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11/22/2021 - Yra Harris – Odious, Indeed

“The main concern for the world is not TRADE but the massive amount of DOLLAR-DENOMINATED DEBT. In the last decade, global debt has grown to $330 trillion from $200 trillion, according to IMF, BIS and IIF. The dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency means a large percentage of the DEBT is denominated in U.S. currency, especially because the Fed’s aggressive QE policy has sustained very low interest rates to enable DOLLAR funding for many emerging market businesses.

Many emerging market central banks have begun raising rates to keep their currencies attractive so as not to create stress for their private sector dollar borrowers. But how high can rates go in Brazil, Mexico, Russia and others before their economies begin to slow?

The Europeans need to be more concerned about its policy of LOWER FOR LONGER sending the DOLLAR to levels that cause global systemic stress in the DEBT markets. Lagarde is pursuing a one-dimensional goal in a multi-faceted world. While some may not think this is ODIOUS it will prove to be reprehensible. Market signaling mechanisms are broken in the face of massive QE purchases so there are no market forces to upset the ECB agenda, or the BOJ’s. The FED is going it alone … maybe. Perhaps it’s time for a G-7 meeting?”

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11/16/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Kevin Duffy and Yra Harris on Key Investment Themes

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11/16/2021 - Live Podcast on Nov 23 – Jim Bianco and Yra Harris

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11/16/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – La nueva moda global, la estanflación

” ‘Estanflación’, estancamiento con “inflación” -suba del IPC, en rigor-, es un término acuñado por un político británico, Iain Macleod, en 1965, cuando muchos economistas dudaban de que una economía con poco o ningún crecimiento y tasas de “inflación” más altas de lo normal fuera posible, según cuenta Laura Sánchez de Investing.com. La peor estanflación que se recuerda en EE.UU. ocurrió durante la década de 1970.”

Link to the Article Here

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11/15/2021 - Yra Harris: A Possible Solution to the Central Bank Dilemma

THE GOLD/CURRENCY SPREADS DISCUSSED IN THIS BLOG HAVE BEEN A MARKET RESPONSE TO THE LOOMING CREDIBILITY GAP OF ALL CENTRAL BANKS IN A FIAT CURRENCY WORLD. Listening to the recent speeches from ECB and FED members there still seems to be a race to be the greatest liquidity provider in a QE-dominated world. The move to buy the precious metals in the face of rising short-term interest rates is a response to concerns that the CENTRAL BANKS HAVE NO ANSWERS TO THE TRAP OF FORWARD GUIDANCE AND ITS MANTRA OF LOWER FOR LONGER.”

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11/09/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Judd Hirschberg on Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets

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11/08/2021 - Yra Harris: What Turned the Markets On Friday?

“If my conjecture is correct get prepared for increased volatility, especially in the U.S. DOLLAR and precious metals, but be patient as this story will unfold in the wake of Congress finally passing an infrastructure bill.”

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11/04/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini on Elon Musk and The Natural Market

“As I have explained in previous notes, succinctly, today there are three economic theories. Keysianism, which we know for being a great setter of bubbles, print and print money bills believing that this is how they move the economy and what they achieve is an artificial balloon that when explodes destroys more than what eventually achieved. Then, the neoclassical economic theory -the preferred one of market operators who distrust exaggerated issuance- whose characteristic consists in believing in the equilibrium -of the supply and demand curve- of the market, which implies that perfect knowledge has been reached and, therefore, that it is static and rigid: the company is only a productive function, a means to transform inputs into products.

nd, finally, the theory of the natural market (“free” from artificial State interference), initiated by the Spanish scholastics of the School of Salamanca of the 15th and 16th centuries, and taken up, to some extent, by the Austrian School of Economy that knows that there is no equilibrium -because there is no perfect, static knowledge- but a specific environment in permanent movement, which tends towards equilibrium at the rate at which market players find new knowledge that is always perfectible and pose new horizons that move the point of balance.”

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11/01/2021 - Yra Harris: The Odious Designs of ECB Policy

“The coordination of central bank policies for the last decade is what is truly ODIOUS but its continuation provides trading and investment opportunities. Our job is to find those and put the lowest risk strategies to work. Now onto the FOMC meeting this week.”

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10/29/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on Inflation and Commodities – Quarterly Podcast

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10/26/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Peter Boockvar and Yra Harris on Inflation, Currencies, Interest Rates and Commodities

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10/25/2021 - Marc Faber on the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Dollar

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10/19/2021 - The Roundtable Insight: Democracy, Economics and Entrepreneurship in the Future of Spain and Latin America

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10/18/2021 - Yra Harris: Shedding Some Light

“The FED wants to proclaim how noble its efforts have been but the DEBT created in its name have not had its day of reckoning. Maybe, that is why inflation is deemed to be the best cure to the massive problem providing a SPECTRE that haunts the world. This will be a theme for the fourth quarter here at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND.”

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10/16/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on Stagflation and Commodities

“The investment implications are clear to us. With the coming “taper,” long-term rates will float upwards and eventually surpass nominal GDP annual growth rates. Commodities will continue to lead the way. Critical among them are coal, oil, and natural gas; their explosive path, driven by already favourable fundamentals, is being magnified by the consequences of ill-thought-out moves to transition to greener energy. Base metals, cotton, sugar, coffee, each for their own particular reason, will soon be making multi-year highs (cotton already has). It’s only a matter of time before precious metals join the parade. Because inflation does not follow a straight line and is quite lumpy, an index best captures the bull market. That’s what we have done to date. Still, we have also allowed ourselves to be selective, at least with respect to the most liquid and important commodities.”

Link Here to the Latest Quarterly Report

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10/14/2021 - Felix Zulauf, Dr. Lacy Hunt and Grant Williams on Bonds, Interest Rates, the Financial Markets

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10/14/2021 - Dr. Lacy Hunt on Bond Yields

Lacy Hunt Sticks With His Message: Lower Bond Yields On the Way

“Citing unproductive debt, velocity, and a negative multiplier from government debt, Lacy Hunt sticks with his prognosis of lower treasury yields.”

by Mish Shedlock

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10/13/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Prof. Barry Eichengreen and Yra Harris on Debt, the Dollar and Inflation

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10/11/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – The Future of Argentina, Spain, Latin America and Europe (in Spanish)

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10/08/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Charles Hugh Smith on the Failure of the Federal Reserve and Rising Secular Inflation

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