04/27/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Mmm… ¿en qué andará Warren Buffett?
“Lejos de la imagen de “bondadoso abuelo capitalista”, Warren Buffet logró gran parte de su fortuna denostando al libre mercado; de hecho, entre sus “brillantes negocios”, financió un referendo para que el Gobierno sostenga el monopolio eléctrico de su empresa NV Energy, en Nevada, contra la liberalización que, dada la competencia, abarataría las tarifas.”
04/23/2020 - The Roundtable Insight – Daniel Lacalle and Yra Harris on the Implications of the Virus on the Economy and Markets
04/20/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Optimismo global y el “pagadiós” argentino “Entre otras “esperanzas”, el Gobierno apostaba a que la depresión global lograra que los acreedores se conformaran con mucho menos, pero, en todo caso, fallaron en el timing, porque vuelve el optimismo, aunque, en mi opinión, es algo apresurado. Si bien el virus parece que va camino de controlarse, no está claro que los gobiernos levantarán tan fácilmente las restricciones que destruyen a la economía. Mientras que los “Treasuries” tienen un rendimiento de hasta 1.265% anual (el de 30 años) y son considerados muy seguros, Wall Street no ha parado de subir.”
04/19/2020 - Charles Hugh Smith: The Shift to a Decentralized Economy
“This shift to decentralized, networked remote work will have a devastating impact on the commercial office sector. A very large percentage of the already-excessive supply of office space will be surplus, and it won’t be cheap or easy to transform offices into residential living spaces.”
04/15/2020 - Sitka Capital on the Implications of the Virus and Central Bank Actions
“It is difficult to understate what this means for the value of the dollar over the coming decade. The period of “strong inflation” during the 1940s and 1950s, highlighted in the chart above, occurred while monetary policy was effectively taken over by the U.S. Treasury during another national emergency, and what we saw over the past month as the Fed put out fires in the bond market and coordinated with the Treasury to create special purpose vehicles and various lending programs was reminiscent of the earliest steps taken in that direction in the 1930s.”
04/14/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Wall Street, Argentina hacia la híper y … Muchos inversores apuestan a que unas cuantas empresas irán a la quiebra y, entonces, las que sobrevivan aumentarán su participación. Y para eso es muy importante la solvencia, ya que nadie sabe durante cuánto tiempo las economías globales permanecerán reprimidas por los Estados, la verdadera causa de la crisis y no el coronavirus propiamente.
04/13/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Exagerado optimismo, la plata y el bitcoin?
04/09/2020 - Guy Haselmann: The Dawning of a New Future
“The Coronavirus exposed many vulnerabilities. Going forward, governments and businesses will rethink the means of production and global trade. The choice will be less about economic efficiencies and more about resilience. National and geopolitical imperatives will dominate economic imperatives.”
04/06/2020 - Satyajit Das: If the Virus Hadn’t Caused the Crash, Something Else Would Have
The pandemic has exposed the vulnerabilities of a structurally unsound financial and economic system.
04/06/2020 - Anthony Crudele and Yra Harris on the Currency, Bond and Commodity Markets
1. Why the U.S. Dollar is Yra’s Primary Focus
2. Reasons he’s Bullish Gold
3. Trading Treasuries & Yield Curves
4. Oats & Wheat
5. Crude Oil & Russia
04/06/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Bolsas -robo advisors- y bitcoin: ¿llega la recuperación? “La economía global caerá 1,9% en 2020, según Fitch Ratings, en medio de la paralización global decidida entre muchos gobiernos. La recuperación de China se ralentizará por el bajón del resto. El PBI de EE.UU. caería 3,3%, el de la zona euro 4,2% y el de Gran Bretaña 3,9%.”
04/01/2020 - The Roundtable Insight: Charles Hugh Smith on the Social, Financial and Economic Implications of the Coronavirus!
04/01/2020 - The Roundtable Insight: John Charalambakis and Yra Harris on the Virus, Economy and Investing
03/31/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – El dólar después de coronacrash “Es difícil proyectar en medio de la sorpresa del coronavirus. Pero hay que intentarlo para darle algo de racionalidad a esta película de alta ciencia ficción que han desencadenado los gobiernos.”
03/24/2020 - Yra Harris: My Fantasy News, “China Swaps U.S. Treasuries For Fort Knox”
“The issue for global finance has been and will be DEBT, DEBT, DEBT, aided by the policies of lower for longer interest rates by the Bernanke, Yellen, Kuroda, and for eight horrendous years, Mario Draghi. The tide is going out and it seems that everyone has been floating naked on a tsunami of cheap funds.”
03/24/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – La peste que faltaba, el “dinero helicóptero” “A ver. En el apuro muchos hablan de “la crisis económica del coronavirus” cuando este infecta a humanos, pero no realiza transacción alguna, de modo que sólo es causante de la crisis sanitaria. La económica, que probablemente sea la peor de la historia moderna, incluso peor que la que comenzó con la caída de Wall Street el 29 de octubre de 1929, se debe exclusivamente a las medidas adoptadas por los gobiernos y al pánico creado.”
03/16/2020 - Yra Harris: Demand Shock and Debt Overhang Risks
“The economic machine is being forced to slow to a crawl but the overhang of debt remains. This is the issue of the DEMAND SHOCK we have spent so much time discussing on this blog. If this situation continues for a few months how fast do you think unemployment rises to 5.5% or even higher? The effort to limit the pain by fiscal solutions will prove a very valuable tool but for how long can the government go without any revenue stream before FOREIGN LENDERS turn off the spigot?”
03/16/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Coronavirus: después puede venir lo peor “¿Realmente el coronavirus es tan serio? El especialista Pablo Goldsmith, por caso, dice que no. Como referencia, recordemos que la epidemia por el virus H1N1, otra neumonía viral, provocó en Argentina 685 muertes en 5 meses. No se tomaron medidas excepcionales, cierres de aeropuertos, restricciones a la movilidad individual, cancelación de actividades públicas, y mucho menos la abolición de las garantías constitucionales.”
‘”Is the coronavirus really that serious? Specialist Pablo Goldsmith, for example, says no. As a reference, let us remember that the H1N1 epidemic, another viral pneumonia, caused 685 deaths in Argentina in 5 months. No action was taken. exceptional, airport closings, restrictions on individual mobility, cancellation of public activities, much less the abolition of constitutional guarantees. ”
03/10/2020 - Spanish: Alejandro Tagliavini – Con la excusa del coronavirus, los Estados destruyen mercados y el rebote que vendrá “Algún día entenderemos que la violencia solo destruye a la naturaleza que de suyo provee los recursos para una vida digna para todos. Entretanto seguiremos autoflagelándonos, creando pobreza y desorden.”
03/09/2020 - Guy Haselmann on the Coronavirus – the Catalyst for System Failure? “Today’s global economic system is more intertwined than at any point in history. For the past 30 years in particular, globalization and the Theory of Comparative Advantage have been alive and well. Technological advancements and transportation improvements have truly ‘shrunk the world’, allowing more countries to participate and benefit from international trade.
The globalized world economy has become a vast network of complex supply chains, interconnectedness and co-dependence. The benefits have been wide-spread and done more to lift the human condition, and more people out of poverty, than any development in history. However, this increase in economic complexity has magnified global vulnerabilities, opening up the risk of rapid and large-scale failure and contagion: a period of anti-globalization. COVID-19 is the catalyst that is triggering a supply-side crisis; one that is further exacerbated by a simultaneous demand-side shock.”
The Financial Repression Authority (FRA) educates investors, funds and retirees on the adverse risks resulting from good-intentioned macroprudential central bank policies, government fiscal policies and financial regulations focused on controlling excessive government debt, attempting to stimulate economic growth, and minimizing the potential for financial and economic crises. FRA provides consulting services, lead generation services and retirement solutions.
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