10/25/2021 - Marc Faber on the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Dollar
10/18/2021 - Yra Harris: Shedding Some Light
“The FED wants to proclaim how noble its efforts have been but the DEBT created in its name have not had its day of reckoning. Maybe, that is why inflation is deemed to be the best cure to the massive problem providing a SPECTRE that haunts the world. This will be a theme for the fourth quarter here at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND.”
10/16/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on Stagflation and Commodities
“The investment implications are clear to us. With the coming “taper,” long-term rates will float upwards and eventually surpass nominal GDP annual growth rates. Commodities will continue to lead the way. Critical among them are coal, oil, and natural gas; their explosive path, driven by already favourable fundamentals, is being magnified by the consequences of ill-thought-out moves to transition to greener energy. Base metals, cotton, sugar, coffee, each for their own particular reason, will soon be making multi-year highs (cotton already has). It’s only a matter of time before precious metals join the parade. Because inflation does not follow a straight line and is quite lumpy, an index best captures the bull market. That’s what we have done to date. Still, we have also allowed ourselves to be selective, at least with respect to the most liquid and important commodities.”
10/14/2021 - Felix Zulauf, Dr. Lacy Hunt and Grant Williams on Bonds, Interest Rates, the Financial Markets
10/14/2021 - Dr. Lacy Hunt on Bond Yields
Lacy Hunt Sticks With His Message: Lower Bond Yields On the Way
“Citing unproductive debt, velocity, and a negative multiplier from government debt, Lacy Hunt sticks with his prognosis of lower treasury yields.”
by Mish Shedlock
10/05/2021 - Luke Gromen and Adam Taggart on Inflation or Default?
10/05/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Cat for hare or black for green
English: “The macro team at the very prestigious Nordea Bank sees a highly volatile global future. And it points out some important factors. Lower liquidity which implies, ironically, lower inflation, that is, less boost to the Wall Street bubble, “less money to drive valuations up”. Global growth is slowing, among other things, due to disruptions in the supply chain – such as delayed quarantines and other market violations – plus the latest energy problems that “could force a more negative scenario in the short term”.
Link Here to the Article – English
“El equipo macro del muy prestigioso Nordea Bank ve un futuro global con bastante volatilidad. Y señala algunos factores importantes. Menor liquidez lo que implica, irónicamente, menor inflación, esto es, menos impulso a la burbuja de Wall Street, “menos dinero para impulsar las valoraciones al alza”. El crecimiento global se desacelera, entre otras cosas, debido a las interrupciones en la cadena de suministros -como rezago de las cuarentenas y demás violaciones al mercado- más los últimos problemas con la energía que “podrían forzar un escenario más negativo a corto plazo”.”
Link Here to the Article – Spanish
09/21/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Entre la “invalorable” ayuda del estatista FMI y Evergrande
“De repetirse los resultados de las Paso en noviembre, entre otras cosas, el oficialismo perdería seis senadores quedándose sin quorum propio y, a eso, lo consideran muy peligroso. Si no recuerdo mal, el peronismo siempre ha tenido mayoría en el Senado desde la vuelta de la democracia en 1983. Además, en mi opinión, hace mucho ruido la fuerza con que surgió inesperadamente Milei, con un discurso muy contrario a las ideas gobernantes y a los políticos. La anti política, casi anti-Estado que gana fuerza en todo el mundo.”
09/06/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Raw materials with an uncertain future
“For decades the industrial sector in Argentina has had very little weight because the State not only takes away work capacity with so many regulations -limitations and prohibitions-, but also takes away large resources through taxation and takes almost all the financial resources.”
09/03/2021 - Yra Harris: Will It Be An Inflated Jobs Report?
“Give the markets time to digest the contextual basis of jobs and see if Powell’s concerns are realized in the August data and that employment remains well below the FED‘s mandate of full-employment. If the DATA is weak expect the DOLLAR to weaken, GOLD TO RALLY, BONDS TO ATTAIN some strength as it will push back the central bank’s desire to CURB ITS ASSET PURCHASES. It’s also LABOR DAY WEEKEND so be very patient as trading will not be as liquid as desks will be vacant due to the holiday. PATIENCE FOR THE NARRATIVE TO UNFOLD.”
08/24/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – The dollar strengthens
” Uncertainties are growing again in financial markets because, predictably, politicians are not willing to disarm the power they won – state controls and restrictions – with the excuse of the “pandemic” and, therefore, the global economic recovery slows.”
08/16/2021 - Yra Harris Latest Thoughts
“Hoping you have a great week but wish to remind traders that after last Sunday night’s meltdown in the GOLD and SILVER, the GOLD CLOSED HIGHER ON THE WEEK, even as the FED‘s language grew more hawkish in terms of beginning QE tapering. The U.S. DOLLAR also failed to rally after the initial GOLD bashing, the dollar index closing lower on week. The hawkish rhetoric failed to provide lift to traditional vehicles of positive dollar asset classes.
This is just something to watch even as global sovereign BOND markets remained in nominal real territory: German Bunds -0.46%; French Oats -0.13%; Netherlands -0.34%; Greek 0.55%; and Italy 0.54%.
Of course the BOJ, RNBZ, RBA and BOE all have interest rates on overnight money near zero. This is the predicament for the FED in being the the first to remove liquidity. Interest rates are low everywhere and the BOJ and ECB have openly stated their reticence to begin pulling back asset purchases. This is the global financial system with which we go back to beach. Will the SRF allow the FED to reduce QE without leading to a DOLLAR RALLY? Only time will tell.”
08/09/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Wall Street camino de nuevos máximos?
” Cuenta Ezequiel Burgo que la inversión extranjera directa en Argentina registra los niveles más bajos desde la crisis de 2001. Según el BCRA, hasta junio de 2021 ingresaron US$ 748 M al país durante los últimos doce meses en concepto de ‘inversión directa de no residentes’. Una cifra francamente irrisoria y que, obviamente, se debe a casos muy puntuales y de mantenimiento de emprendimientos ya existentes mostrando que en el fondo hay desinversión en Argentina.”
08/09/2021 - Yra Harris: Bye Bye, Jerome Powell
“The noose tightens for a strong DOLLAR will create havoc on so many of the world’s most vulnerable economies. When does not fault of their own splash across the OCEANS? Those espousing an end to the global reflation trade due to FED policy pivoting be very cautious. All those in favor of a strong dollar raise your hands, otherwise keep the MUSIC PLAYING AND THE WALL STREET CROWD KEEP DANCING. Hey Joe, you may wish to change partners.”
08/06/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on Inflation and Impacts to the Economy, Equities and Commodities
45 min Podcast – Link Here
08/04/2021 - FRA The Roundtable Insight Podcast Live on TV Radio Miami (in Spanish)
08/03/2021 - Yra Harris: The Fed As G-30 Proxy?
“The problem remains that the FED bent to the consultations of this illustrious non-elected group with potential for great financial impact. It further confirmed my hypothesis that the FED cannot lead the move to end QE but must be a laggard or suffer the consequences of an overly strong DOLLAR.”
07/27/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on Inflation
“If inflation keeps accelerating beyond their 2.5% per annum expectation, which in our view is guaranteed, increases of 1/4% in Fed funds will be implemented on a quarterly basis. Then monthly. There is a long way to go, and a long time necessary, to reach a funds rate of just 2.5%, the last peak (2019). And, dear reader, that won’t cut it when inflation is running 500 to 800 basis points higher. It’s useless for us to speculate any further. It will be a long time, measured in years, before the Fed regains control of prices. During this long period of time, inflation will rage and consumer purchasing power will shrink as wages struggle to keep up with prices. Economic activity will be severely affected by this loss of purchasing power, and slowdowns and recessions will follow. Corporate margins will shrink. Price controls, always useless and counterproductive, will almost certainly reappear on the scene. The evils of social inequality will be compounded, and social unrest will follow… There are very few places to which we will be able to escape and find safety in the coming financial and economic disaster. But recognizing the problem is the first step and we believe that we have recognized it.”
07/27/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – ¿El que apuesta al blue pierde?
” Como venimos anticipando, por ejemplo, en la nota “La economía argentina en situación muy complicada”, la inflación global está tomando un vuelo muy importante (y, por cierto, hay un gran negocio dentro de esto, ya que implica billones de dólares emitidos y regalados a los amigos del poder, que explica buena parte de la “pandemia”).”
07/26/2021 - Yra Harris: Trade Complications (The Power of the Nation-State)
“IF THE FED IS THE FIRST MOVER OF THE MAJOR TO RAISE RATES AND CUT QE THEN THE DOLLAR WILL RISE BECAUSE OF THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GLOBAL DOLLAR-DENOMINATED DEBT. A rise in the DOLLAR would lead to declining profits for U.S. multinational corporations, as well as emerging markets having to raise capital thus initiating a global liquidation of various assets. This would naturally mean a correction in equity markets. I guess we’ll see this week as we get another FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.”