03/30/2024 - Louis-Vincent Gave on “What the Fed Did Next”
“Looking at copper, gold, bitcoin, the US dollar and others, it increasingly looks as if the market has already decided. The fear of losing the dinner party invites is stronger than the fear of getting a bad rap in the history books. In any case, over the last few years the new motto of public life in Western democracies seems to have become “Après moi, le déluge.” Why expect a change now? The market is likely right to expect an easy Fed—and to position itself for reflation.”
03/28/2024 - CedarOwl – How We are Investing in Green and Clean Nuclear Fusion Energy
Nuclear Fusion as a solution towards the sustainable, green vision that the world has been striving towards has been severely downplayed and relatively unknown. Yet, key players in the energy sector are advancing nuclear fusion technologies, preparing the world for its commercialization as an energy source, presenting potentially enormous investment opportunities. Link to Bloomberg’s article on Nuclear fusion market could achieve a $40 trillion valuation. Does this make your hair stand on end? It should.
CedarOwl’s goal is to shine a light on innovative and profitable answers to the question: How can our global society transition into a silver-lined, sustainable future through technological advancement, idea sharing and investment?
In today’s posting, we explore the current opportunity presented by the advancements in nuclear fusion as an energy source.
Industry experts including Doomberg and Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates have highlighted the challenges of the traditional so-called “green” renewable energies of wind and solar in being able to provide green and clean energy:
And then there is also nuclear energy. There are two forms – nuclear fission and nuclear fusion.
Nuclear fission energy is available today, is scalable, has relatively high EROI and can be built economically. A reasonable energy transition strategy – towards lowering carbon emissions and migrating away from fossil fuels – is using a mix of all of the above and other developing energy sources, and has been identified by various industry experts including Doomberg – we fully promote this approach.
What about nuclear fusion? What is nuclear fusion energy, how is it different from nuclear fission energy, and why would it make sense to pursue its commercial development? Can it make financial and economic sense?
Doomberg is a leading write on the substack platform, providing a special focus on energy. Doomberg is very bullish on nuclear energy in general – here is a link to the nuclear related articles if you would like to deepen your dive on the subject.
Scientific American Journal differentiates nuclear fusion energy from nuclear fission energy:
“Nuclear fusion—the merging of light atomic nuclei—has the potential to produce energy with near-zero carbon emissions, without creating the dangerous radioactive waste associated with today’s nuclear fission reactors, which split the very heavy nuclei of radioactive elements.”
So far this year, European scientists have made key breakthroughs in record-breaking amounts of energy made with fusion energy, highlighting the advancement of the technology.
If nuclear energy is such a great solution, then why have seemingly inferior technologies taken the lead in this race?
Fusion is not Fission. They’re both forms of nuclear energy but one is vastly different than the other. Fission energy power plants of old are the source of attitudes stemming from images of meltdowns, toxic radioactive waste and nuclear bomb material proliferation – even though many of these concerns and risks have been largely mitigated through technology and added-value applications and uses.
This isn’t your daddy’s nuclear energy.
In any case, nuclear fusion energy does not pose these risks to the environment and communities.
Ian Chapman, CEO of the U.K. Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), the British government’s nuclear energy organization says we simply have no other long-term way of getting to net-zero carbon emissions, especially because the global energy demand is projected to triple between 2050 and 2100. “Fusion is essential” to meet that need.
Tony Donné, EUROfusion’s program manager says “I can’t see what else it will be” – renewables such as wind and solar energy definitely have a role to play, but they aren’t likely to be enough.
Advantages of nuclear fusion energy:
· Abundant energy: Fusing atoms together in a controlled way releases nearly four million times more energy than a chemical reaction such as the burning of coal, oil or gas and four times as much as nuclear fission reactions (at equal mass). Fusion has the potential to provide the kind of baseload energy needed to provide electricity globally.
· Millions of years: Fusion energy commodity inputs are highly abundant globally.
· No CO₂: Scientists, environmental groups and organizations identify the challenge of lowering carbon emissions resulting from human-generated activities globally. While the science is debatable behind to what extent carbon emissions is affecting climate, everyone agrees that is it is best to minimize or eliminate polluting effluents such as carbon emissions into the environment, whether in the air, land or water. As such, nuclear fusion energy doesn’t emit harmful substances like carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
· No long-lived radioactive waste: Nuclear fusion reactors produce no high activity, long-lived nuclear waste. The activation of components in a fusion reactor is anticipated to be low enough for the materials to be recycled or reused within 100 years, depending on the materials used in the “first-wall” facing the plasma.
· Limited risk of proliferation: Fusion doesn’t employ fissile materials like uranium and plutonium. There are no enriched materials in a fusion reactor like ITER that could be exploited to make nuclear weapons.
· No risk of meltdown: A Fukushima-type nuclear accident is not possible in a fusion energy device. It is difficult enough to reach and maintain the precise conditions necessary for fusion—if any disturbance occurs, the plasma cools within seconds and the reaction stops. The quantity of fuel present in the vessel at any one time is enough for a few seconds only and there is no risk of a chain reaction.
· Cost: The power output of the kind of fusion reactor would likely be similar to that of a fission reactor (i.e., between 1 and 1.7 gigawatts). As with many new technologies, costs will be more expensive at first, when the technology is new, and gradually less expensive as economies of scale bring the costs down. Some links exploring the costs – link here, link here and link here.
Paul Dabbar, former Under Secretary for Science at the Department of Energy, said fusion does have the potential to one day be an affordable power source.
“The fuel is hydrogen,” said Dabbar. “Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, and also on Earth. You know our ability to use that for energy in theory should be quite cheap.”
Link here to a great discussion on some latest developments of fusion on Faster, Please! with Fusion Industry Association CEO Andrew Holland.
At the site of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), a poloidal field coil undergoes testing. Six of these ring-shaped magnets will steer plasma within the experiment. Credit: Alastair Philip Wiper
The key consideration we take on investing in nuclear fusion energy is our investment approach.
Our approach to investing is based on the principles of a unique school of thought known as the Austrian School of Economics, emphasizing great, high free cash flowing businesses with little or no debt or manageable debt, elements of scarcity and innovation. Our research team has distilled a set of observable and assessable metrics from these principles – there are several studies indicating these metrics have correlation with equity market outperformance, thus providing us with a statistical edge towards portfolio outperformance, although not necessarily guaranteed.
Further we look to assessing the extent to which the great businesses identified are aligned with the principles of Market Environmentalism, a set of 4 principles emanating from the Austrian School of Economics, which overall provide a market-based approach to helping the environment and promoting the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We feel this approach provides a better highway to meeting the SDGs versus approaches based on agenda-based environmentalism or approaches which rely on controlling, taxing or outright restricting human behavior, freedoms or liberties.
Given our investment approach in general, we provide consideration to investing in nuclear fusion with an emphasis on these factors:
· We invest in businesses meeting our metrics-based analysis highlighted above and aligned with the principles of Market Environmentalism – businesses that have relatively low or manageable debt, high free-cash-flows from legacy business units, significant to be able to fund the investment into the development of fusion energy on a large scale, and at the same time targeting equity outperformance as a dual mandate
· We invest in businesses that conduct significant fusion energy development or have ownership in private-based fusion energy development companies
· We invest in businesses that provide engineering and support, commodity inputs or specialized products/services in fusion energy power development and operations
To this end, we have identified several public-exchange traded companies which meet the above set of criteria. Let’s have a look at them here ..
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Disclaimer: This information and material contained in this post is of a general nature and is intended for educational purposes only. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. This post does not constitute a recommendation or a solicitation or offer of the purchase or sale of securities. Furthermore, this post does not endorse or recommend any tax, legal, or investment related strategy, trading related strategy or model portfolio. The future performance of an investment, trade, strategy or model portfolio cannot be deduced from past performance. As with any investment, trade, strategy or model portfolio, the outcome depends upon many factors including: investment or trading objectives, income, net worth, tax bracket, suitability, risk tolerance, as well as economic and market factors. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that investments, trades, strategies or model portfolios will be successful. All information contained in this post has been derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed.
03/24/2024 - Louis-Vincent Gave on the Importance of TikTok “The US House of Representatives’ approval of a bill aimed at forcing China’s Bytedance to divest TikTok has implications in areas far beyond the future of the wildly popular video-sharing platform. In this short video interview, Louis Gave examines the potential consequences for media freedom, for US-owned big-tech platforms, and for foreign investment in the United States.”
03/24/2024 - Climate: The Movie (The Cold Truth) – Supporting Market Environmentalism
03/23/2024 - CedarOwl – Introducing a new service – “We Invest in Positive Ideas” CedarOwl: We are excited to very soon be able to offer you a service which we hope you will find to be of value to you. The service focuses on helping to answer these questions:
The service will launch very soon within the next few weeks. You can subscribe today with your email address:
Disclaimer: The information and material provided (“Information”) on the CedarOwl substack is of a general nature and is intended for educational purposes only. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. The Information provided does not constitute a recommendation or a solicitation or offer of the purchase or sale of securities. Furthermore, the Information does not endorse or recommend any tax, legal, or investment related strategy, trading related strategy or model portfolio. The future performance of an investment, trade, strategy or model portfolio cannot be deduced from past performance. As with any investment, trade, strategy or model portfolio, the outcome depends upon many factors including: investment or trading objectives, income, net worth, tax bracket, suitability, risk tolerance, as well as economic and market factors. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that investments, trades, strategies or model portfolios will be successful. All Information has been derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed.
03/20/2024 - Russell Napier on Financial Repression, Investment Ideas and Debt Challenges
03/01/2024 - The Roundtable Insight – David Rosenberg, Peter Boockvar and Yra Harris on the Economy, the Financial Markets and Investment Ideas
Special Free Offer Trial from David Rosenberg on his research reports at Rosenberg Research – send an email to information@rosenbergresearch.com and request a free trial, mention you watched this podcast.
02/26/2024 - Alejandro Tagliavini on Argentina President Milei and the Market Economy that was Not
“There remains the hope that he will return to his speech, not so excellent, but in the right direction and adopt a free market economy, liberating, decreasing the weight of the State over the private sector.”
02/22/2024 - The Roundtable Insight – Vision Series – Charles Hugh Smith on AI and Job Challenges and Trends
02/22/2024 - The Roundtable Insight – Judd Hirschberg Technical Analysis Update on the Financial Markets
02/22/2024 - The Roundtable Insight – Larry McDonald and Yra Harris on Stagflation, Gold, Commodities, Rates and Currencies
02/15/2024 - The Roundtable Insight – Chris Whalen, Peter Boockvar and Yra Harris on Market, Financial and Banking Risks and Trends Download the Podcast in MP3 – Voice Only
01/31/2024 - Podcast on Heritage, Prestige and Its Influence on Business and Fundraising February 5, 2024
12pm ET
Watch on YouTube or view the Replay Later – to be posted on this media site
Participants:
Lady Violet Manners
Prince Charles Henri Lobkowicz
Princess Diana de Cadaval,
Richard Earl of Tyrone
Laurent Feniou CEO of Cartier
Alejandro Tagliavini
Richard Bonugli, CEO and Founder of Cedargold https://cedarportfolio.com
01/31/2024 - The Vision Series – Dr. Titus Gebel and Charles Hugh Smith on the Opportunities and Benefits of International Cities and Special Administrative Zones
01/24/2024 - The Four Principles of Market Environmentalism – How the Principles Can Be Used Toward Sustainable Investing
Market Environmentalism Webinar by The Cedar Portfolio
The Four Principles of Market Environmentalism emphasize property rights, voluntary exchange, competition, and entrepreneurship as key pillars for environmental conservation.
Applying these principles to sustainable investing involves supporting businesses that respect private property rights by minimizing negative environmental impacts, promoting voluntary exchange of eco-friendly goods, fostering competition to drive innovation for greener technologies, and investing in entrepreneurial endeavours focused on sustainable solutions.
By aligning investments with these principles, one can encourage the growth of environmentally conscious industries while seeking financial returns in a way that benefits both the economy and the planet.
Educational Webinar by The Cedar Portfolio presented by Founder Richard Bonugli
Link Here to the Replay of the Webinar on Interactive Brokers or click on the below and register directly to watch:
Link Here to Download the Presentation
For more information contact The Cedar Portfolio
01/17/2024 - The Roundtable Insight – Peter Boockvar and Yra Harris on Fed Policy, Gold, Inflation and Global Markets
01/10/2024 - The Roundtable Insight – Dr. Marc Faber and Yra Harris on Gold, U.S. Debt, Geopolitics and Emerging Markets Download the Podcast
12/27/2023 - McKinsey Study – Royalty Streaming Companies versus Mining Companies Returns
Link Here to the Source Article
12/22/2023 - Louis-Vincent Gave: «The Fed Will Cut Interest Rates for Political Reasons» “If you draw a line that goes from Istanbul to Jakarta, you are linking 3.6 billion people, not including China, in an area with 1% population growth and 5% income growth. To me, the most exciting story of the next five to ten years is the economic integration of the Eurasian continent, the growth in infrastructure spending, and the growth of trade between emerging markets. It’s my belief that a lot of these countries will follow China’s path. Perhaps not at the same pace, but it is happening.”
Link Here to the Interview on The Market.ch
12/08/2023 - Felix Zulauf Market Outlook
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