05/20/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – INFLACIÓN Se disparó fuerte en abril y asoma la híper
” Días atrás, la OCDE advertía que el crecimiento anual del IPC en los países desarrollados se desaceleró significativamente, cayó al 1,7% en marzo desde el 2,3% en febrero, “reflejo de la evaporación de la demanda” a medida que la represión de los gobiernos detuvo casi por completo la actividad.”
05/13/2020 - Peter Boockvar: The Idiocy of NIRP
1)It’s a tax. A tax on bank capital housed at a central bank that someone has to eat, either the bank itself or they pass it on to their clients. Taxes aren’t stimulative.
2)It would blow up the $4 Trillion money market industry as money would flee and this money finances government repo’s, commercial paper, CD’s, etc…
3)It would damage bank profitability, which is the blood of small and medium sized business lending and a big help to large ones that also have access to capital markets. To remind you, the Japanese Topix bank stock index is down 92% in nominal terms since its peak in 1989. The Euro STOXX bank stock index is down by 89% from its 2007 high.
4)We’re seeing in Europe that banks have passed on some of the tax on to retail deposits. There is a story today on BN that UBS is offering some of its high net worth clients a payment holiday for a few months from paying the negative rate penalty for keeping money at the bank. They are doing this because money is leaving the bank.
5)It hurts insurance companies and pension funds that have little low risk options in meeting their investment return goals.
6)It crushes the saver and retiree.
7)It has created a massive bubble in sovereign bonds that will be a complete mess when reversed considering the large debt taken on that NIRP encourages.
8)It therefore becomes a trap for central banks because of the potential damage to bond prices when unwinding it.
9)The Swedish Riksbank saw the error of its negative rate ways and got its benchmark rate back to zero, but only zero. Even the BoJ realized the damage done as they stopped at a negative rate of .10% years ago.
05/13/2020 - Yra Harris: Myopic Gibberish
“Why push for negative interest rates? What would be the desired outcome? If it is to weaken the DOLLAR, better to follow the Swiss paradigm even if it verges on the legality of the Federal Reserve Act. The FED has supposedly begun purchasing corporate bonds so it is already stretching its legal position.”
05/12/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Las tasas negativas de la Fed y la evolución del dólar “En EE.UU. orquestaron estímulos fiscales por unos u$s3 B, más del 14% del PBI de 2019 y todavía se espera otro billón para el mes que viene. Esto acarrearía una fuerte sobreoferta -inflación- sino fuera por la gran demanda global de dólares, a la vez que las otras monedas se depreciarán quizás más: se estimaba que los países del G-20, para capear la crisis por las cuarentenas, lanzarían estímulos por u$s8 B, pero esta cantidad ya supera los 10 B. De hecho, Dollar Index Spot ahora sube hasta los 100,23.“
05/05/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – De cómo los argentinos pobres financian a Boeing “Dos meses atrás Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) fue a Washington a pedir un rescate de u$s60.000 M para sí y sus proveedores. Había gastado mucho en recompras de acciones mientras se recuperaba del desastre del 737 Max y cuando recién empiezan los efectos de la represión del mercado aerocomercial por parte de los gobiernos.”
04/27/2020 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on the Economy and the Financial Markets
Quarterly Conference Call with Dr. Albert Friedberg – some notable points:
04/27/2020 - Dr. Albert Friedberg – “We have entered the third phase of the life of fiat money” “We have now entered the third phase of the life of fiat money. There are now no restraints on its creation because it is widely believed that there is no link between money growth and inflation. Therefore, the Fed will create as much money as is needed to lift the economy from temporary deflation and depression. The money explosion under way will have an impact on consumer prices as soon as the economy begins to stabilize. My guess is that by the end of this year inflation will run at well over 3% per annum and at 3% to 6% per annum sometime in 2021. These are, of course, guesses as we are unable to know (a) how fast money will run by then, (b) what the precise relationship between money and prices is, other than it is positive, and (c) the role of expectations. If the latter turns into an inflation psychosis, inflation may run much higher than estimated. Such a scenario favours hard assets over investment/income-producing assets and, in turn, gold over most other hard assets. By tradition, gold is viewed, at least partly, as money because it possesses certain notable attributes. Unlike fiat money, it does not represent the liability of an issuer nor can it be created without cost by an issuer; for the past few thousand years, its supply has grown at no more than about 2% to 2.5% per year. It is extraordinarily liquid, portable, and marketable. Gold is quoted at the same price in every country of the world. These attributes qualify gold to retake an important role in monetary affairs.”
04/27/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Mmm… ¿en qué andará Warren Buffett? “Lejos de la imagen de “bondadoso abuelo capitalista”, Warren Buffet logró gran parte de su fortuna denostando al libre mercado; de hecho, entre sus “brillantes negocios”, financió un referendo para que el Gobierno sostenga el monopolio eléctrico de su empresa NV Energy, en Nevada, contra la liberalización que, dada la competencia, abarataría las tarifas.”
04/20/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Optimismo global y el “pagadiós” argentino “Entre otras “esperanzas”, el Gobierno apostaba a que la depresión global lograra que los acreedores se conformaran con mucho menos, pero, en todo caso, fallaron en el timing, porque vuelve el optimismo, aunque, en mi opinión, es algo apresurado. Si bien el virus parece que va camino de controlarse, no está claro que los gobiernos levantarán tan fácilmente las restricciones que destruyen a la economía. Mientras que los “Treasuries” tienen un rendimiento de hasta 1.265% anual (el de 30 años) y son considerados muy seguros, Wall Street no ha parado de subir.”
04/15/2020 - Sitka Capital on the Implications of the Virus and Central Bank Actions
“It is difficult to understate what this means for the value of the dollar over the coming decade. The period of “strong inflation” during the 1940s and 1950s, highlighted in the chart above, occurred while monetary policy was effectively taken over by the U.S. Treasury during another national emergency, and what we saw over the past month as the Fed put out fires in the bond market and coordinated with the Treasury to create special purpose vehicles and various lending programs was reminiscent of the earliest steps taken in that direction in the 1930s.”
04/14/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Wall Street, Argentina hacia la híper y … Muchos inversores apuestan a que unas cuantas empresas irán a la quiebra y, entonces, las que sobrevivan aumentarán su participación. Y para eso es muy importante la solvencia, ya que nadie sabe durante cuánto tiempo las economías globales permanecerán reprimidas por los Estados, la verdadera causa de la crisis y no el coronavirus propiamente.
04/13/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Exagerado optimismo, la plata y el bitcoin?
04/06/2020 - Satyajit Das: If the Virus Hadn’t Caused the Crash, Something Else Would Have
The pandemic has exposed the vulnerabilities of a structurally unsound financial and economic system.
04/06/2020 - Anthony Crudele and Yra Harris on the Currency, Bond and Commodity Markets
1. Why the U.S. Dollar is Yra’s Primary Focus
2. Reasons he’s Bullish Gold
3. Trading Treasuries & Yield Curves
4. Oats & Wheat
5. Crude Oil & Russia
04/06/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Bolsas -robo advisors- y bitcoin: ¿llega la recuperación? “La economía global caerá 1,9% en 2020, según Fitch Ratings, en medio de la paralización global decidida entre muchos gobiernos. La recuperación de China se ralentizará por el bajón del resto. El PBI de EE.UU. caería 3,3%, el de la zona euro 4,2% y el de Gran Bretaña 3,9%.”
04/01/2020 - The Roundtable Insight: Charles Hugh Smith on the Social, Financial and Economic Implications of the Coronavirus!
04/01/2020 - The Roundtable Insight: John Charalambakis and Yra Harris on the Virus, Economy and Investing
03/31/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – El dólar después de coronacrash “Es difícil proyectar en medio de la sorpresa del coronavirus. Pero hay que intentarlo para darle algo de racionalidad a esta película de alta ciencia ficción que han desencadenado los gobiernos.”
03/24/2020 - Yra Harris: My Fantasy News, “China Swaps U.S. Treasuries For Fort Knox” “The issue for global finance has been and will be DEBT, DEBT, DEBT, aided by the policies of lower for longer interest rates by the Bernanke, Yellen, Kuroda, and for eight horrendous years, Mario Draghi. The tide is going out and it seems that everyone has been floating naked on a tsunami of cheap funds.”
03/24/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – La peste que faltaba, el “dinero helicóptero” “A ver. En el apuro muchos hablan de “la crisis económica del coronavirus” cuando este infecta a humanos, pero no realiza transacción alguna, de modo que sólo es causante de la crisis sanitaria. La económica, que probablemente sea la peor de la historia moderna, incluso peor que la que comenzó con la caída de Wall Street el 29 de octubre de 1929, se debe exclusivamente a las medidas adoptadas por los gobiernos y al pánico creado.”
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