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11/20/2015 - PURU SAXENA SAYS: “FINANCIAL MARKETS ARE SO DISTORTED AND SO TWISTED THAT RELIABLE INDICATORS ARE NO LONGER WORKING. EVERYTHING IS BACKWARDS!”

Special Guest: Puru Saxena – Founder and CEO Puru Saxena Wealth Management

As part of the ongoing series of Austrian School of Economics, FRA Co-Founder Gordon T. Long sits with Puru Saxena, of Puru Saxena Wealth Management. Mr. Saxena is the portfolio manager of his firm and he oversees discretionary investment mandates. He is also responsible for heading the firm’s research process and formulating investment strategy.

Mr. Saxena has extensive investment experience and he is a registered investment advisor/money manager with the Securities & Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Highly respected in the investment management business, he is a regular guest on various media such as CNN, BBC, CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters and a host of other channels. Furthermore, he is regularly featured in several publications such as Barron’s, Hong Kong Economic Times, South China Morning Post, Benchmark magazine, Hong Kong Business and China Daily.

Mr. Saxena is also the editor of a monthly economic report – Money Matters. A highly acclaimed publication is read by professional and retail investors in numerous countries. He first began publishing his monthly economic report in June 2000 and it has now attracted a wide following. Prior to establishing Puru Saxena Wealth Management in 2005, he was a Founding Director and President of financial services firm – Bridgewater (now Tyche Group), where he oversaw the firm’s investment strategy.

LIMITING CENTRAL BANKS BALANCE SHEET GROWTH

“Financial markets are so distorted and so twisted that reliable indicators are no longer working. Everything is backwards”.

People are so conditioned now of believing the stimulus jargon that every time a central bank utters the word stimulus, everybody starts buying stocks again. If you look at japan, they have tried this for nearly 25 years now, and we have had recession after recession. There are zero percent short term interest rates, and not much economic growth in Japan. I don’t think this monetary experiment is going to end very well.

CENTRAL BANKS FUTURE ACTIONS

“I would be very weary by promises from the government and central banks at this point because they have a vested interest.”

I think they will try and inflate this in a typical Keynesian manner. We have negative interest rates already throughout Europe, so it won’t surprise me if you have it in the US.

“The problem isn’t a liquidity problem, it is a debt problem.”

The world has never been so indebted; the debt to GDP ratio is now over 280% globally. When you have this much accumulated debt, history has shown that economic growth slows down. Economic growth, by definition, comes from the private sector taking on more debt. When people borrow, they bring forth tomorrows consumption, today, and they consume without ever buying any assets.

“Whatever they’re doing, it’s not working.”

Central planners do not realize that if somebody is already in debt, they are not going to borrow anymore with interest rates at zero. We are currently in a deflationary environment. Central planners are trying to fight this by implementing quantitative easing, and all sorts of bizarre experiments. But at the end of the day the monetary velocity is at a decade low.

At some point, maybe even next year, we are going to get a recession. We are going to get a global recession which will occur at a time where interest rates at the short end of the curve are already at zero.

“Asset prices are going to deflate quite sharply and when this happens, there will be chaos.”

CURRENT MARKET MISCONCEPTIONS

“Major mistake people have is that QE works, or stimulus works.”

First one is that QE causes hyperinflation and therefore everybody drove up the prices of commodities to multi year highs. Investors still believe QE causes economic growth, I do not believe this. People think stimulus will cause economic recoveries and economic growth. When people realize stimulus actually leads to anti-growth you will see a big sell off in equities.

The one thing I’ve learned from being in this field from 16 years is that markets go up and markets go down. There is no one way street.

TO DIVERSIFY INTERNATIONALLY

“I think investors should keep a large chunk of their money in cash right now and long term treasuries are also a good idea.”

But if you’re look at a long term horizon, (i.e. 5 years+) I think investors should start looking at the beaten down commodity areas. Commodities have been decimated over the last 4 tears. If it was me I would not buy any equities right now. We personally don’t own any stocks on the long side for our clients at the present. The downside risks for many stocks is greater than their upside potential.

Abstract written by Karan Singh karan1.singh@ryerson.ca

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


11/20/2015 - Robert Wenzel – The Fed Flunks! My Austrian Economic Speech at the NY Federal Reserve

Special Guest: Robert Wenzel – Editor & Publisher of Economic Policy Journal.com & Target Liberty

 

Investing based on The Austrian school of Economics

FRA Interview of Robert Wenzel by FRA Co-founder Gordon T Long.

Across well-known literature, the Austrian school of economics has earned and put its indelible mark on the complicated world of economic analysis and theory. The school of thought varies significantly from the mainstream schools of economics like the classical, neoclassical and Keynesian schools of thought. In essence the Austrian school of thought believes in using logical thoughts to explain and solve economic problems rather than getting technical and going into mathematics to explain the same problems.

“The key to understanding is that what you have with mainstream economists is that they look at things from a very mathematical, very empirical approach… unlike in physical sciences you cannot do that for the science of economics because you’re dealing so many variables like changes and desires”

Unlike the mainstream none-Austrian economists, Wenzel believes that there’s a lot to be understood from the economy based on logical build up from solid premises. He goes on to mention that another key aspect to be understood is that Austrian economists believe that when the Fed injects money into certain sectors of the economy, it’s those sectors that turn to boom. According to Wenzel, when the Feds eventually start tightening this money supply it leads to a crash.

On the current economy:

“We’re in a period of accelerated money supply”

Wenzel thinks there could be an increase in price inflation and the possibility of another dip in the price of oil.

Explaining how we have inflation in some areas and deflation in others when we’ve been pumping money into the system, he explains it by outlining how it depends on how quickly people want to spend the money.

“if there’s a great desire to hold money, you’re not going to see the inflation right away”

When people don’t spend money what happens is you have money building up in cash balances which Wenzel terms “the desire to hold cash balances”. With this you see people reluctant to spend money and hence a low velocity of money.

On the confusing environment of economics and how understanding the Austrian school can help to clear things up …. Understanding the business cycle and inflation comes about in terms of the Austrian school of thought. It definitely helps to clear a lot of things up but even more can be taken from this approach. The methodology additionally helps out in terms of having people analyzing the world through logic rather than attacking it solely with empirical data.

On considering Quantitative easing and going into negative nominal rates …. QE is a method where the fed prints a lot of money and buys long durtion debt. The negative nominal rates idea is based on the Keynesian idea that it’s spending that helps the economy to grow, so the idea is to use negative rates to pressure people to spend their money. Wenzel calls this “a tax on holding money”.

Asked if he sees Hyperinflation in the future:

It could happen at some point. The Fed’s target of 2% could easily go up to three 3% with accelerated printing of money. At this point they might raise rates but if the inflation is at 5% and they raise rates from 12bp to 2% that still won’t be able to fight the inflation. However it may be too soon to say hyperinflation.

The business cycle should be understood as a boom and bust cycle.

“Whatever is going up now does not necessarily mean it will go up long term. The bust will occur but they will pump it up with new fed printing, which is eventually where the inflation comes in”

Abstract by Agang Moeng. Can be reached at agang.moeng@ryerson.ca

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The infographic above shows some differences in Keynesian and Austrian views. Courtesy of The Austrian Insider.

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


11/20/2015 - Alasdair Macleod – THE FALSE PERCEPTION OF LIVING IN A WORLD OF INFINITE CREDIT

FRA co-founder Gordon T. Long deliberates with Alasdair Macleod, head of research at GoldMoney on the Austrian School of Economics in an Era of Financial Repression.

Alasdair. Macleod began his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Through experience he rapidly learned about things as diverse as mining shares and general economics, within nine years he had risen to become senior partner of his firm.

Subsequently, he has held positions at director level in investment management, as a mutual fund manager, and also at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director. For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been de-mystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. From the accumulation of his experience he concluded that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments’ use against people.

“I want to destroy this business of printing money as the solution to everything.”

Mr. Macleod strives to educate and inform the public in layman’s terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.

WHAT IS AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS

“Prices are entirely subjective.”

It began with Carl Menger who was one of the 3 economics who came up with marginal theory of prices. Where Menger differed from other two was that he appreciated that prices were purely subjective. You cannot forecast tomorrow’s prices because prices are determined by the consumer who always has the option to buy.

“It overturns the cost theory of prices which is what Adam Smith believed in. It is completely irrelevant.”

The law of the markets, the reason you and I work is we go out to earn something. We need to transform our skills into consumption. In a free market economy we have people who use their skills to earn money for consumption; the intermediary in this is money. Money is nothing more than the temporary storage of someone’s labour that is transferrable into goods. If you understand this you will see how unsound money is bad for an economy. The idea by printing money which runs a budget deficit that a government can generate economic growth is nonsense.

“In regards to investing one thing that is desperately important to understand is that asset prices always refer back to their production.”

This applies across every asset that you buy. If you see that the prices of assets have moved away from their underlining productive value then you know that you are in a bubble.

A WORLD OF INFINITE CREDIT

“The world post 1970’s is a completely different world from before the 1970s.”

After 1981 rates had been lifted to a point which stopped the relationship between businesses and savers. This is what killed the price inflation up until the early 90s. Banks not only had the liberty to print credit but also to monopolize and control securities markets, if you combine these two thongs together; it is basically a money making machine, which is what we have today.

The end point in credit comes from the logical conclusion of that development. At every cyclical peak the level of interest rates which collapse the economy gets lower. The reason it gets lower is because this combination of credit control in securities markets does nothing more than just pumps up the level of debt. The overhang of debt means the rise in interest rates to stop the economy from getting out of control is getting lower. You cannot raise interest rates by more than one or two percent without serious economic dislocation.

NEGATIVE NOMINAL INTEREST RATES

“The effect of negative interest rates would be to throw every commodity into backwardation.”

There is no doubt that negative interest would drive up inflation, or rather, it would lower the purchasing power of said currency. Negative interest rates for the reserve currency in which all commodities are priced have a severe risk which we will generate runaway inflation, but in fact it is a collapse. In order to make negative interest rates work you need to ban cash entirely. I have no doubt at all that that is the underlying reason why there is so much emphasis on anti-money laundering.

THE FMQ CONCEPT

11-20-15-FRA-Alasdair_Macleod-00-2-420“The fiat money quantity is the amount of money that would have to be redeemed for gold that once was deposited.”

The fiat money quantity was put together to try to quantify the amount of money that Is being issued in return for the gold that we originally gave to our banks which the banks then handed to the federal reserve.
The reason for doing this is to try to get an idea of how much money is not only in public circulation, but also not in public circulation and potentially in public circulation. From looking at the Feds balance sheet and considering other factors like repos and reverse repos, we see that the growth curve has taken off; and in the very broadest sense we have monetary hyperinflation.

Abstract written by Karan Singh karan1.singh@ryerson.ca

 

 

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


11/19/2015 - FRA’s Gordon T Long Is Interviewed By Dan Popescu On Financial Repression

Discussion between Dan Popescu & Gordon T Long .. Financial repression & interest rates .. Deflation, inflation or hyperinflation .. The currency wars and the dollar: up or down? .. Gold & Silver: an insurance policy .. Banning cash & the cashless society .. China gold, yuan & the SDR .. 25 minutes

LINK HERE to the French version of this

 

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Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


11/13/2015 - Round Table with Charles Hugh Smith & Rick Ackerman – What We Should Expect From the Fed

Special Guests: Charles Hugh Smith – OFTWOMINDS.COM; Rick Ackerman – rickackerman.com

 

Charles Hugh Smith is an American writer and blogger. He is the chief writer for the site “Of Two Minds”, which started in 2005. His work has been featured on a number of highly acclaimed sites including: Zerohedge.com., The American Conservative and Peak Prosperity.

Rick Ackerman has professional background including 12 years as a market maker on the floor of the Pacific Coast Exchange, three as an investigator with renowned San Francisco private eye Hal Lipset, seven as a reporter and newspaper editor, three as a columnist for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner, and two decades as a contributor to publications ranging from Barron’s to The Antiquarian Bookman to Fleet Street Letter and Utne Reader. Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks and a partner in Blue Fin Financial LLC, a commodity trading advisor.

 

 

06-17-15-FRA-Issues-Mish_Shedlock-Illinois-Four_Pillars-Obfuscation-420Co-founder of The Financial Repression Authority, Gordon T. Long has an in-depth discussion on the current financial situation with Charles Hugh Smith, of OfTwominds.com and with Rick Ackerman, trader and forecaster of Rickackerman.com.

THE OUTLOOK ON QUANTITATIVE EASING

Rick:

“I’ve been shouting from the rooftops that the fed will never raise interest rates.”

If you want to find out if QE is working the first person you have to go to is the retiree. The whole idea of stimulus should have been refuted simply by the fact that savers have been cheated for so long.

Charles:

They may go ahead and do the quarter point rates increase because they have built up so many expectations to that. They will need to do this to create the allusion that the economy is recovering or else it’s robust.

Gordon:

The market may be a key driving factor, not because of the wealth effect; but because of collateral.

THE STATE OF JAPAN:

Charles:

“The Juggernaut of deflation is so huge now, that there isn’t going to be any time to react. Keep a shoebox full of cash because on that day we might wake up and the banks won’t be open, we will need that cash.”

I don’t see the possibility of massive inflation. The only viable way of getting money into the system is to borrow it into existence.

Japan, is a developed economy that has been in a deflationary setting for almost 25 years now. We can see what they’ve done and what effects it has. They have attempted to stimulate their economy by improving roads and infrastructure. But it has not worked. Japan refuses to cleanse their financial system to allow real investment so they have consequently brought in mal-investment with borrowed money.

05-07-15-FRA-Richard Duncan-19Rick:

Japan had something over the last 20 years that we didn’t have, and that is us. Japan has a global economy to export into; we were the buyer of last resort.

NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES

Rick:

“If you can extrapolate a somehow positive benefit from negative interest rates, where would this benefit be and how long would it last?”

The idea is if people can no longer park money anywhere, they can only spend it or invest it, we have to ask, where are they going to invest or spend it? It’s inconceivable that money can find itself into somewhere in the economy that would promote growth and economic health.

Charles:

In a current example of negative interest rates we see what is happening with Sweden who is actively pursuing negative rates. The net result is that it is taking their housing bubble and inflating it even further. Basically it is pricing everybody out of housing and creating a credit bubble.

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COLLATERAL GUARANTEES

Gordon:

“It is in the cards, in the middle of the next crisis.”

We have an approximately $500 trillion swaps market that is underpinned with collateral. So if bond prices were to drop it would be a horrendous situation. We were able to stop the 2008 crisis, we did not fix it we only stopped it. Now it will be a global issue, and the central banks will be forced to come in and pay attention to these collateral values. We have a huge pool of bond ETF’s that have exploded in the past few years, somebody has to sell these bonds but they are not easily transferred. The central banks will have to intervene in a massive way. I believe many people are betting on this, and are therefore taking risk adjusted positions.

Rick:

“We are really talking about a quadrillion dollar bubble.”

Much of borrowing and leveraging shifted into rehypothecation. It occurred mostly in London markets that were more unregulated than US markets. So when we had the real estate bust in 2008 we needed something to pledge as collateral.

When you look at the entire quadrillion dollar enchilada, somebody may say the actual size of the bubble is only several hundred trillion dollars. When in reality the gross amount is something everyone involved in the daisy chain thinks they have a claim on a particular asset.

Charles:

We must own real assets, and have no debt. Whatever financial wormhole we are going to go through,we must own the right tools, because the tools will still exist after we get through the wormhole.

THE INDIRECT EXCHANGE:

11-06-15-FRA-CHS-Robert_Ackerman-13-420Regarding a recent show with Warren Buffet, and Ty Andros, Editor at Tedbits Newsletter,

Warren Buffet so masterfully utilizes the indirect exchange. He takes paper, which is his entire insurance side of business and plows it back into real hard assets that will sustain themselves at a fair price. Buffet has don’t this so consistently for so many years and that is why balances; paper products (insurances, bonds, and structures against real assets). Buffet has certainly been a consistent winner without question.

Rick:

Buffet has also resisted the temptation of going after easy money. His money is not in Uber, Dropbox, and Instagram etc. It’s simple to see that it is not going to end well, not only for the companies but for the whole city, if I were to short any city in this country it would be San Francisco. Everything is so pumped up in that city because there are companies that hire these people that are extremely overvalued.

Buffet has demonstrated amazing restraint and discipline for sticking with the nuts and bolts, instead of going after the alluring high attraction companies. He has found real businesses with real products that have a sustaining capability to survive during good times and bad.

Charles:

Raising the issue of risk, how do we deal with the kind of systemic global risk that we currently have? Risk is extremely misrepresented to the average middle class American. We are trying to help people make a realistic assessment of the global risk they are engaged in by having a 401k that is involved in these risky financial assets.

CLOSING REMARKS

Rick:

“You can’t look at what’s in prospect as hypothetical, if you don’t think there is going to be a collapse then you don’t understand the problem.”

There is no way we can continue to muddle on, for one its taking a lot more debt to create the dollars’ worth of GDP growth at the margin. We are really going to face a day of reckoning. The most important thing is for us to be resourceful and ready for when it comes.

Charles:

“This enormous supernova of debt is going to implode and whatever is left will not be a financial instrument.”

Gordon:

“Crisis is nothing more than change trying to happen.”

We have so many global imbalances. We have political, economic, and financial systems that are not correct, we are still running from a Bretton Woods; post WWII model. And during this process, mal-investment, lack of price discovery and mispricing are rampant.

But on the flip side, for those who have prepared themselves for this storm, I think the world is going to see its greatest years. The advancements in technology, and so many other endeavors is staggering.  !5-25 years out will be an incredible time for the world but meanwhile we are going to go through some rough times, but there will be winners and there will be losers, and the winners are always the ones who prepare.

Abstract written by Karan Singh karan1.singh@ryerson.ca

 

 

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


11/08/2015 - Financial Repression: How Central Banks Can Implement Negative Interest Rates Without Confiscating Physical Cash

WealthTerra

Article explaining recent research paper to address the big problem with forced negative interest rates – depositors would see the numerical value of their bank deposits go lower & withdraw the cash to put it into their safety deposit box or to store it at home .. Miles Kimball, professor of economics at the University of Michigan, explains that flight to cash could be prevented in the latest economic review from the National Institute of Economic and Social
Research (NIESR) .. 
the basic idea is to attribute a negative interest rate for banks to accept physical cash if you deposit the cash into your bank account & to set this negative rate higher (more negative) than the negative interest rates you are getting at the bank account .. that way you are not only encouraged to spend your money before you have less of it, but also to bring in your physical cash as quickly as possible to the bank before it losses even more value faster .. “Paper money would be depreciating in value more quickly than electronic money. In effect, paper money would have higher inflation than electronic money.”

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


11/04/2015 - 2 Solutions To Investing In Financial Repression By Vulpes’ Stephen Diggle

Vulpes Investment Management Founder Stephen Diggle goes through the math to explain the challenges for investing sufficient capital & generating enough yields for retirement .. how do you get yield in today’s environment of repressed interest rates & quantitative easing ., on concerns these investments are illiquid: “These sorts of solutions to the Yield Problem do have the major disadvantage of being illiquid and that is a real consideration. However, well run endowment and pension funds are supposed to have a clear idea of the ‘long term liability matching’ which they exist to do, so while a cash reserve of liquid assets would always be prudent, it’s hard to see how that safety amount would ever exceed 10-15% of assets. Liquidity is a nice thing to have, and usually better than illiquidity (although some make an argument that a long term commitment when enforced produces better returns); but when the price of liquidity is investment failure; as we would see the whole sovereign bond market, it is a crutch that must be foregone. In the real world no-one will have a pension fund comprising of one alternative asset, but the returns above are not fictional. We believe they are distinctly possible both for the pension disaster of traditional assets and the transformational impact of high yielding alternatives. We’d go further to say that it is almost inevitable that the coming crisis in retirement will lead pension funds of the near future into many more alternative assets, agriculture and real estate included.”

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


11/01/2015 - Financial Repression – The Unintended Consequences

“Financial repression is not a conspiracy theory, it is rather a collective set of macroprudential policies focused on controlling and reducing excessive government debt through 4 pillars – negative interest rates, inflation, ring-fencing regulations and obfuscation – to effectively transfer purchasing power from private savings.” – The Financial Repression Authority

LINK HERE to our Article

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Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


11/01/2015 - The Era of Financial Repression: Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund says Monetary Policy is a Risk to Watch

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“Monetary policy does affect pricing in today’s market to such an extent that monetary policy itself has been a risk you have to watch .. Investors are focused more on monetary policy changes than has been generally the case, than at any time, as far as I can remember .. As anything that moves prices is a risk that has to be monitored, here the effects of monetary policy affect prices dramatically .. It’s of course always been the case with long rates, and now more significantly with the currency. That’s just a fact of the current market.”

– Yngve Slyngstad, chief executive officer of Norway’s $890 billion sovereign-wealth fund

LINK HERE to the Article

“Financial repression is not a conspiracy theory, it is rather a collective set of macroprudential policies focused on controlling and reducing excessive government debt through 4 pillars – negative interest rates, inflation, ring-fencing regulations and obfuscation – to effectively transfer purchasing power from private savings.” – The Financial Repression Authority

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


11/01/2015 - Financial Repression Is Making It Difficult To Retire: How Do You Retire On Little Or No Savings?

Essay by our strategic partner Charles Hugh Smith who explains the challenges and issues for Americans (applies also to Canadians and Europeans) to retire, especially when interest rates are repressed to virtually 0% by central banks to the point where it is difficult to get any yield out of savings. Is there a way to retire on little or no savings and little or no income?

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Sadajiwa Rukun CareResort AbsoluteLiving NobleCare

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


11/01/2015 - Scotiabank’s Guy Haselmann on Financial Repression

Guy Haselmann of Scotiabank checks the definition of a free-market economy, confirms that is not what we have today .. given the financial repression of “regulatory macroprudential policies conspiring with zero (or negative) interest rates & asset purchases to exterminate the markets’ ability to freely calibrate clearing market prices based on supply and demand factors. It is impossible for central banks to sustain controlling influence on market sentiment, investor behavior, correlations, and valuations, simply because effectiveness wanes over time.” 

LINK HERE to the Article

Some pointers for investors in an environment of long-term 0% interest rates & worldwide QE programs .. “Stock and bond diversification alone will not be enough to adequately protect a portfolio” .. Scotiabank’s Guy Haselmann suggests:
1) It is time to find ways to preserve capital. Return of capital strategies now trump return on capital pursuits. 
2) Where possible, transition from financial to real assets .. such as, real estate, farm land, collectables, art, other non-correlated & less-cyclical assets.
3) Cash has never had better optionality or a lower opportunity cost.
4) I remain a bond bull in long U.S. Treasuries for regulatory, technical, fundamental reasons. 
5) Find companies & countries with low levels of debt & stable cash flows.
6) Despite recent bad press, alternative investments should be considered.
7) Place larger premium on market liquidity & counter-party risk.

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


10/31/2015 - Ty Andros – The Austrian School of Economics Uses the “Indirect Exchange” to Capture Real Wealth

Special Guest: Ty Andros – CIO Sanctuary Fund, Publisher of “Tedbits”

 

FRA Co-Founder Gordon T. Long deliberates the Austrian School of Economics with Ty Andros of Tedbits Newsletter. Ty Andros began his commodity career in the early 1980’s and became a managed futures specialist beginning in 1985.Mr. Andros attended the University of San Diego, and the University of Miami, majoring in Marketing, Economics and Business Administration. Mr. Andros is active in Economic analysis and brings this information and analysis to his clients on a regular basis.

WHAT IS AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS?

“Austrian economics is just human behaviour, and common sense, and history.”

“But what’s happening is human behaviour, nonsense, and history. We are at a period where people have forgotten history and are doomed to repeat it. “

“Austrian school and capitalism are one in the same.”

“Austrian Economics is production of wealth, producing more than you consume. Meeting people’s needs and doing it in a superior manner; in other words, capitalism.”

The historical school, had argued that economic science is incapable of generating universal principles and that scientific research should instead be focused on detailed historical examination. The school thought the English classical economists mistaken in believing in economic laws that transcended time and national boundaries.

APPLYING AUSTRIANISM TO INVESTING

“You have to prey on paper.”

“The only real way the middle class will get to success is going out serving others and getting rewarded for it.”

“Austrian school is just history, common sense, and the production of wealth; everything else will flow from there. The reason middle classes cannot rise is somehow the public has gotten the idea that they are going to raise their lifestyle through the stroke of a pen at a central bank or other government bodies.”

THE INDIRECT EXCHANGE

“In today’s world economic growth is a function of a printing press; consumption presented as production.”

It is a situation in which goods, services, etc. are traded between two countries using the currency of a third country. Real wealth can only be created by growing it, mining it, building it, manufacturing it; being rewarded for providing more goods and services for less to consumers. What we have now is phony capitalism, which is more money for less goods and services, while consumer demand is being mandated by government planning and controlled by central banking.

EVENTS TO UNFOLD IN THE UPCOMING YEARS

“We are in a death event.”

“If you date interest rates going back 600-600 years, we have never once had a scenario where they were kept at zero for 6 years. What we have is a flat line; just like in any medical monitor a flat line is fatal.”

“The system is dead, we are just sitting there on the fumes and they can’t relight it because they have outlawed free enterprise capitalism, and wealth creation. Look at the health care system right now, it is just a leviathan. They went in there and wrote Obama Care for themselves and that’s how they became supporters. It was government sanctioned.”

“Just look at Japan, we are headed right there.”

“The long term the yield curve is going to invert, but it is going to invert near zero. There is no growth, the only growth there is, is just credit creation. To spurt credit creation they have to make it easier for people to borrow so people can miscalculate their returns.”

CURRENCY EXTINCTION

“Currencies expire when people wake up, the value that currencies hold are only values within people’s minds.”

There is absolutely no value in them. As long as they are perceived as having real worth, you can purchase real things; this is the indirect exchange. Money is a store of value because it is not pegged to anything, as long as this allusion is there; we are substituting it to grab a hold of real cash flowing assets.10-23-14-FRA-Ty_Andros-Indirect_Exchange_Graphic-420

THE LEVERAGE COLLAPSE

“The dollar is going down, and it is going to die; but it will be the last to die.”

“They really have people thinking that the dollar is a risk free asset, and it is not. It is a worthless junk bond.  Currencies don’t float, they just sink at different rates, and the sinking is managed by the BIS and the ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan etc. and they all mange the theft of remaining value with their printing presses.”

“The financial systems were given the keys to the castle. These economies are not run for the benefit of the entrepreneur; they are run for the benefit of the financiers. It is a game that the central banks have been playing since the 1600’s when the Rothschild’s went after the Bank of England. We are in troubling times and we need to be well informed. If you are an investor and you do it right, it will be the greatest time in history.”

“A Depression is incoming and this one will be nasty, in fact it will be the worst one ever.”

Abstract written by Karan Singh karan1.singh@ryerson.ca

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


10/30/2015 - Chris Casey: The Austrian Case for Inflation

Special Guest: Chris Casey – Managing Director, WindRock Wealth Management

 

FRA Co-Founder, Gordon T. Long interviewed Chris Casey of Windrock Wealth Management on the concept of inflation and other applications of Austrian economics to investment theory.  Mr. Casey, an Austrian economist, is a frequent speaker and writer on macroeconomic topics and their related investment implications.

WHAT IS AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS AND WHY DOES IT MATTER?

The Austrian school offers the “most realistic interpretation” of society and economics according to Mr. Casey.  Gordon agrees in noting that “mathematical models are only as good as their assumptions.”  While equations and models may be useful as a construct to frame concepts, any social science cannot be scientifically tested due to the inability to control the countless variables at work.  As such, Mr. Casey prefers the Austrian approach which “looks at basic self-evident axioms as it relates to mankind in nature and then uses deductive reasoning to describe how the real world works.”  According to Mr. Casey, the unique Austrian explanations of inflation and the business cycle (recessions) have direct applications to practical investment ideas.

THE AUSTRIAN EXPLANATION OF RECESSIONS

Most mainstream economists believe recessions are inherent to capitalism since their repeated cycles largely began during the industrial revolution.  The Austrian school recognizes a different causation occurring at the same time: fiat money with or without central banking.  By artificially increasing the money supply through fiat money, interest rate levels are temporarily lowered.  This incents businesses and individuals to make investment decisions they would not otherwise have made: in short, malinvestments.  Recessions to liquidate the inevitably follow monetary mischief.

THE AUSTRIAN EXPLANATION OF INFLATION

The Keynesian school of economics has two theories of inflation which fail to comport with reality and are theoretically faulty.  Their “demand-pull” explanation requires full employment and full capacity in an economy, but Mr. Casey demonstrates that fails to account for a doubling of prices during the 1970’s during economic weakness.

The “cost-push” theory is equally wrong.  By blaming a particular price increase in a commodity such as oil for all price increases, it would have predicted pronounced inflation and deflation over the last 15 years as the oil price gyrated wildly.  In addition, it is theoretically faulty as more money spent on oil means less money is spent on other goods and services – which lowers their prices and renders the overall price level largely unaffected.

“Prices are merely a function of the supply and demand for money” states Mr. Casey.  More supply means dollars are worth less while higher demand lowers prices as people seek to increase cash balances by selling goods and services through lower prices.

WHEN WILL WE EXPERIENCE INFLATION?

Mr. Casey believes that “once we have another downturn, the Fed . . . will step right in.  Once we have that . . . we’ll really start to see the inflation take off.”

What will the Federal Reserve’s next move be?  They have other options besides another round of quantitative easing.  Mr. Casey notes they may stop paying interest on excess reserves held by commercial banks at the Federal Reserve, and they may also lower the reserve requirement which could have a pronounced and immediate impact on increasing the supply of money.

WHAT SHOULD INVESTORS DO?

“Timing is everything, so utilize investments which pay well now, but in an inflation will be a home run.”

CLICK to Download Article pdf

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Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


10/30/2015 - Doug Casey: Retirement & Living Overseas for Americans – The Growing Trend (& Need!)

Special Guest: Doug Casey – Casey Research Personal Freedom Through Financial Freedom

 

FRA Co-Founder Gordon T. Long interviews Doug Casey on the different and emerging trends that are taking place in the U.S. Doug is an author, investor and founder of Casey Research.

On trends and changes in the U.S, Doug relates it to a “lush, comfortable and well maintained prison”. In his opinion th
e country is gradually degrading. He points out that the standard of living in other countries is steadily going up unlike before when the standard of living in the U.S was clearly ahead of others.

He agrees with Gordon on the fact that very soon people will be forced to retire outside of the U.S due to the rising health and medical costs. Doug points out this trend will only just increase because for years the current good standard of living being enjoyed by the U.S is a result of the heavy borrowing that has been taking place for years.

When you take on debt, you are either mortgaging your future or you are consuming capital that somebody has saved in the past and lent to you to increase your standard of living now, but when you pay the debt you reduce your standard of living by more than that amount because you have to pay interest on it in addition”.

He predicts that when interest rates start going back up, things are going to get bad quickly, and he advises people to take precaution now by diversifying both politically and geographically while they can. He also recommends that people should acquire as many gold and silver coins as possible as it would be a great way to conserve capital.

“I don’t think in today’s high tech world, the government serves a useful purpose. There’s nothing that the state does that could not and would not be done better and cheaper and without coercion by the free market”.

“If you are the citizen of a country, the government considers you as its property this is why you are better of living in a country where you are not a citizen, and so they treat you as a guest to be cultivated as opposed to a milk cow that has to be milked”.

On the issue of people renouncing the U.S citizenship, Doug believes that this trend will simply keep on increasing. He likens this increasing exodus to what happened in the past, when the American predecessors left England in search of greener opportunities. He advises that Americans’ who value their freedom should look into getting dual citizenships.

“The quality of medical care is at least as good outside the U.S as it is in the U.S and it is much much less expensive”.

Doug believes that the popular belief held by most people, that the medical coverage you get when traveling the world is of a lesser quality as that in the United States is wrong. In his opinion you receive a cheaper and much better service.

 

Abstract written by Chukwuma Uwaga – chuwaga@gmail.com10-23-14-FRA-Doug_Casey-00-Cover-39

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


10/30/2015 - Financial Repression By Central Banks

CitizenshipSolutions

Tim Price compares the approach being taken by the central bankers of the massively indebted western world to North Korea .. highlights how the rest of Asia has a bright future for economic growth, given its positive demographics & high savings rate .. “A combination of a Zero Interest Rate Policy, generalized financial repression and trillions of dollars, pounds, euros and yen all conjured out of thin air has failed to trigger inflation in the narrower CPI sense of the word. Central banks, in other words, have failed. Analyst and market historian Russell Napier of Cerno Capital suggests that ‘Central banks’ failure to reflate will be very damaging for the price of financial assets and will also ultimately trigger reflation from another source: the government.'” .. likes gold for protection against likely massive central bank monetary easing & government stimulus by the indebted western world in an attempt to generate inflation .. considers an outcome of ‘deflation followed by inflation’ to imply holding these investments: cash held at reputable and solvent banks, objectively creditworthy sovereign debt, inexpensive but high quality listed stocks, gold… concludes: “You would have thought that North Korea had done a reasonable job of invalidating the legitimacy of state socialism and central planning. Perhaps Janet Yellen, Mark Carney and Mario Draghi could go visit sometime. One way fares would suffice.”

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


10/30/2015 - Robert Blumen: The Core Tenets of the Austrian School of Economics

Special Guest: Robert Blumen – Follower of the Austrian School of Economics

 

FRA Co-Founder, Gordon T. Long interviewed Robert Blumen, noted follower of the Austrian School of Economics, on the Core Tenets of the Austrian School and the Key Elements for investing in an Era of Financial Repression.

CORE TENETS

1. All economic understanding must be based on individual action
2. Subjective valuation drives prices
3. Marginal utility
4. Entrepreneurship
5. Time preference as the basis of interest and profit
6. The role of capital in production
7. Savings is required to create capital
8. Price Theory:  – prices determine costs, not the other way around
9. Money as an evolutionary solution the problem of barter
10. Precious metals as an evolutionary solution to the choice of the best money
11. The purchasing power of money as a price that balances money supply and money demand
12. Non-neutrality of money  (Cantillon effects)
13. The importance of money prices
14. Money is a good, and like any good, money does not have constant purchasing power.   Stable money does not mean stable prices.
15. Mises’ “critique of intervention”:  one thing leads to another
16. The “impossibility” of socialism (central planning)
17. Macro-Economics must be founded on micro economics
18. Macro-economics is based on Say’s law.
19. The rejection of the Keynesian revolution in macro.
20. Money and money substitutes (bank deposits, bank notes).
21. Banking with 100% gold reserves
22. Fractional reserve banking.  The Austrian critique of fractional reserve banking
23. Central banking.  The Austrian critique of central banking.

24. Austrian business cycle theory – the theory of unsustainable booms drive by fractional reserve banking and central banking.

  1. Inflation is not just rising prices, it distorts production as well.
    b.    Distortions are unsustainable
    c.     The “crack up bust” as one possible ending to the unsustainable boom

25. Deflation:

  1. Deflation has been demonized by the Keynesians.
    b.    Natural slow deflation is the result of increasing production.
    c.     Deflation is the correction process from inflation.
    d.    Deflation is not a mouse trap that the economy gets stuck in and cannot escape.

26. An Austrian understanding of recessions and depressions through Say’s Law, entrepreneurship, and market price theory

 

 

KEY ELEMENTS IN AN ERA OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION

1. Entrepreneurs create wealth by employing scarce resources in production within the context of the price system.

This requires real markets with real prices.

2. Central planning can not replace market prices.

3. Central bankers have it backwards.  Counter-cyclical policies create the business cycle.

4. Interest is not a number you can set to anything you like for “policy” reasons.  It is a price and it cannot be zero.

5. Attempting to keep interest rates at zero creates unsustainable distortions in the productive part of the economy.

6. Something that is unsustainable must stop  – at some point.

7. In the end there are two choices – market prices or destruction of the monetary system

8. Investors think in terms of money, but money itself is unstable.

9. The path from fake prices to real prices will be difficult.

 

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


10/29/2015 - Michael Snyder Says: “We Are Approaching A Global Economic Collapse!”

Special Guest: Michael Snyder – Lawyer, Author, Publisher – TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com

 

FRA Co-Founder Gordon T. Long interviews Michael Snyder on financial repression He is an author and publisher of the economic collapse, blog and other blogs.

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

On financial repression Michael prefers to look at it from the angle of who is doing the repression, which in his opinion is being carried out by the governments and central banks. He believes that markets work best when free market forces are allowed to play out without interference, and that the governments and central banks are anathemas to the market.

He says the area that has witnessed the greatest distortions as a result of outside interference are the emerging markets. He goes on to explain that the period of easy money and quantitative easing flowing into the markets caused a boom in the lending of money to emerging markets all over the world. As a result of these markets gorging on all this cheap money with low interest rates, a lot of debt has been accumulated, and most of that debt is denominated in U.S dollars.

As a result of a crash in commodity prices, the emerging markets are getting less for their exports and due to the reduction in quantitative easing, the dollar is increasing in value and its taking a lot more of their currency to service and pay these debts.

Michael noted that there is no easy way out from this, He believes that the current crisis will keep on getting worse especially as global economy is slowing down.

 “I think that what we are seeing already is just going to accelerate we are going to have emerging markets really struggle and this is carrying on into global trade”. This is a global problem created by a global bubble that was created by the Federal Reserve and others and so I don’t know that there is any easy solutions and in fact, what we are seeing now is just the initial stage of a crisis that is going to get much much worse”.

He expects that initially major financial institutions all over the world will get into trouble with some of them even failing resulting in the banks refusing to lend to themselves and us thereby causing a credit crunch or freeze, which in turn will bring economic activity to a standstill and as a result cause a short severe period of deflation.

“I believe we are  going to see financial crisis financial crash more intervention which is going to cause other problems, ultimately I believe we are going to see major financial intuitions all over the world fail, I believe we are going to see a loss of faith completely and entirely this time around in the central bank of the world and governments and I believe this is going to causes economic chaos around the globe in a scale we have never seen before in our times, and I believe this is going to be a tragedy that is going to play out over  years and it’s going to fundamentally transform our standard of living and the world around us as we move forward”.

PREPARATION

On what can be done to prepare for this eventuality Michael advises that as for the short term people should evaluate financial assets that could crash in value. He also advises a 6month emergency fund at the very least. On long term protection, he recommends gold, silver and precious metals as ways people can protect their wealth. As for a longer term of protection he suggests people should have supplies of food and supplies in the event of a long term emergency, as well as having some cash at home in the event of bank holidays or shutdowns. Finally he strongly recommends a greater level of self-sufficiency from the system as he believes that it is going to fail soon.

Abstract written by Chukwuma Uwaga – chuwaga@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


10/24/2015 - John Mauldin Letter: How Savers, Retirees & Investors Are Adversely Affected By The Federal Reserve’s Financial Repression

In his latest letter, John Mauldin laments the failure of the Federal Reserve in its monetary policies: “The Fed is implicitly acknowledging again that their policy action over the past 5 years of putting the US economy on a sustainable growth path has been a failure and now if their international concerns become more pronounced, they will also admit to the world that they have no tools to deal with it. I think today’s decision was a bad one. The dollar rally should be over and I’m bullish on precious metals (again) as I don’t understand at all what the bear case is in it anymore. Other commodities should benefit too from the weak dollar.… Therefore be cautious, the Fed did more damage to its credibility today. We have a Federal Reserve that doesn’t trust its models and is running U.S. monetary policy on its understanding of a flawed academic theory.” .. goes on a tirade for what has been happening to savers, retirees & investors on the Federal Reserve’sfinancial repression:
I’m sorry to the retirees that have saved their whole lives. I’m sorry to the generation of young people that don’t know what the benefits of saving [are]. I’m sorry to the free markets that best allocate capital. I’m sorry to pension funds that can’t grow assets to match their liabilities. I’m sorry to the successful companies that are competing against those that are only still alive because of cheap credit. I’m sorry to the U.S. banking system, [which] has been hoping for higher interest rates for years. I’m sorry to those industries that have seen a pile of capital (aka, energy sector) enter their industry and have been or will see the consequences of too much capacity. I’m sorry to investors who continue to be bullied into making decisions they wouldn’t have made otherwise. I’m sorry for the bubbles that continue to be blown. Again, I’m sorry to those who don’t want to hear this.

LINK HERE to the Article

CitizenshipSolutions

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


10/24/2015 - The Age of Financial Repression

Sylvester Eijffinger presentation on The Age of Financial Repression at the Global Economic Symposium in Kiel Germany this week .. sees financial repression  when governments implement policies to channel funds to the government (to address the challenges of government debt) where those funds would flow to other assets if government policies were absent .. references the Basel III regulation for banking capital adequacy .. “Basel III regulation stipulates that banks do not have to set cash aside against their investments in government bonds with ratings of AA- or higher. If they invest in government bond of their domicile countries, there is no need for buffers, even if the rating is lower” – this is financial repression .. another form of financial repression is making sure the real interest rates are negative .. “For a long time, direct or indirect monetary financing of budget deficits ranked among the most serious and damaging offences a central bank can do. Quantitative easing and ECB’s expanded asset purchase program are just fancy new names for direct and indirect monetary financing. The fact that central banks in the West engage in monetary financing, says a lot about the real degree of their independence from their governments. Those policies in combination with Basel III regulations and the fact that all of them are of long term nature, mean that financial repression is only set to get even worse and in any case will define the economic landscape for at least a decade.”

LINK HERE to the Article

Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.


10/23/2015 - John Butler – Investing Based on the Austrian School of Economics

Special Guest: John Butler, Amphora Commodities Alpha

 

FRA Co-Founder Gordon T. Long discusses the Austrian School of Economics with John Butler and how its methodologies can be applied to the current global economy. John Butler has 18 years’ experience in the global financial industry, having worked for European and US investment banks in London, New York and Germany.

Prior to launching the Amphora Commodities Alpha Fund he was Managing Director and Head of the Index Strategies Group at Deutsche Bank in London, where he was responsible for the development and marketing of proprietary, systematic quantitative strategies for global interest rate markets. Prior to joining DB in 2007, John was Managing Director and Head of European Interest Rate Strategy at Lehman Brothers in London, where he and his team were voted #1 in the Institutional Investor research survey. In addition to other research, he publishes the Amphora Report newsletter which appears on several major financial websites

THE AUSTRIAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

“It is the no free lunch school of economics.”

The Austrian school believes that economics systems are ultimately information systems. Some of those systems use information more efficiently and effectively than others, and in particular systems of which authorities of various kinds meddle with the market. Authorities may do this by extracting capital from the market via tax rates or even by manipulating the money of that market through some sort of artificial interest rate policy.

“From the Austrian schools point of view, anything that impedes the free price information flow of an economic system will result in a sub optimal economic outcome.”

Without the rule of law, without the ability to strongly enforce property rights, without the ability to prosecute fraud, and various other legal frameworks; the Austrian economic model cannot work.

“Our goal is to make sure economic information flows as efficiently as possible within a solid legal structure.”

HOW THE AUSTRIAN SCHOOL CAN BE APPLIED IN INVESTING

Austrianism teaches us that the future is unpredictable. The economy is made up of the billions of people in the world, with each person making transactions almost every day. Each decision is an individual’s choice, and each decision, even the decision not to spend your money has some effect on the economy.

“Austrian school provides you a way to identify distortions, a powerful way that is caused by a fiscal and monetary policy set such as interest rate or fiscal policy manipulation. Austrians are able to look at these policies and be able to see how they are impacting the investment environment. This gives you a sense of where the distortions are. In theory you get an idea of where you should be overweight and underweight from an investor’s point of view.”

CURRENT EVENTS AMPHORA IS FOCUSED ON

“Currently we are seeing a general overvaluation of risky assets that has been caused by truly an unprecedented set of highly expansionary monetary and fiscal policies throughout most of the world.”

Income growth has not kept up; assets are expensive relative to incomes. So the correct strategy is not simply to short assets, which is dangerous; but if indeed they do look for ways to stimulate aggregate demand more directly rather than through the banking system.

The correct strategies to have today are those that will perform if incomes begin to catch up to asset prices, it could be asset prices declining towards incomes or vice versa. It is impossible to know which one is going to happen, but it is highly likely looking forward that a conversion of the two will happen.

POSSIBILITY OF NEGATIVE NOMINAL INTEREST RATES

“Policy makers have become almost pathological; they have a relentless attitude to make their policies work.”

“Problem with this is, once you get to this point, you can no longer question your original set of assumption. Austrian school of economics knows that the original sets of Keynesian assumptions that have gone into forming this unconventional and aggressive policy mix are themselves flawed. We are on this course where if it were left to run itself, policy makers will operation in these counter-productive directions because they will not question whether their assumptions are wrong.”

“Banning cash will prevent people from making even the simplest transaction in their own neighborhoods; it will lead to complete riot and chaos.”

“Putting a ban on cash is a terrible idea. It is terrible for them and for the economy as a whole. Sadly, with the way things are going, policy makers are going to teach everyone a very hard lesson about blindly accept anything the bureaucracy tells you to do.

CENTRAL BANKS ROLE IF ASSET CORRECTION OCCURRED

“If you do get a major correction in asset markets that causes collateral problems in financial markets, the policy makers are out of options. The only thing they could do is begin capital controls”

Prevent investors being able to freely liquidate or withdraw funds from their existing investments. This of course is very anti-capitalist, very inti-market. It goes directly against everything that a free enterprise economy should stand for; but when you follow these policies you will eventually get to a dead end.

Abstract written by Karan Singh karan1.singh@ryerson.ca

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Disclaimer: The views or opinions expressed in this blog post may or may not be representative of the views or opinions of the Financial Repression Authority.