“Equity markets typically rally after the final hike in a Fed tightening cycle (Exhibit 7). I don’t think we are close to that final hike, but I concede a tactical rally is likely at the time. These rallies are driven partly by the fact that on average the first cut in a rate cycle comes 4 months after the final hike in the prior cycle.”
Blog
10/17/2022 - Gerard Minack – Rate Hikes and Equity Markets Outlook
10/14/2022 - Russell Napier – «We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale»
“First of all: avoid government bonds. Investors in government debt are the ones who will be robbed slowly. Within equities, there are sectors that will do very well. The great problems we have – energy, climate change, defence, inequality, our dependence on production from China – will all be solved by massive investment. This capex boom could last for a long time. Companies that are geared to this renaissance of capital spending will do well. Gold will do well once people realise that inflation won’t come down to pre-2020 levels but will settle between 4 and 6%. The disappointing performance of gold this year is somewhat clouded by the strong dollar. In yen, euro or sterling, gold has done pretty well already.”
10/11/2022 - Michael Shellenberger: The Renewable Energy Paradox
Michael Shellenberger, founder of Environmental Progress, said one of the “most misleading ways that renewable salespeople sell their technology” is they claim the electricity produced by wind and solar is cheaper.
10/11/2022 - Mish Shedlock: An Inflationary Quagmire of US and EU Climate Change Hypocrisy
US and EU energy policy is hypocritical, inflationary, and will do little to help the climate.
10/04/2022 - Financial Repression on Steroids: UN Agency calling for Price Controls, Windfall Profit Taxes and Commodities Regulation for addressing Inflation
10/03/2022 - Mish Shedlock – Non-U.S. Central Banks Selling U.S. Bonds to Minimize Adverse USD Strengthening Effects
The Strong Dollar is Getting on the Nerves of Foreign Central Banks
09/30/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Charles Hugh Smith on Self-Reliance in the 21st Century
09/21/2022 - Yra Harris – Take Jerome With a Big Grain of Salt
“Outside the US borders, the global economy is slowing and the stronger dollar and its influence in financing global finance is promoting a high probability of tightening financial conditions causing great stress for many dollar-dependent nations. If the consensus for an increase of 75 BASIS POINTS is correct look for the FED TO BE EXTREMELY HAWKISH WITH ITS USE OF THE DOT PLOTS. That’s the tool the FED has used to provide FORWARD GUIDANCE FOR MANY YEARS. The central bank has maintained that they would move away from FORWARD GUIDANCE but its use is too valuable a tool on a cost-benefit basis.”
09/21/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Judd Hirschberg Analyzes the Financial Markets
09/20/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Dr. Anas Alhajji and Yra Harris on Oil, Gas, Energy and Geopolitics
09/13/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Joseph Wang and Yra Harris on Central Bank Policies, QT, USD and Interest Rates
08/30/2022 - Myret Zaki Crisis Investing – Profits with a Good Conscience
“Investing in bringing the value chain closer to home and in reducing dependency on polluting energy sources is a win-win strategy. ”
08/29/2022 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on Inflation, Commodities and the Investment Environment
Link Here to the Quarterly Conference Call
08/28/2022 - Dr. Albert Friedberg Quarterly Report
“Until the Fed shows some understanding of the issues here discussed and until they move to implement policies that will remove inflationary pressures and incentives to misallocate resources, we see no need to abandon our investment stance. It can be summed up as bullish on inflation and not bullish on growth.”
08/28/2022 - Yra Harris – Dear Jerome
“The FED cannot eliminate supply bottlenecks but it can reduce demand by raising rates and reducing liquidity through WEALTH DESTRUCTION. That means crushing the global stock markets as the Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote in an oped, “The US Federal Reserve actively wishes to crush Stock Markets: Ignore It At Your Own Peril.” Evans-Pritchard delineates what the FED‘s objective is, and Powell and his minions, “are now on a mission to redeem themselves and prove they can conquer inflation after all. Zeal is a dangerous thing. That is why I fear the Jackson Hole of 2022.”
I believe the strong dollar is going to unleash some real pain upon the global financial system, which will fall back on the FED. Good thing the swap lines and repo facilities are in place to backstop the entire global financial system. Those who praise the strong DOLLAR are singing from a 1970s hymnal when trade was paramount to finance. But in today’s world of FED policy unleashing massive dollar funding upon the emerging markets, be very careful. KING dollar is not what it once was and this is coming from an Austrian-based sound money analyst.”
08/26/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Charles Hugh Smith on the Insanity of Central Banks in Addressing Inflation
08/17/2022 - Yra Harris – Neutral
“he EQUITY markets have recovered more than 50% of their first-half losses stoking the call from WALL STREET that it is all clear WEENA. BUT I CAUTION: This is not an INVESTING MARKET BUT TRADING MARKET as we await to hear from Chair Jerome Powell on the FED‘s future path, especially as the central bank’s balance sheet reduction ramps up to its maximum levels next month. NOBODY can be certain of the impact of removing liquidity from what has been an over-leveraged market living on the liquidity drug provided by QE.”
08/12/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Doomberg and Yra Harris on Energy and Geo-Political Risks
08/04/2022 - Yra Harris – Dissecting the Fed With Darius Dale
“I also posit that the rise in rates may have been in response to a note published Monday night by Zoltan Pozsar, titled War and Interest Rates. The piece covers our favorite topic: global political economy. It is worth reading at least twice. A key takeaway is that Pozsar maintains that we need to take Powell at his word about his will to fight inflation and that the “risk of the FED hiking to 5or 6% is very real, and ditto the risk of rates cresting there despite economic and asset price pain.” If Pozsar is correct … well, do the math.”