Special Guest: Doug Noland – Credit Analyst

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“Financial Repression is fundamental to current policy to try and sustain a global credit bubble… Policies have become ever more desperate as the credit bubble has gone global! It is a matter of policy makers distorting the incentives, especially the financial incentives. It is particularly painful for savers. Policy makers want to drive money out of savers into risk markets by creating incentives for speculation and leveraging to reflate the system and generate significant credit growth.“

“It is flawed economic doctrine, flawed policy making and goes back a long way.”

• After the 1987 Stock Market Crash the Greenspan Fed flooded the market with liquidity,
• We then had the late 80’s excesses and that bubble burst,
• In the early 90;s the Greenspan Fed came in and aggressively slashed interest rates and created a steep yield curve so the banks could borrow cheap and lend dear,
• It created leveraged speculation,
• We have been in serial bubbles ever since then. Each gets bigger and each post reflationary effort is even more extraordinary.
• The ‘Once in 100 Year Flood’ was not the 2008 Crisis. We are in an even bigger bubble now. It is a Global Bubble. It is at the heart of money and credit. When the next crisis occurs the policies of Financial Repression won’t have much of an impact unfortunately.

THE MARKET BASED CREDIT SYSTEM

“Back in the 1990’s I was obsessed with trying to understand how an impaired banking system from the early 1990’s morphed into this new age financial system that was fueling historic prosperity and a bull market. By the late 1990’s I was convinced we had fundamentally changed finance. That uniquely for the first time in history we had global credit that was unconstrained. The quality and quantity of credit was unrestrained. There was no gold standard, there was no Bretton Woods Monetary regime, there was not even any ad hoc. dollar reserve system to restrain credit. Unlike historically when credit was dominated by bank lending, this new credit that developed in the 1990’s was market based – securitization, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Derivatives, Wall Street Finance. I was convinced that credit which is unstable would see this new credit highly unstable.”

“I believed the government would reign this credit in. I had no inkling that the government would accommodate this type of credit and use this type of credit for reflationary policy. That is really how it got away from them! Accommodating financial leveraging and speculation etc.”

WE HAVE DISREGARDED THE VULNERABILITIES OF CAPITALISM

“I am very much a free market person. I want the market to dictate price. As much as possible I want the government out of it. I look at the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere. The Financial Sphere needs to be carefully regulated. You cannot have unconstrained credit! You cannot have a Financial Sphere that inflates at a whim because that distorts the pricing mechanism.”

“I fear that when the crisis collapses the system it is going to be folks like us and our listeners who will have defend Capitalism by saying:

“Capitalism wasn’t to blame. It was a run away Financial Sphere and poor Policy making in managing money & credit that was the culprit!”

Capitalism is not flawed but instead has vulnerabilities. We cannot disregard these vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities are in Credit. We have disregarded the vulnerabilities within Capitalism. We have not separated the real economy pricing mechanism which operates very differently in the Financial Sphere.

This extensive discussion covers a wide range of subjects including:

• THE BUILD-UP OF SYSTEMIC RISK
• A CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE IS AHEAD
• WHY WE HAVE RECORD ARTIFICIAL HOUSEHOLD WEALTH
• FINANCIAL FRAGILITY – As long as Credit is expanding things looks good. But it camouflages the underlying financial fragility.
• 2008 WAS ABOUT PRIVATE CREDIT – THE NEXT CRISIS WILL BE ABOUT PUBLIC CREDIT
• THE GLOBAL BUBBLE HAS NOW BEEN PIERCED

“You can now expect the unexpected from Policy Makers”

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Marshall Auerback – Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“Financial Repression can be a fairly loaded word. I think you can say that anytime you have a central bank which is a monopoly of anything, which can establish a price, you can have repression. I am less concerned with the labels and more concerned with the fact that we have been in response to this unprecedented crisis, been increasingly undertaking exotic experiments on behalf of the central banks. Most notably Quantitative Easing. It has had the effect of repressing interest rates or keeping them low. This of course is great for borrowers, but has the unintended by-product of depriving people of income.”

A FLAWED SYSTEM

Financial Repression is an experiment that ” is flawed in terms of the economics behind it. I don’t think it does much to help elevate aggregate demand (spending power) and it turns out to be a large implicit subsidy for the financial sector.”

“As far as I am concerned we are already over-financed as an economy and do too much for the banks anyway. It is really a fundamentally mistaken policy approach!”

TRENDS SINCE THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

“We have had three rounds of Quantitative Easing by the Fed, we have undertaken similar policies in Japan and more recently in Europe. If you look at the impact it has been rather minimal! The Japanese economy is still pretty stagnant. The US is growing but I believe that has less to do with QE and more to do with the fact that we had a fairly robust fiscal policy response after the crisis in 2009. Likewise in Europe we have been mired in depression like numbers which is worse than anything we had in the 1930s. It hasn’t worked but we keep trying it.”

“The economics behind it are flawed. it is based on the notion that if a bank buys a bond and puts reserves into the banking system that somehow it can encourage the banker to lend. We actually don’t lend out reserves and are only used for interbank lending amongst banks. Also lending is a two way process. You have to have a credit worthy borrower and a credit worthy lender. If you have individuals or business that are piled down with debt they may not be very credit worthy or they may be less inclined to take on more debt”

“You want to engender rising employment, rising income so people aren’t as reliant on credit. I think that is the problem our system has had over the last 30 years. We have become Credit centric versus Income centric!”

“We have been conducting this ‘pulmonary resuscitation’ to a fundamentally dead financial system rather than use the money to revive the economy and transition it into more productive economic activity.”

CONTROL FRAUD

“When you have an economy that is over financialized and banks account for a disproportionate amounts of activity, and you have a compensation incentive system that is highly dependent on share price appreciation, then you provide a very perverse incentive for business not to invest in productive business affairs but to use excessive cash to buyback shares.”

“What is worse is you begin to use all sorts of accounting tricks. This is what Professor Bill Black calls ‘Control Fraud’ . You get a form of casino capitalism. Actually, the casinos in Las Vegas are regulated more favorably than the banks are.”

PRIVATE DEBT BUILD-UP

Marshall Auerback believes we have had excessive build-up in Corporate and Household debt. “When you have a demand shock, then servicing that debt becomes a problem. You end up with a large build-up of public debt in response.” Unfortunately those who benefited now want cuts to things like Medicare that were not the cause of the problem. “Its a pretty perverse example of the wrong headed people running our system.”

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Rick Rule – Chairman and Chief Executive Officers of Sprott US Holdings

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“Financial controls or ‘trickery’ imposed on the public by the state.”

“There is certainly financial ‘trickery’ imposed on us by large financial institutions but they do that utilizing the state or in conjunction with the state. The practical manifestation of Financial Repression are all around us. I would suggest that a large part of the manadate of the Securites and Exchange Commission as an example is to effect barriers to entry to smaller participants in the securities business.

The most egregious forms of Financial Repression are in the first instance:

• Tax (which many regard as slavery – I don’t but regard it as extortion!)
• The Manipulation of Interest Rates and
• The Manipulation of the Currency.”

“The interest rates payable to savers relative to the real rate of depreciation of the purchasing power of – pick one: the dollar, the euro, the yen – are despicable!”

ALAN GREENSPAN

“As recently as October last year I had the pleasure of listening to Alan Greenspan who ironically (despite the fact he is a vowed libertarian and architect of a lot of this Financial Repression) and he said something very stark too the audience! He said that a sound currency is not consistent with a representative democracy. A sound currency benefits the productive class and savers. In a representative democracy most of the people are spenders. Low interest rates and a depreciating currency aids the spenders and borrowers. It doesn’t aid the savers. In that context Financial Repression is understandable and I’m afraid inevitable.”

INVESTMENT IN LONG TERM PRODUCTIVE ASSETS

Rick Rule feels that the perverse incentives from manipulated data has resulted in a lack of investment within the US in Productive Assets that would allow the employment of technology and the real wages of workers to rise.

The reason is:

1- If you aren’t seeing underlining demand and top line sales growth in your business, why would invest in productive capacity?

2- The US Tax Code is anti-growth. Depreciation schedules are much more investor friendly even in socialist countries today that in the US.

EXTRAORDINARY FAITH & “RETURN FREE RISK”

“We appear to be in a place in history and the economy where there is extraordianary faith in the big thinkers in the world – the Merkels, the Obamas, the Greenspans, the Yellens. It is partly this faith that is allowing them to keep these interest rates this low. It is a belief that the big thinkers of the world “stick handled” societies global financial crisis of 2008 and by managing the levers of the economy, managed to save us from ourselves. I would of course disagree with that diagnosis (but no one cares much what I think). I certainly believe that savers will tire of buying financial instruments that have no real yield. If you think about the value proposition as an example offered up by the bellwether savings instrument world wide (the US 10 Year Treasury) yielding 1.8%. What that means is the Fed absolutely, positively guarantees you 1.8% per year for 10 years. The difficulty I have with that is that even at their ascribed CPI inflation rate, what they are promising you is 20 basis points a year in real yield. Jim Grant famously described that as “Return Free Risk”.

GOLD

“I don’t know what is going to happen with gold short term”. “What will move Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium are first and foremost is a reduction in confidence in the US dollar and the US 10 Year Treasury. It important to understand that gold doesn’t need to win the war. It just needs to lose the war less badly!”

“Gold has performed admirably outside the US over the last year.”

Gold can be seen to be already in a Bull Market globally – except in the US, as a result of a 25% rise in the US dollar.

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Amin Rajan – CEO, CREATE Research

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“Financial Repression is a device used by governments to liquidate their debt.”

Financial Repression uses low interest rates (which reduces their financing costs) and inflation (which vaporizes its debt). The Negative Real Interest Rates which the two in combination create, has in the modern era been the way governments reduced their debt burdens.

“Financial Repression brings about an arbitrary redistribution of wealth.”

Today it is the governments only politically realistic option.

The critical problem is holders of fixed income debt get hurt where there is a redistribution of wealth:

Historically we should expect Financial Repression to last anywhere from 15 to 50 Years. We are now into only the seventh year! In Prof Rajan’s opinion “this show has a long shelf life and likely to run another 5 – 10 years”

PENSION PLANS – Entering “De-Accumulation Stage”

Aging demographics in the debt burdened developed economies is exaggerating the effects of Financial Repression because of the need for Investment Income products by retirees.

Pension Plans are now going into the “De-Accumulation Stage” where there is more money going out of the plan than is going in. Pension plans face problems of both under contribution levels and De-accumulation resulting in serious underfunding positions.

THE RETIREMENT TSUNAMI

The “Baby Boomer’ Generation is in the process of retiring. There will be 78 Million in the US and 84 Million. Europe which accounts for 8% of the global population and 25% of global output accounts for a massive 48% of global welfare budgets.

The shift from Defined Benefits (DB) to Defined Contributions (DC) is about the “Personalization of Risk” so we are told, “so people can be ’empowered’ and will be less dependent on their employers plans”. Instead Prof Rajan argues we have “Personalization of risk has a big downside. It transfers risk from those who couldn’t manage it to those who don’t understand it!”

LIQUIDITY CRISIS – Volcker Rule Has it ‘Preordained‘

When the next market correction occurs “liquidity is going to dry up in no time at all because of the Volcker Rule. The inventories of Bonds which the Investment Banks are caring are now one-eight of what they were pre-2008. Any mass exit and there will be no liquidity and prices will drop like a stone!”

OBSERVATION

Prof. Amin Rajan observes that two paradigm changes have occurred in capitalism:

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Mebane Faber – CIO Cambria Investment Management

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“An environment where interest rates are lower than inflation and you have a low or even negative interest rate environment which helps someone and hurts someone else. It hurts savers but is good for borrowers and people who have a lot of debt. The inflation eats away at that debt. It helps someone like the US government”

“Stocks and bonds like high real interest rates. They typically don’t like low or negative real interest rates”. Other asset classes like gold like negative real rates and have over the last decade, but not so much over the last couple of years.”

VALUE & MOMENTUM

Faber likes both value and momentum and believes they can work together as part of a global portfolio, particularly where they intersect. Cambria uses Shiller’s 10 Year CAPE benchmark to look at equities. It is typically around 17 and is now around 27 in the US. It presently shows a lot of great valuations around the world however momentum has been in US stocks, bonds and real estate. “Right now we see a lot of opportunity, but particularly abroad”.

THE “HOME COUNTRY” BIAS

The US is only about 50% of global market cap but most US investors have a ‘hometown bias” of having 70% of their portfolio in US securities. Faber has found that it consistently ranges from as low as 65 to as high as 85%. Meanwhile, when considered on a GDP basis the US is only about a fifth to 25% and on a valuation basis is the third most expensive. This would suggest the US has a headwind, especially after a six year run. An exposure of at least half to foreign investment seems more reasonable to Meb Faber.

DEVELOPED AND EMERGING COUNTRIES

We start with a universe of about 45 countries with reasonable liquidity. One of Cambria’s funds buys the eleven cheapest countries in the world. Faber’s analysis suggests avoiding countries that create large bubbles can be a critically important when viewed over the longer term because of the size of the inevitable corrections.”

“One of the emotional challenges and why value works is because it is hard to do.”

CLASSIC MISTAKES

1. “Not Getting Out of Your Own Way!”
   • Getting Caught Up In Performance,
   • Not Having a Plan,
   • Trying to Time Your Investments,
   • Realistic Expectations.
2. “Not Paying Attention to Fees”
3. “Too Wedded to An Investment Style”
   • Need to be Asset Class Agnostic

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Paul Craig Roberts PhD – Chairman of the Institute for Political Economy

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts is extremely meticulous in examining the central problems facing America and the developed economies today. You may not like nor agree with what he says but there is little double as a former high level Treasury official, academic professor and Wall Street Journal editor, that he knows what he is talking about.

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“It is going on on several fronts conducted by different people for their own agendas, though they all seem to be mutually supporting.

COLLUSION BETWEEN PARTICIPANTS

“I think there is a lot of collusion. For example the government colluded with the banking system in financial deregulation. For example they repealed Glass-Steagall. They expressed this absurd claim that financial markets are self regulating.”

“They turned the financial system into a gambling casino where the bets are covered by the tax payer and central bank.”

The cancer which started in the US Financial System has spread globally. The carriers of the cancer has been the International Banks.

WASHINGTON ANSWERS TO WALL STREET

“Some of the Financial Repression is collusion of government serving the financial interests because Wall Street is a huge supplier of political campaign funds which you are highly dependent on to get re-elected. So you answer to the donors. You don’t answer to the public interest. It doesn’t give you any money.”

“You answer to:

• Wall Street,
• The Military-Security Complex,
• The Agri Business like Monsanto,
• The extractive Industries (Oil, Timber, Mining)

These are the powerful interest groups that use the government to serve their interests.”

THERE ARE NO LONGER COUNTERVAILING POWERS IN WASHINGTON

With the destruction of the manufacturing jobs in America through off-shoring, it has reduced the power of the unions and destroyed the Democrats independent source of campaign funds.

“You now have two parties with the same head and reporting to the same masters. There is no longer any countervailing power”

You no longer have the Democrats supporting workers against the Republicans supporting business. Both parties represent them.

“This is the reason you can’t do anything about Financial Repression!”

NEO-CONSERVATIVE CONTROL OF FOREIGN POLICY – $6T TRILLION IN WAR DEBT

We have been in 14 years of wars and added $6T of national debt to finance these wars “without adding five cents of investment for the country having taken place.”

“We now have the Neo-Conservatives driving the conflict with Russia (which is insane), with China (which is insane). The United States doesn’t have the power to try and dominate Russia / China. Especially now that the two countries have a strategic alliance”

“You have much of the world turning away from the United States because of Washington’s

• Abuse of the Dollar as the World’s Reserve Currency,
• Abuse of the dollar based payment system,
• Imposing unilateral sanctions which are acts of war,
• Threatening people with expulsion from the clearance mechanism and people saying we won’t have any part of this,
• The BRIICS establishing their own version of the IMF,
• The Impact of the Spy Scandals and people saying they will build their own internet,

All of this is not only going to effect business it is going to effect American power. It is going to start shriveling!”

“If you have these crazed Neo-Conservatives demanding control of the world, faced with declining power, you don’t know what they will do! It is a very, very dangerous situation. I’m surprised it has taken the world so long to realize the threat the US poses to the rest of the world.”

“The US Dollar payment system is essentially a system for looting. This, Globalization and Neo-liberal economics are tools of American economic imperialism. Countries are beginning to realize this. The looting of countries by American imperialism has now reached the point where it is turning on itself – Greece for example.”

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Haydon Perryman, CGMA – FATCA Program Manager

“This a modern day “Doomsday” Book, the same asWilliam the Conqueror implemented in 1066 after conquering England. He needed to know where the wealth was so he could tax it”

“This is Not Really About Tax There are Easier Ways to Solve Tax Tracking – Its about a Common Reporting Standard. Its about the ability to track Capital”

“FATCA is a decoy for the Common Reporting Standard”

“There is an incredibly aggressive urgency of implementation – an unprecedentedly quick agreement between 57 governments”

Why?

Either to Tax it , Expropriation it or Control Its Free Movement

“Era of Banking Secrecy is Over!”

“A Complete Misunderstanding by Banks”

THE ROAD AHEAD: FATCA, IGAS AND THE CRS

The costs of FATCA Compliance will be USD 1 to 2 trillion worldwide.The bulk of these costs will be incurred in the customer outreach required to obtain the required documentation.

There will also be considerable customer backlash to FATCA and the documentation it requires. In the age of social media this matters, if this sounds like hyperbole please have a look at this URL

At a most basic level FATCA, the IGAs and the CRS are about making tax part of standard KYC/AML procedures and then reporting, for tax purposes, to those jurisdictions, in which the account holder has tax residence or citizenship.

LINK HERE to the podcast

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT GATCA / FATCA

DOWNLOAD THE 525 PAGE REPORT

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Dr. Marc Faber – Editor and Publisher of “The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report”

Dr Marc Faber feels strongly that the current money printing policies “will not end well”!

He feels that:

“Governments are not smart enough to have thought the current scheme out. The professors, academics (who have never worked a day in their lives in the private sector) and central banks think by having artificially low interest rates you can solve problems. Actually, they aggravate the problems!”

“When central banks print money nothing begins to make sense!” — “It is no longer a free market. Markets are now manipulated by governments and notably by their agents, the central bankers.”

FINANCIAL REPRESSION – An “Expropriation”

“Basically what central banks have done around the world is to push interest rates to extremely low or even negative rates. I don’t call it a repression. I call it an expropriation of the savers because before the intervention of the banks occurred post 2008, a saver got a decent rate of interest. Now they get nothing at all! So either they speculate or they lose purchasing power over time!”

The purchasing power of money is depreciating. Financial Repression or what Dr Faber calls “expropriation”, he feels is very negative for the middle and working class.

The current government and central bank policies “are leading to huge asset bubbles in stock, real estate, commodities, collectibles, art and so forth.” Inflation and Deflation work much the same way according to Marc Faber. All prices do no go up or nor decline at the same time.

“We had the collapse of the Nasdaq after March 2000. Then the Fed created the housing bubble and after it collapsed after 2007, it had a devastating impact on a very large number of households. Then in 2008 we had a commodities bubble with oil going to $147/bl and now you know where oil is trading at. Its now 1/3 of what it was at that time basically. The Money printing leads to bubbles which they deflate and hurt the majority at the expense of a few people. This is not going to help the economy in the long run – PERIOD!”

PENSION AND INSURANCE “MODELS” – In Serious Trouble

The pension plans and Insurance industry is in deep trouble. They are basically forced to speculate on something. That speculation will end very badly!

WHAT SHOULD INVESTORS DO?

Dr Faber says quite honestly,

“I am an economist, strategist and investor. The answer to the question of what should an investor do is – I DO NOT KNOW! But people expect me to know so I can tell you what I would do. In the absence of knowing precisely how the end game will be played we should invest in a diversified portfolio of different assets. Some in real estate, some in equities, some in cash & bonds, and some in precious metals.”

“For an investor to not own some precious metals at this point is almost irresponsible!”

MORE QE IS COMING

“I don’t believe we have currency wars but rather the central bankers, one after the other, prints in a ’round about'”

“Money printing has never ended well in history. It can postpone the problems, but it will make the end result even worse.”

“I believe the Fed will intervene at some point with another round of QE!”

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Professor Laurence Kotlikoff – William Warren FairField Professor of Economics at Boston University

Professor Laurence Kotlikoff believes the current banking system needs to be restructured into “Limited Purpose Banking to remove excess leverage and opacity; that the bureaucrats are having a field day with new ineffective regulations and the US government is financially bankrupt when accounted for correctly.

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

To Professor Kotlikoff the Financial System needs to be understood as a Public Good. It is a market place which needs coordination and banks & financial intermediaries are there to facilitate the operation and management of that public good. Regulators are there to keep the public good working. The question is what kind of regulation do we need that will ensure the financial system keeps working.

“Today the system is in bigger danger than 2008 because fundamentally the banks are being allowed to operate with dramatically larger leverage than would keep things safe!”

Additionally, the banks are being allowed to operate with full opacity. They don’t have to tell what they own in terms of assets or liabilities. Therefore depositors don’t know the risk they are taking which can lead to bank runs which we saw in 2008 where banks didn’t trust other banks.

“We are all set up to see this happen again because of all this leverage and opacity. The system is more fragile!”

THE FIX

In his book Jimmy Stewart is Dead, Professor Kotlikoff talked about shifting from a “Faith Based” banking system to a “Show Me!” banking system where financial intermediaries disclose all the assets they are holding. Instead of borrowing money to invest in assets we can’t see, they would sell shares through equity finance. They in effect would be equity financed Mutual Funds.

The purpose of “Limited Purpose Banking” which Professor Kotlikoff is proposing in his book is that all the financial middle men who are running the “public good” not be allowed to gamble with it. To most people their banking would be through:

• Cash Mutual Funds – For the Payment System
• Mortgage Mutual Funds – Instead of Fannie Freddie

The leveraged derivative element of the current speculative banking system would be run in a similar manner to modern parimutuel betting system polls. Dodd-Frank legislation has not made the system safer and instead sees only one regulator agency (the “Federal Financial Authority”) which oversees disclosures versus 130 entities in Dodd-Frank!

THE $210 TRILLION FISCAL GAP

Economists like Professor Kotlikoff feel the ‘Fiscal Gap’ is what we should be measuring, not one part of it which is the National Debt. The Fiscal Gap according to the CBO is presently $210T while the National Debt approximates $13T. We are focused on the $13T but really we need to be focused on is the $210T.

Over 1200 economists and 17 Nobel Laureates have endorsed a bill that mandates that the CBO & GAO do ‘Fiscal Gap’ reporting to look at the big picture.. Information on this bill can be found atwww.theinformact.org.

The current shortfall is 10.5% of GDP, each and every year. To offset this would require a 60% increase in taxes or for a 35% cut of all expenditures and benefits.

“The US is actually fiscally broke!”

The banks are holding a lot of the governments debt which is unpayable. Governments that cannot pay their bills print money. Eventually this inevitably leads to inflation. This will make the bonds worth less money which would highly likely put the banking system underwater.

SUPPORT

theinformact.org

thepurpleplans.org

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Charles Biderman – Founder & CEO, Trim Tabs Investment Research Inc.

A seasoned professional, Charles Biderman points out that when you create money, you create debt. When that debt goes to front run demand you will face the problems we are now facing in the energy industry with supply or ghost cities in China. Zero interest rates has brought forward demand which is now resulting in commodity deflation. “There is now no relationship between the economy and the stock market because of zero interest rate policies!”.

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“The markets are rigged by the central bank policy of zero interest rates. To the extent the markets are rigged we don’t have free markets. That would be Financial Repression!”

A ‘NO GROWTH’ WORLD

“We are in a no growth world. We have governments in the US, Europe,Japan and China that are anti-growth, anti-free market growth. On the other hand we have central banks that are committed to creating as much money as is necessary to keep stock markets as high as they can be even though we have a total disconnect between the economy and the markets. The only reason the markets are doing as well as they are doing (both equity and bonds) is because of zero interest rates. In essence free money from the central banks!”

“The zero interest rate policy of the global central banks is creating a global recession, not a global recovery!”

“The central banks have no clue what they are doing .. at some point the people will realize the emperor has no clothes and the US debt is not worth the paper it is written on!”

“Remember, this whole free money binge was to be a bridge over the downturn so the economy would recover. But when you have no-growth, anti-growth policies in place prohibiting real economic growth you are going to have no growth and higher prices.”

NO-GROWTH, ANTI-GROWTH POLICIES

The US needs to grow at close to 10% a year to fund the current debt and entitlement obligations. Charles feels it is obvious that his is not going to happen. “The US is bankrupt! …. like Vallejo, CA we will be forced to restructure!”

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Dr. Lacy Hunt – Executive Vice President Hoisington Investment Management Company

Lacy Hunt and his partner Van Hoisington were called “The Henry Fords of bond investing” by Forbes Magazine. You can understand why when you listen to Dr Lacy Hunt describe the current global macro environment.

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“A superficial attempt to deal with the excessive indebtedness that grips the global economy .. and in my opinion will not work!”

“Monetary Policy is not the solution here. There are Fiscal Policy solutions but they require shared sacrifice, strong leadership (something we don’t have in the US or Europe – no one has) … basically what w are trying to do is to solve an extremely over-indebted situation domestically and globally by taking on more debt and aggravating the problem “

DEFLATION

“The current economic maladies and continuing downshift of economic activity has been the over-accumulation of debt. In many cases

“Debt funded the purchase of consumable and non-productive assets, which failed to create a future stream of revenue to repay the debt.”

“The increase since 2008 has been primarily in emerging economies. Since Debt is the acceleration of current spending in lieu of future spending.”

CURRENCY MANIPULATION

INTEREST RATES

“The downward pressure on global economic growth rates will remain in place in 2015. Therefore record low inflation and interest rates will continue to be made around the world in the new year, as governments utilize policies to spur growth at the expense of other regions.”

“new lows in yields in 2015 in the intermediate- and long-term maturities of U.S. Treasury securities”

THE CURRENCY WARS OF THE 1920’S & 1930’S

Lacy muses on the effects of debt and takes us back to the ’20s and ’30s, when there were similar problems with debt in countries that had engaged in currency wars for over a decade.

Clearly the policies of yesteryear and the present are forms of “beggar-my-neighbor” policies, which theMIT Dictionary of Modern Economics explains as follows: “Economic measures taken by one country to improve its domestic economic conditions … have adverse effects on other economies. A country may increase domestic employment by increasing exports or reducing imports by … devaluing its currency or applying tariffs, quotas, or export subsidies. The benefit which it attains is at the expense of some other country which experiences lower exports or increased imports.… Such a country may then be forced to retaliate by a similar type of measure.”

The existence of over-indebtedness, and its resulting restraint on growth and inflation, has forced governments today, as in the past, to attempt to escape these poor economic conditions by spurring their exports or taking market share from other economies. As shown above, it is a fruitless exercise with harmful side effects.

It behooves us to pay attention to Lacy since he has been one of the most accurate forecasters of interest rates for the last 20 to 30 years.

2015 -Parallels to that earlier period.

• First, there is a global problem with debt and slow growth, and no country is immune.
• Second, the economic problems now, like then, are more serious and are more apparent outside the United States. However, due to negative income and price effects on our trade balance, foreign problems are transmitting into the U.S. and interacting with underlying structural problems.
• Third, over- indebtedness is rampant today as it was in the 1920s and 1930s.
• Fourth, competitive currency devaluations are taking place today as they did in the earlier period. These are a combination of monetary and/or fiscal policy actions and also, with floating exchange rates, a consequence of shifting assessments of private participants in the markets.

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Professor Steve Keen – Professor & Head Economics, History & Politics Kingston University, London

THE ART OF GETTING AN EDUCATION IN ECONOMICS

Professor Steve Keen has found that top flight universities are dominated by very narrow, doctrinaire teaching. This stylized view has resulted in critics of this view only getting jobs in low ranking university. With pride Steve Keen puts his latest university in that camp. “If you want a good education in Economics, you don’t go to a good university. The wider range of thought and diverse analytics is found at the lower ranking university. Kingston University is one of those classic university!”

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

He does not consider himself an Austrian Economist though he sees it has a number of key tenets that 85% of the economist aren’t aware.

He sees Financial Repression as more about the size of the debt burden within an economy which drives the behavior of central banks. It is about the excess weight of private debt crushing the economy. Everything else is a result of this.”

The results include the “badly thought out Quantitative Easing response to a crisis which they caused by effectively ignoring the growth in private sector debt, but aren’t even aware that this is the cause of the crisis.” “Very few banks have any real clue of what they are doing. If you doubt this, all you have to do is read the minutes of the Federal Reserve. They wouldn’t dare make them up because it makes them look like a bunch of fools who have no idea what is happening.”

Obviously this sort of view does not make Professor Keen popular with the establishment, seeking prestigious and lucrative government and teaching positions.

QE IS NOT MONEY PRINTING!

Irving Fishers explanation of where the Great Depression evolved from was the level and growth of private debt along with too low a rate of inflation. Prof Keen is of this school in which reducing this debt will only result in further falling economic growth. Former Fed Chairman and expert on the Great Depression did not believe this. Professor Keen considers Bernanke’s argument against this a “load of waffle!”. “It is completely naive to the role of banks in the economy!”

Professor lays out why he was able to warn of the coming 2008 Financial Crisis an why he does not feel the current “revival’ can last anymore than 5 years before the same sort of thing occurs.

MODERN DEBT JUBILEE

This interview is worth listening to simply for Professor Keens concept of Modern Debt Jubilee and the Syrian history of successfully doing this every 49 years. You may not agree with his view but it an interesting history lesson of how this worked prior to the advent of central banking.

Many may also agree with his views and the discussion on why the Euro was always a mistake as will be Draghi’s expected upcoming QE announcment. Few will likely also disagree with Professor Keen that moden central banking do not properly understand the role of banks, money, debt and capitalism.

Steve’s closing advise: “Don’t trust the economists!!”

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Martin Armstrong – Editor & Publisher of Armstrong Economics

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“What it really is, is a power struggle where we go through cycles where people have confidence in the people, then government. It oscillates back and forth and now we are in a phase we can call the ‘Private Sector Phase’, where people are questioning government.”

“Repression comes in when it is about whatever it takes to maintain power! Largely it is about the fact they are going broke because they have promised all sorts of pensions, and these sorts of things, but they have not funded them!”

GOVERNMENT COMPETENCE

“There is no conspiracy .. it is much worse .. it is really the ‘Keystone Cops’! … government creates the illusion it is in control, but it isn’t in control!”

“People give government and politicians way too much credit. They assume they actually know what they are doing! … what people don’t understand about governments is that we have academics advising and primarily lawyers running the government, with few with any experience or understanding of economics. We should hire traders who at least have some experience!”

“They just don’t understand. There is no design. Everything has been very ‘ad hoc. Its really about the spoils…. giving it to family and friends!”

“If you look at the debt since 1950, you will see that 70% of the national debt is accumulated interest. It didn’t go to provide schools and roads and things of this nature. The whole socialist idea is complete nonsense!”

‘NO PEG HAS EVER LASTED’

The EU, EURO and the recent removal of the Swiss Franc Euro peg are examples of the fundamental problems with government. Martin has consulted to various EU and Swiss authorities since 1998. He is miffed at what he has witnessed but it is no different than has sees everywhere else.

WE ARE IN A DEBT BUBBLE

“We are not facing a stock market crash, we are facing a bond market crash! That is far worse”

“What people don’t realize is that the US Great Depression was a sovereign debt crisis. All of Europe defaulted and went into a moratorium, South America defaulted for about the fourth time and China defaulted. You halt capital formation and that is what a bond crash does. In the great Depression everyone lost. That is what we are facing!”

“We are in a period where on a global scale, capital doesn’t know where to go and the culprit is government. We are in period where there is going to be more confidence to buy bonds such as General Motors than that of any government! There is a substantial difference between Private and Public Debt”

RISING TAXES ARE DEFLATIONARY

Martin believes there is an extremely serious tax problem, especially at the municipal level due to unfunded pensions and obligations. Because wages are not rising in the USA, this is now acting in a deflationary fashion.

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Robert Wenzel – Editor & Publisher of Economic Policy Journal.com & Target Liberty

Long time Austrian School Economist and Libertarian with a professional background in Wall Street Finance, Robert Wenzel warned of the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis in his book: The Fed Flunks: My Speech at the New York Federal Reserve Bank and was subsequently asked to Washington and the Federal Reserve to detail how he knew where “I really gave it to them!!”

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

He sees the central banks of the world and the Federal Reserve as manipulating the economy through interest rates and flows of funds which makes it very difficult for the individual to make money consistently which represses everyone but gives a major advantage to Wall Street. Much of this is done through restrictive regulations where the “devil is in the details”. Very few really understand the significance of the “details”.

Active in Silicon Valley, Robert Wenzel has seen closeup how the ‘regulatory details’ offer major advantage which give staggering advantage and financial gain to the few, but disadvantage or competitively impede many in their business enterprise. Though Robert Wenzel does not use the term he describes the workings of Crony Capitalism which Macro Analytics has chronicled in many previous videos.

“It is a rigged system where they simply write regulations when things go off the rails for them!”

What this means is it is now making it almost impossible for the average person and small business entrepreneur to survive and prosper.

“THE WORST GET TO THE TOP”

When asked how informed politicians are of what is going on, Wenzel is reminded of Nobel Laureate Economist, Fredrich von Hayeks writings in the “Road to Serfdom” that:

“The worse get to the top”

They are willing to say and do anything to get to the top. These are the ones that know what is going on. A lot of elected politicians simply don’t know what is going on and are marginalized. As in the world of finance, “bad money forces out good money”.

“INFLATION & INTEREST RATE SURPRISES AHEAD“

Wenzel believes the Fed’s stated inflation target of 2% is in actuality 3%. Until this level is achieved the Fed is not going to let up. Unfortunately because of the economic lags and distortions in the signals, Wenzel sees it getting out of control resulting in inflation levels not seen since the late 1970’s. Having presented at the Federal Reserve, Wenzel says:

“The Fed is surprisingly unaware of anything outside of money printing! … It is stunning how off the page they are and how they have no clue, as evident in the Fed minutes where they don’t even mention the money supply!”

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Dominic Frisby 

Now 45 years old and having been a comedian since his mid twenties, Dominic Frisby got interested in Economics and Finance in 2005 prior to the Financial Crisis. He subsequently became a devout Gold Bug and follower of Austrian Economics and Sound Money when he decided he needed to manage his money himself.

He concluded that:

“Money should be independent. The role of money is to be a medium of exchange, a store of wealth and a unit of account. But instead Money has become a political tool. The mixing of money and politics is very dangerous!”

Dominic feels strongly that many of our basic daily terminologies such as inflation, capitalism and socialism have become corrupted in their meaning and usage. The same is true for “money”. “All of this has distorted people’s behavior in an almost corrupt way” which he describes as only a comedian can.

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Dominic Frisby defines Financial Repression as:

“The Government manipulation of money in order to achieve a specific goal. The current goal is to bailout the financial system for the excesses it created in the lead up to the 2008 Financial Crisis and also to bailout themselves.”

“Governments have spend way more than they have earned and now have debt that is unpayable and the way they are paying it back is through manipulation, which other people call Financial Repression.”

WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS

“This will go on for my life time and my children’s life time …. until something else happens”. Frisby says “don’t shot the messenger but our leaders have gotten away with it so far and history shows leaders have always played tricks with money and debt”. “Financial Repression will always exist as long as we have leaders, just like sinning will always exist – you just have to accept it!”

SOCIAL GOVERNMENT ENTITLEMENTS

The government according to Dominic Frisby, who has spent his life within the UK’s social entitlement program, should have nothing to do with Healthcare, Education and Welfare. “All of this doesn’t need to be as expensive as it is!”

“We need less state, more market and more … ‘people’!”

CONCLUSION

“We need to question everything, including the questioners questions and their dogma”

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: David Stockman

David Stockman is the ultimate Washington insider turned iconoclast. He began his career in Washington as a young man and quickly rose through the ranks of the Republican Party to become the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. After leaving the White House, Stockman had a 20-year career on Wall Street.

CROMNIBUS

We interrupted David Stockman in Aspen where he was just finishing an article concerning the Cromnibus Bill which the Senate having passed was forwarding to the White House. You can easily sense the annoyance in David’s tone about yet another “abomination” out of Washington of a $1.1T, 1600 page Bill and no one given the time to even read it. “Pork and earmarks” were blatantly evident and tacked all over it. As a former Washington insider he is very clear on what is wrong in Washington.

It seemed very appropriate to ask David on this day to talk with us about Financial Repression!

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“Honest interest rates and financial asset prices come about from price discovery in the free market owing to the interplay of supply and demand for savings, borrowing and other forms of investment in the marketplace.The opposite of that is the regime we have today which I call the regime of financial repression.

“It is characterized by Dishonest or false prices that are not set by the market but are administered by the central bank under the doctrine of ZIRP, QE, wealth effect and all of the other artifices they have invented to justify intervention in the heart of the financial market day-in and day-out! Capitalism cannot function efficiently nor can the economy grow at a healthy sustainable, balanced rate if you do not have a free market within the capital markets or money markets. It is at the very heart of the capitalist enterprise. Today we do not have that! We have absolute Financial Repression!‘

BANKS HAVE BECOME WARDS OF THE STATE

“We have a problem with the banking system in this country todayand that is because banks as they now exist and function are not free market institutions by any shape, form, function or form of imagination! They are essentially wards of the state”

Stockman believes they would not exist in their current form nor would they take the kinds of risk they take if it were not for:

• The $9T of government deposit insurance,
• Access to the Fed’s discount window,
• Banking licenses from the state which therefore shield them from the claims they would be exposed to otherwise.

The resulting level of malinvestment and market distortions will soon come to an end when we again have realistic price discovery. He believes it is “only a matter of time before we have another more cataclysmic financial meltdown” due to the sheer weight of speculation in this central bank, bubble driven era which is now occurring.

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Egon von Greyerz – Matterhorn Asset Management AG

Interview with Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management .. on the recent Swiss Gold Initiative vote:

Lesson Learned:

“You can’t fight the Elite! When they decide they will beat you, they will beat you — eventually however they will fail!”

“The whole of the elite were against us. Now, we thought the people, the Swiss people, would be on our side because the Swiss people understand the importance of gold. They were clearly influenced by the massive campaign of the government and of the central bank. The losses for the Swiss National Bank could have been very serious, and that’s why they were quite desperate to stop this initiative.”

What are the ramifications now?

“Switzerland now has to print money. The currency is only backed by 7% gold, and now they have a free-for-all to print more money .. this, of course, will be very bullish for gold because it won’t be just Switzerland. Virtually, every country in the world will start printing money.” 

On November 30th the Swiss voted on:

1. Returning their national gold which is held abroad back to Switzerland
2. Requiring the Swiss National Bank to hold 20% of their assets in physical gold
3. Prohibiting further gold sales

So why was this referendum so important?  Because Switzerland has, for hundreds of years,  been a bastion of sound monetary policy and low inflation. But this has gradually changed in the last 100 years since the creation of the Fed in the US and especially during the past 15 years when the Swiss government quietly removed the 40% gold backing from the revised Federal Constitution which was adopted by popular vote in 1999.

No paper currency has ever survived throughout history in its original form. And the Swiss Franc from having been a strong currency is now in the process of being slowly destroyed by the recent policies of the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
Since 2008 the SNB’s balance sheet has expanded 5 times from CHF 100 Billion to CHF 500 Billion. So Switzerland has printed around 400 Billion Swiss Francs in the last 6 years in order to hold its currency down against the Euro and other currencies. CHF 400 Billion is around 2/3 of GDP.

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Andrew Sheng – Former Head of the Hong Kong SEC

ANDREW SHENG , Distinguished Fellow of the Fung Global Institute and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council on Sustainable Finance, is a former chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and is currently an adjunct professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. His latest book is From Asian to Global Financial Crisis.

Andrew Sheng has spent his career in Asia as a central banker and regulator. He summarizes the current global situation as developed economies simply “kicking the can down the road” to avoid the painful and inevitable structural changes that must lie ahead. “There are no free lunches. Avoidance will only make it more expenses and painful later on!” He quotes former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers on this subject; “do you want your teeth pulled out slowly or very quickly?” Sheng concludes “we are going to have a long tooth ache for a very long time to come!”

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Sheng describes what he refers to as the “Financial Repression Tax”:

“Governments (via regulated banks) will pay depositors very low rates, sometimes below inflation rates in order to fund the budget. The result is what is known as a Financial Repression Tax. This represses the financial system. The biggest payers of the Financial Repression Tax become the pension funds, insurance companies and long term savers.”

“Besides the government tax, this effectively also allows the rich & privileged to borrow from the poor! Rich countries are borrowing from the poorer countries”

AVOIDING DAY OF INEVITABILITY OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT

“As long as central bankers are printing we have a ‘paper economy’ not a real economy. That is where Financial Repression really harms the system”

SOURCE OF GROWING GLOBAL INEQUALITY

Sheng feels strongly that the inevitable outcome of broad based Financial Repression is and has become global inequality. “Quantitative Easing and the ‘leveraged play’ around the world is worsening inequality“.

THE MARKET IS NOW POLICY DRIVEN

Sheng also believes the free market is presently not allowed to operate. Markets are highly distorted from trillions of dollars of ‘pumping’.

“People equate finance with debt. Debt is about risk shifting and not about risk sharing! We presently have things backward. If you think of the real economy as the horse, and finance as the cart; what we have today is the cart in front of the horse!”

CONSEQUENCES OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION POLICIES

Andrew Sheng believes we are headed for another crisis. Common sense could help fix the problems but he feels common sense appears not to be so common, especially when politics in involved.

This interview touches a broad range of the fallout from Financial Repression; from how the US Fed is now locked into low interest rates, the ‘hot money’ US Dollar Carry Trade and why lenders are more concerned about balance sheet repair than investment.

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Simon Black, the SOVERIGNMAN

SIMON BLACK , is the publisher of SovereignMan.com and “Sovereign Man: Confidential” – An International Investment Intelligence Service. A graduate of West Point he served tours of duty in the middle east as an intelligence officer before beginning SovereignMan.com. He has visited over 116 countries and visits 40-50 countries annually looking for investment solutions to suit the realities of today’s increasing government regulations and restrictions.

“Financial Repression is Theft.

It is a very clever, cunning deceitful form of theft.

Governments are stealing purchasing power and essentially defaulting on their obligation to maintain a sound currency.”

“Presently in many cases you have to pay a bankrupt government for the privilege of loaning them money!

Negative real interest rates is covert theft”

Simon believes that the mentality of many governments has shifted from an ‘abundance mentality’ to a negative ‘scarcity mentality’ that has left them chasing innocent, harmless people around the world (ie witness FATCA and the avalanche of renouncing citizenship) versus trying to attract productive people, being more competitive and “making the pie bigger”. This is no longer the thinking that the US was founded on.

THE SOVEREIGN MAN APPROACH

The problem we’re facing is the fragility and danger that comes from massive centralization of economic and political power. The solution then, is to decentralize.

This strategy of diversifying aspects of your life across the globe is calledInternationalization, and that’s what Sovereign Man’s Six Pillars of Self Reliance are about.

The SIX PILLARS OF SELF RELIANCE – Financial sovereignty in the 21st century

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.

Special Guest: Nick Giambruno – Casey Research

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“Financial Repression is Financial Authoritarianism.

It is not only repressing financial aspects of people’s lives but all aspects of life and when you consider the amount of power that is wielded through Financial Repression, it is more accurate to call it Financial Authoritarianism!”

SOURCE OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Financial Repression is needed to help governments finance their debt, where the impedence comes from the level of government spending. Since almost all countries use a central banking model and fiat currencies this allows Financial Repression to exist. It gives the government the tools to implement Financial Repression which it wouldn’t otherwise have in a SOUND MONEY System.

“The lynchpin of how Financial Repression is implemented is the Central Banking Model “

“What is fundamentally wrong with this is that it allows the government to take something (that something being Purchasing Power) that is not theirs, without people knowing. You learn in kindergarden that you don’t take something that is not yours but that is exactly what they are doing!”

FATCA – FOREIGN ACCOUNTS TAX COMPLIANCE ACT

One of the most egregious examples of Financial Repression in the international arena is FATCA and the soon to be unleashed GATCA. The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) effectively begins the process of ring fencing investors options through nothing more than a stealth form of capital controls.

The real issue to banks around the world is:

1. Cost of Compliance
2. Draconian penalties if even an honest mistake is made.

Therefore international banks don’t want American accounts which is making it horrendously difficult for Americans to now live and operate abroad. FATCA has laid the foundation for GATCA in 2018 which is part of the end game for global taxation.

Like Financial Repression FATCA (and GATCA) is devious and not upfront with the American people. FATCA is a blatant example of “government for the government by the government” versus a constitution based upon “a government for the people by the people”!

Learn more about FATCA / GATCA and more as Casey Research’s “International Man” talks what Financial Repression means around the world.

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.