03/24/2021 - Yra Harris: How To Deal With Transitory Data
“We have never been in a position where the LONG END OF THE CURVE DICTATES ASSET PRICES BECAUSE THE FED HAS STRESSED THAT RATES AT ZERO UNTIL ALL THE PEOPLE SUFFERING FROM THE COVID ECONOMY THROUGH NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN HAVE BEEN RETURNED TO THE JOB MARKET.”
03/22/2021 - Niall Ferguson: A Taiwan Crisis May Mark the End of the American Empire
“Losing in Vietnam five decades ago turned out not to matter much, other than to the unfortunate inhabitants of South Vietnam. There was barely any domino effect in Asia as a whole, aside from the human catastrophe of Cambodia. Yet losing — or not even fighting for — Taiwan would be seen all over Asia as the end of American predominance in the region we now call the “Indo-Pacific.” It would confirm the long-standing hypothesis of China’s return to primacy in Asia after two centuries of eclipse and “humiliation.” It would mean a breach of the “first island chain” that Chinese strategists believe encircles them, as well as handing Beijing control of the microchip Mecca that is TSMC (remember, semiconductors, not data, are the new oil). It would surely cause a run on the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. It would be the American Suez.
The fox has had a good run. But the danger of foxy foreign policy is that you care about so many issues you risk losing focus. The hedgehog, by contrast, knows one big thing. That big thing may be that he who rules Taiwan rules the world.”
03/22/2021 - Dylan Grice: The Bubble is Just Beginning
“Stimulus today is excessive and credit conditions loose in part because central banks are relaxed towards the risk of CPI inflation. On this they might be right. But they are similarly relaxed over obvious signs of overheating in financial markets, and on this we are sure they are wrong.
The historical precedents we explore below do not bode well. We think it likely that we’re in the foothills of a policy mistake of epic proportion which will have potentially devastating consequences.”
03/18/2021 - Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Russell Napier on Yield Curve Control and Inflation
03/16/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Cómo sigue la inédita situación del dóla
“Las presiones cambiarias de este año podrían aminorarse respecto de las del año previo tanto por el lado de la oferta como la demanda de dólares.”
03/01/2021 - Yra Harris: Bonds Talking Trash To the Central Banks “An important variable to watch is the U.S. dollar for a dramatic fall in commodity prices — which is doubtful — coupled with a steep fall in emerging market currencies would conjure concerns of a global slowdown perpetrated by the massive amounts of DOLLAR-DENOMINATED DEBTS sitting on the balance sheets of emerging market corporations and other private borrowers.”
02/25/2021 - New Podcast Program Show on Market Environmentalism
Check out this new podcast program by the British Conservation Alliance, in association with the Austrian Economics Centre and Cedargold – LINK HERE for the Anchor and Spotify channel – see Youtube podcasts below:
02/25/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini: Elon Musk y el Bitcoin muestran la “nueva normalidad” “l fundador de Tesla mantiene su carrera carectizada por su desapego a “las autoridades” y al establishment, mientras que la criptomoneda obliga a los Bancos Centrales a adaptarse a las nuevas reglas.”
02/24/2021 - Yra Harris: Was It the Fool On the Hill? “The dramatic rise in RAW MATERIAL PRICES is not because of a strong global economy but because of some economic actor of major influence stockpiling massive amounts of everything needed for productive inputs.”
02/23/2021 - David Rosenberg – “We’re Getting Closer to a Breaking Point”
“The markets believe we’re going to have a post pandemic party that’s going to last to perpetuity. I’m saying, maybe it lasts for a few months and then reality will set in. And then, we have to assess how these massive deficits and debts are going to be regressed. At the peak of the last bubble in 2007, the level of global debt outstanding was $100 trillion. Here we are at the peak of the next bubble, 13 years later, and it’s over $200 trillion. It has more than doubled from bubble peak to bubble peak. This is a very unstable situation. That’s why we can’t have interest rates rise for any length of time or any meaningful degree. It’s because of the implications from a debt servicing standpoint, and the impact rising rates will have on economic growth, defaults and delinquencies and so forth ..
The Oil and gas sector was undervalued and under-owned even before the pandemic, but with collapse in global demand in 2020, it has been even more unloved ..
Asia is where the opportunities are. If you are scanning the world for growth investments with P/E multiples that at least approximately match the growth outlook, you’re better off in Asia than in the developed world. The Asian countries, by and large, have dealt with the pandemic much better than most other parts of the world. Leaving politics aside, you have to face the fact that China was practically the only country in the world whose economy did not contract in 2020. They’re poised for at least 8% growth this year, and a lot of the countries in Asia are feeding off the improvement in Chinese economic growth.”
02/22/2021 - Yra Harris: Does the Market Care About Forward Guidance? “It is Weber who adds his voice to guidance about central banks and the consequences of financial repression. The MARKET IS SENDING A MESSAGE OVER ITS CONCERNS OF THE FED’S LOWER FOR LONGER. If the NOTES AND BONDS disrupt the FED‘s battle against full employment, what will be the outcome? Logically, it’s YCC for central banks cannot allow markets to thwart their WILL.”
02/19/2021 - Felix Zulauf: On Crazy Policies and Commodities
“The most attractive assets are long-duration assets: the shares of companies that can achieve sales and earnings growth even in difficult economic and political environments, and real assets. Growth stocks are highly valued, but if bond yields and inflation stay low for the next five years, these stocks will do well.I invest in themes. I like the agriculture theme. Jim Rogers said years ago at a Barron’s Roundtable that farmers were aging, and there weren’t new farmers taking their place. We have fewer farms in the world today, and they have to produce more, for more people. There are shortages everywhere, and climate events are affecting harvests and causing prices to spike.
I am also quite bullish on oil. The U.S. dollar probably has about 30% downside over the next five years. That is bullish for commodities in general, which are traded in U.S. dollars. I could see West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude, trading at $100 a barrel in four years, because the Biden administration’s policies are against drilling for new oil.”
02/17/2021 - Danielle Lacalle – Inflation Is Back. Protect Yourself
“If you want to protect your savings, gold, and silver are important assets to own, especially the physical asset, not just financial instruments. Equities only help while monetary policy continues to create asset inflation, but that can stop abruptly when money supply growth coincides with nominal GDP growth, as the multiple expansion effect dies. Sovereign bonds are not a solution as both the price and the yield make them the most expensive asset. As such, gold, silver, cryptocurrencies, and inflation-linked bonds may be ways to protect wealth against fiat currency debasement.”
02/12/2021 - Yra Harris: Extra! Extra! Read All About It “The importance for NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND is that leaves the use of YIELD CURVE CONTROL as the next tool to be utilized by the FED so as to prevent the rise in the long-end of the Treasury curve.”
02/07/2021 - Yra Harris: At the Fed, Jobs is Priority Number One “FED FUNDS RATE WILL NOT BE BOOSTED any time soon but the question that will be at the forefront of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND will be: HOW LONG DOES THE FED ALLOW THE CURVE TO STEEPEN and enacts Yield Curve Control? For me that is key to the dollar and of course precious metals and commodity prices. Currently, U.S. EQUITIES are the most prescient as fiscal stimulus coupled with a large pool of domestic savings are riding the wave of a FED induced sea of liquidity.”
02/07/2021 - Stan Druckenmiller on the Markets, Equities, Inflation Trade
02/03/2021 - Yra Harris – What Constitutes Market Forces? “Janet, what constitutes market forces? There will be no short squeeze on dollar positions regardless of what the banner headlines say on CNBC. Redittors have never met the printing power of the world’s central banks.”
02/03/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Reddit, la rebelión del mercado contra el “establishment” “La insurrección coordinada en Wallstreetbets representa una nueva realidad para Wall Street: el mercado son los millones de personas que se mueven a su antojo. Después de GameStop los foreros han puesto sus ojos en la plata.”
02/01/2021 - Yra Harris: A Silver Lining In the Madness? “WATCH FOR PLATINUM AS A POTENTIAL UPSIDE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SHORTED BY MANY AS A HEDGE AGAINST THE OTHER PRECIOUS METALS AS THE PLATINUM/GOLD SPREAD REVEALS. PL/GOLD closed at -$766 while its 200-month moving average is a POSITIVE $498 so that gives you perspective as to where the metals market are at. Platinum, like silver,has been in deficit of late as demand has out-stripped supply according to metals dealers at KITCO.
Something else to watch. There was a BLOOMBERG article published January 12 that showed the Russian Central Bank “FOR THE FIRST TIME HOLDS MORE GOLD THAN U.S. DOLLARS IN $583 billion reserves.” The story notes that “gold made up 23% of the central bank’s stockpile” and the “share of dollar assets dropped to 22%, down from more than 40% in 2018.”
Imagine if the REDDIT crowd gets assistance in its efforts from some of the world’s central banks. Wall Street is being challenged by some dynamic forces. Be static at your risk but trade it, don’t invest it.”
01/22/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg – Negative Interest Rates, Commodities, Inflation, Gold
Emphasizes hard assets for protection from negative interest rates .. commodities, land, precious metals, equities .. also commodities have supply constraints .. points out gold is “half commodity and half money” .. “I think we are going to see an outburst of inflation” – inflation in terms of asset inflation and some consumer price inflation .. “I don’t see a central bank buying Bitcoin instead of gold” ..
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