Special Guest: Daniel Amerman – Financial Consultant, CFA, Duluth MN USA

Is there a “Back Door” method for the government to pay down the federal debt using private savings? Daniel Amerman says emphatically, YES!

It is called FINANCIAL REPRESSION, though as a former banker Amerman likes to think of it in more accounting terms like liabilities and assets.

In practice there are four primary methods which a nation can use to pay down excessive debts incurred to support spendthrift habits and political obligations.

1. AUSTERITY: Decades of Austerity,
2. DEFAULT: Defaulting on government debts,
3. DEBASEMENT: Inflating away the value of the debt though slashing the value of the currency,
4. POLICY: Process of Financial Repression

Financial Repression is a subtle method of taking vast sums of private wealth with no political consequences. It has strong advantages for the government:

1. It works in practice and has been used successfully before ( 1945 – 1970),
2. Almost No Political Damage,

The government methodically uses regulations over a period of many years to force a negative rate of return onto investors (in inflation adjusted terms) so that the real wealth of savers shrinks by an average of 3-4% per year.

A SHEEP SHEERING STRUCTURE

The characteristics of postwar era “Sheep Sheering” are:

1. Inflation,
2. Government control of Interest Rates to guarantee Negative Real Rates of Return,
3. The Funding of government debt by financial institutions,
4. Capital controls,
5. Discouragement of Precious Metals investment.

If you real want to understand FINANCIAL REPRESSION, this is where you start.

Special Guest: Axel Merk

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“In a nutshell, it is ways governments are trying to deprive you of purchasing power because the government has too much debt and must debase the value of the debt.”

“Through the backdoor the government is trying to take some of your net worth …. It is a wealth TRANSFER from savers to those who have piled up a excess debt” “It is most commonly done through negative real interest rates!“

CENTRAL BANK INFLATION GOALS

“You often don’t have enough inflation in the world when you have too much debt”.

This is why the US, the EU and Japan are trying frantically get inflation up, despite it being bad for the average citizen or saver.

Axel Merk believes that if in 10 years we were to get back to historic bond level,s then there would be an addition $1 trillion in government interest rates. The fed is simply not going to allow that and therefore interest rates are realistically not going up.

NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES

Even a Fed Funds Rate of 1.75 next year would likely still mean we would have negative real interest rates.

SOCIAL UNREST & POLITICAL INSTABILITY

“Policy makes never blame themselves for the problems they have. They always blame a minority, the wealthy or foreigners”

When you have too much debt political stability declines. In parts of the world where food and energy are bigger part of their disposable income you can expect social unrest as these inflation policies take on greater roles.

It is a fact that austerity policies fail at the polls as we have seen in Europe. In the US we are electing increasingly more populist politicians which means entitlement reforms have a slim chance of happening. Therefore “Kicking-the-Can-Down-the-Road” and reliance on the central bank to keep rates low.

We have former super powers on the decline and emerging super powers on the rise. We can only hope that this transition will be peaceful. A central banker told Axel prior to his starting his funds that “We can only hope the adjustment process will be slow and gradual”

JAPAN IS AHEAD OF US IN THIS EVOLUTION

“Liquidity has dried up in the JGB market which means that at some point it is easier to have some sort of crisis”

REGULATION

Regulations in general are about barriers to entry. Therefore it limits risk taking which inevitably leads to less economic growth. By simply keeping interest rates low it doesn’t put sufficient pressures on the system for structural reforms. As low interest rate policies continue to fail the political bias will be to “double down” which means the problems get even worse. Eventually the structural changes required becomes too great to be politically possible without hiding behind a major crisis.

SWISS NATIONAL GOLD REFERENDUM

The Swiss are fiercely independent and don’t like the dependencies which the Euro peg to the Swiss Franc are creating. They don’t like the debt an unelected central bank is piling onto the nation. What is important is that the referendum is trying to force more discipline into monetary policy.

WHAT INVESTORS MUST REALIZE

Cash is no longer safe anymore! The purchasing power of cash is at risk. Once investors realize this the investment world is open! They then need to invest based on the risk spectrum.

• EQUITIES – Prices are elevated because of the actions of central banks ,
• BONDS – “I wouldn’t touch with a ten foot pole in the current environment.
• DIVERSIFICATION suggests adding Currencies and Precious Metals.
• BE ALERT – Have your own opinion after building your own framework

Special Guest: Doug Casey – Casey Research

“MODERN CURRENCIES ARE FLOATING ABSTRACTIONS”

Developed economies’ currencies “are turning into toilet paper”.

“JAPAN IS A GIANT ACCIDENT WAITING TO HAPPEN!”

“If you are looking for a one way street, perhaps the best speculation in the world today would to be short Japanese government bonds denominated in Yen”. The demographics in Japan are the worst in the world.

“THE EU WILL CEASE TO EXIST“

Its really a horrible conglomeration of countries which should be simply a free trade area with the government in Brussels making it impossible. It is totally dysfunctional and will breakup.

DOUG’S RECOMMENDATIONS

1. “Hold onto your hat” – Things are going to get real interesting starting in 2015,
2. Doug sees turmoil coming which we haven’t seen since the start of the Industrial Revolution or the French Revolution,
3. Hold gold and silver. Some should be in coins in your possession.

Best-selling author, world-renowned speculator, and libertarian philosopher Doug Doug Casey speaks out on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Doug sees the world in the “eye of a gigantic financial hurricane”. It entered the hurricane in 2007-2008 and will likely see the next stage in 2015. Here are just some of Doug’s views and statements from this fascinating and exclusive interview with Gordon T Long.

REALISTICALLY SEES WAR AHEAD

“The US is being provocative with its military bases in 125 countries around the world and is provoking the Russians in the Ukraine.” The US is now a country in a continuous state of war. “The US military is out of control.”

“AMERICA DOESN’T EXIST ANYMORE!”

“America has turned into a police state”. It is the most dangerous entity in the world today and has become hated globally because of its militarism.

“THE REAL RISK TO INVESTORS IS ‘POLITICAL'”

US Investors must urgently diversify their assets abroad while it is still possible. More restrictive regulatory policies lie ahead.

US STANDARD OF LIVING & RESPECT IN THE WORLD HAS FALLEN

Today the US is more taxed and regulated than ever before, which limits its abilities to solve its problems.

Special Guest: Mike Pento – Pento Portfolio Strategies LLC

Michael Pento speaks out strongly by saying: “We cannot allow the whims of a small group of unelected people to depreciate the value of currencies without any accountability whatsoever. Who gave Mr Bernanke and Ms Yellen the authority to do all these QEs? Who voted them into power? Why do we believe deflation is a bane on the American populous? Why do we want real incomes to fall and prices to go up? We cannot allow these people to to destroy the American middle class and American consumer!”

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“Any attempt by government to make sure debt service payments remain serviceable.”

That is the key. “Whether it is to force people into the bond market, whether it is to keep interest rates artificially low – whatever they need to do to make sure they don’t have to use the tax base to pay their debt and deficits. They utilize artificial methods to make sure they can make debt service payments.”

JAPAN IS MICHAEL PENTO’S FAVORITE EXAMPLE

“In Japan they have been able to take the entire JGB market and monopolize the whole entire thing! There is nothing that occurs there unless the government is a buyer. There are days on end where there is no trading because their 10 year note is .005%.”

“Japan is an insolvent nation that has taken its interest rates down to levels where there is no private market for their debt – it is a ticking time bomb ….. The danger here is the Yen can unravel here and become intractable.”

“If interest rates go up just 1% the nation is completely insolvent. The Yen could unravel very quickly and cause the economy of Japan to collapse, which would be massively disruptive to all economies and markets across the globe.”

FREE MARKET SYSTEM HAS BEEN COMPLETELY VANQUISHED

“No one knows what the prices are of anything any longer! Capitalism has been annulled, cancelled and abrogated by government and central banks (which are one and same thing)”.

WHERE WE ARE HEADED

1. A complete breakdown in central bank credibility lies ahead,
2. A complete collapse of the financial system will occur when interest raters normalize. The Fed won’t initiate this normalization but rather the free market will,
3. A resulting global economic collapse will wipe out tax bases and therefore debts and deficits will skyrocket
4. Because of this threat, more QE, more financial repression and further market intrusions lie ahead.

Special Guest: Tim Price – PFP Group

Tim recalls the words we last heard in the dark days of 2008:

“When you’re a distressed seller of an illiquid asset in a market panic, it’s not even like being in a crowded theater that’s on fire. It’s like being in a crowded theater that’s on fire and the only way you can get out is by persuading somebody outside to swap places with you .”

This is precisely what occurs when the regulatory pressures and un-natural forces of FINANCIAL REPRESSION finally ends

“Financial Repression is government stealing from savers and the future!”

“The single biggest problem of our times economically, is that for the last 40 years there has been an unsustainable buildup of credit expansion throughout the developed world … and we have reached the end of the road new. Every policy by governments and their agents (the central banks) is too a) Kick the Can Down the Road and B) to steal from savers to keep this bandwagon rolling!”

THREE ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTEMPT A RESOLUTION:

Tim believes Japan is presently the ‘dress rehearsal’ and the rest of the world will be the main event.

Special Guest: John Butler – Amphora

“The whole point of financial repression is to make it difficult or impossible for an investor to protect themselves”

John feels Financial Repression “is now extremely broad based (globally) and in fact you have to look very closely to find countries not actively pursuing some mix of Financial Repression policies.”

A NEGATIVE SUM GAME

Butler has argued in his Amphora Report that competitive currency debasement is “is not a zero sum game but rather a negative sum game because policy makers don’t realize that by trying to devalue against each other, unseen they are undermining the very credibility of unbacked fiat currencies generally.”

Increasing the BRICS are “becoming increasingly wary of where all this is going and as a consequence are diversifying not only their fiat currency reserves but are diversifying into gold, oil fields and real assets generally.”

HOW INVESTORS PROTECT THEMSELVES

“The only free lunch in economics is DIVERSIFICATION. The problem is that in a world of Financial Repression, the way you diversify yourself is very different than a world where financial represion is not an issue.”

“There is no way out but Currency Debasement”

Special Guest: Chris Martenson PhD – PeakProsperity

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“When governments get into too much debt there are only so many ways to get themelves out from under the debt.” There is:

1. Austerity,
2. Default on the Debt or
3. Financial Repression

In reality, the third is the only politically viable solution. Financial Repression ” the cornerstone involves taking a little from everybody and giving it to a couple of favored parties”. To do this involves three basic elements:

THE COMING CRISIS

True wealth NEVER gets destoyed, it only gets transferred!”

Chris points out that wealth is never destroyed. but rather it is the claims on wealth which are destroyed during a crisis. “A profound currency accident is coming” according to Chris where he “would not be surprised to see the Yen be completel obliterated just like the the Zimbabwe dollar.” His strong recommendations are:

Wealth can no longer be stored in paper currency or “paper” claims in a Fiat Currency System.

Special Guest: Grant Williams

Grant suggests that the dictionary defines repression as essentially about trying to repress true feelings. Financial Repression is the government’s attempt to steer behavior away from true investments and into those that assist the government to pay down its debts.

“The result is essentially outright theft by borrowers from savers. The pool of savings on earth is the last really untapped pool of capital that government has to go after”.

According to Grant the explosion in credit through removal from the Gold Standard, financial engineering and keeping interest rates low has left a differential between Credit Growth and GDP that has forced governments with no choice but to adopt Financial Repression policies. By debasing their currency and through inflation government create the most insidious type of wealth transfer that most people just don’t understand.

Special Guest: Nick Barisheff – President & CEP, Bullion Management Group Inc.

Nick Barisheff suggests that to protect yourself from government Financial Repression policies, a diversified portfolio with a strategic allocation of 20% in precious metals is presently merited. The Precious Metals allocation should be diversified in physical holdings between gold, silver and platinum.

Nick argues that China is closer to 5000 tons of gold than the 1000-1700 currently reported by official sources. When this all becomes properly understood it will send shock waves through the system!

Barisheff believes China is acquiring physical Gold in its Sovereign Wealth Fund which doesn’t have to report it to anyone. The last time they did the Chinese Central Bank Gold Reserves went from 800 to 1600 tonnes.  They haven’t reported in five years. During this 5 years Nick argues the gold is coming from Leased Gold. There has been approximately 1500 tonnes per year in net leasing over the last 10 years.

Special Guest: Mike (Mish) Shedlock – MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish Shedlock talks Financial Repression with Gordon T Long.

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“Financial Repression is a set of fiscal & monetary policies for the express benefit of the ruling class – the politicians, the banks, and the already wealthy at the expense of everyone else”

THE GOAL

“It is about coercing the government into doing things that are in the express interest of the ruling class. The already wealthy are the ones who gain the most”

MISH ON “WAR”

“War is another example of Financial Repression. Who benefits?  The war mongers – the banks, politicians and wealthy. You can’t even get elected if you don’t support war because the whole Military-Industrial Complex is behind it and you will be labeled ‘weak on defense’”

THE COMING CURRENCY CRISIS

Mish believes a currency crisis is coming which is most likely to start outside the US in likely Europe or Japan.

“This environment fosters banks and the wealthy to speculate. When it ends badly and we have to bail them out the average guy on the street is going to pay for it – again”

FINANCIAL BUBBLES

“Financial Bubbles are a direct result of all these policies for the benefits of the banks and wealthy …. That is what the Fed does. That is what central banks do. They blow bubbles over time for the benefits of banks and wealthy”

MISH ON KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS

“No one has gone back and proven how idiotic it all is. This idea that you can pay to dig a ditch and then have someone else fill it back up and this will add economic benefit is lunacy! Yet the average Keynesian believes that. A sixth grader would find in inherently ridiculous!”

MISH’S VIEW ON HOW INVESTORS CAN PROTECT THEMSELVES

“Don’t participate in bubbles!! Get out of the financial markets. Buy some Gold and wait.”

Special Guest: Douglas E. French – Author, Past President of the Ludwig von Mises Institute and noted Casey Research Contributor

“The biggest bubble we have is US Treasuries. The believe you can’t get hurt is a quality you always see in a bubble. The idea that lending an entity, that is $17T and going to $18T and beyond in debt, and will never be able to pay that back and the idea that you will get 2.5% for 10 years and it is ‘return free risk’ is certainly bubble territory!“

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“You have PhD’s at the Fed trying to create economic growth with inflation and low rates. The repression is that people like you and I won’t ever be able to retire because we won’t be able to get any return on our money so we can prop up the government and keep it in business.”

This is the overall Macro Strategy of the government but central planning has never worked! ….. They are essentially trying to print their way out of a jam! ……. Because of Financial Repression almost ¾ Trillion dollars has gone to the government that should be in private hands!!!”

FRENCH WARNS INVESTORS

A former banker, Corporate Vice Chairman of a FTSE 100 corporation and founder of Matterhorn Asset Management AG, Egon von Greyez “strongly believes there will be massive wealth destruction in the next few years”.

Von Greyerz personally defines Financial Repression in practical terms as the “manipulation and interference by government in the running of the economy and the lives of normal people”. What this will inevitably lead to he feels will be the “total control of the people and a police state – that is the way we are going in some countries!”

He has been worried about what is presently unfolding since the 1980’s and is very troubled about what he has witnessed and what he clearly saw was coming. “All this was inevitable. It is ridiculous for the central bankers to say they didn’t see this coming. Anyone with just a little bit of intelligence could have seen this coming (of course you can’t be a politician who never see things coming and central bankers are politicians)”.

The founder of the well recognized Canadian web site Stockhouse Media Corporation and CEO until 2002, Jeff Berwick says “around 2003 I woke up and started studying and learning (and I am still doing that to this day) and the more you learn the deeper this ‘rabbit hole’ gets! We are living under a financial system that is completely not real! People are going to find this out pretty soon!”

Berwick defines Capitalism as “the free voluntary transactions of human beings where every transaction improves the lives of eveyone. They (government) have been portraying capitalism as evil.”

Because of this the future suggests to Berwick that ” whoever loses the least over the next decade, will win the most! It is going to be a game of not losing everything.”

“We are going to go through the ‘Great Transition’ in the not to distant future which the internet will facilitate and which could potentially be the saviour of humanity. The real issue over the next few years is trying to get enough people to understand what is wrong about this world and what could be right about it. Then let the people decide”

His recommendation for Americans who he believes ‘are the most asleep people in the world (from his perspective living outside America), is to “put your assets into hard assets that Janet Yellen can’t counterfeit into obscurity.”

FINANCIAL REPRESSION in Jeff Berwicks words:

“Financial Repression all started in 1913 with the foundation of the third central bank of the US, the Federal Reserve. Income tax came into existance with the same act which people should find interesting! …. The Repression as you call it (Oppresssion as I call it) of the Central Banking, Communist System has been hidden from people because of a tremendous amount of productivity…. the government and bankers tell people things are good because of them – in actuality things are worse because of them – a lot worse. Hardly anyone sees this…. they have taken away from the true human potential.”

The answer is that “we need an awakening where people begin to realize what is going on and move beyond this really horrible system of statist, communists, central bankers, fiat currencies and go to a solid money (like precious metals and bitcoin) and allow the markets to make decisions”.

“People need to wake up, turn off their TV (it is literally ‘programming’) and start listening to real information. People need to break free from these chains. If they don’t, unfortunately they will get hurt in this coming “Great Transition”. As in life someone always has to pay for mistakes and some people are ging to pay more than others. We are unfortunately all going to have to pay. It is going to be a dramatic period and incredibly stressfull…. America is going to be ground zero for this transition “

“There is going to be a great evolution in everything we know today in the next decade. It is going to be biblical in proportion. The sooner you start to look into these things (whether gold, silver, real estatre, bitcoin) the better”

LINK HERE for MP3 Podcast