8588, which was the week the SNB pulled the floor out from under the Eur/Chf cross, sending the Swiss franc soaring as the market had been heavily short FRANCS.
Yes, the dollar has been under pressure for a few weeks but why the Swiss with its interest rates of 1.75%? It may be that the SNB is SELLING some of its equity holdings (Apple and others) in an effort to take advantage of the recent global equity rally. When the SNB does QT they are selling assets that have generated huge profits, unlike the FED and the ECB, which own sovereign debt that is severely underwater.
We won’t know if this THEORY holds until we see the next release of the SNB’s balance sheet but something to watch. The Swiss may be the world’s greatest alchemists as they printed money and purchased real assets/corporations.”
06/30/2023 - Larry McDonald: «Value over Growth is the Trade for the Second Half of 2023»
“Larry McDonald, creator of «The Bear Traps Report» and New York Times best-selling author, thinks inflation will remain much more stubborn than investors currently hope. He explains why he spots the best opportunities in attractively valued energy, metals and mining, and emerging markets stocks.”
06/26/2023 - U.S. Losing Its Key Export Markets
Mish Shedlock:
“United States Top 10 Exports
- [Petroleum Products] Mineral fuels including oil: US$378.6 billion (18.4% of total exports)
- Machinery including computers: $229.6 billion (11.1%)
- Electrical machinery, equipment: $197.7 billion (9.6%)
- Vehicles: $134.9 billion (6.5%)
- Aircraft, spacecraft: $102.8 billion (5%)
- Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $99.1 billion (4.8%)
- Gems, precious metals: $92.5 billion (4.5%)
- Pharmaceuticals: $83.5 billion (4%)
- Plastics, plastic articles: $83.3 billion (4%)
- Organic chemicals: $51.1 billion (2.5%)
The above list represents 2022, from United States Top 10 Exports
Biden Policy Impact
- Biden energy policies would kill #1, and curtail # 9 and #10.
- Bidens restrictions on sensitive machinery and chips will reduce #2, #3, #5, and #6 exports to China and Russia.
China itself seeks to curtail #4 and #5. What remains are gems, precious metals, and pharmaceuticals.
I am surprised grain exports are not in the top 10. But as Biden has riled China on a number of fronts, it has increasingly turned to Brazil.”
04/25/2023 - Dr. Albert Friedberg Quarterly Update
04/25/2023 - Yra Harris: Why Ueda Needs To Raise Rates Or Expand Yield Curve Control
“The world’s central banks OUGHT to suggest to Ueda to raise its YCC ceiling BECAUSE THE WEAK YEN FROM THE CARRY TRADE IS CAUSING GRAVE DANGER FOR THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYTEM. The ongoing carry trade elevates global assets — stocks and bonds — suggesting that financial conditions are still to loose. In a previous blog post I suggested that the FED and ECB should not use the equity prices as the BAROMETER of financial conditions but look at other metrics like consumer debt and certainly the rollover of commercial real estate loans.”
