Blog
08/26/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Charles Hugh Smith on Secular Inflation
08/24/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – The dollar strengthens
” Uncertainties are growing again in financial markets because, predictably, politicians are not willing to disarm the power they won – state controls and restrictions – with the excuse of the “pandemic” and, therefore, the global economic recovery slows.”
08/16/2021 - Yra Harris Latest Thoughts
“Hoping you have a great week but wish to remind traders that after last Sunday night’s meltdown in the GOLD and SILVER, the GOLD CLOSED HIGHER ON THE WEEK, even as the FED‘s language grew more hawkish in terms of beginning QE tapering. The U.S. DOLLAR also failed to rally after the initial GOLD bashing, the dollar index closing lower on week. The hawkish rhetoric failed to provide lift to traditional vehicles of positive dollar asset classes.
This is just something to watch even as global sovereign BOND markets remained in nominal real territory: German Bunds -0.46%; French Oats -0.13%; Netherlands -0.34%; Greek 0.55%; and Italy 0.54%.
Of course the BOJ, RNBZ, RBA and BOE all have interest rates on overnight money near zero. This is the predicament for the FED in being the the first to remove liquidity. Interest rates are low everywhere and the BOJ and ECB have openly stated their reticence to begin pulling back asset purchases. This is the global financial system with which we go back to beach. Will the SRF allow the FED to reduce QE without leading to a DOLLAR RALLY? Only time will tell.”
08/12/2021 - The Roundtable Insight: Tian Yang and Yra Harris on the Financial Markets and Commodities
08/11/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Russell Napier and Yra Harris on Financial Repression and the Age of Debt
08/09/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Wall Street camino de nuevos máximos?
” Cuenta Ezequiel Burgo que la inversión extranjera directa en Argentina registra los niveles más bajos desde la crisis de 2001. Según el BCRA, hasta junio de 2021 ingresaron US$ 748 M al país durante los últimos doce meses en concepto de ‘inversión directa de no residentes’. Una cifra francamente irrisoria y que, obviamente, se debe a casos muy puntuales y de mantenimiento de emprendimientos ya existentes mostrando que en el fondo hay desinversión en Argentina.”
08/09/2021 - Yra Harris: Bye Bye, Jerome Powell
“The noose tightens for a strong DOLLAR will create havoc on so many of the world’s most vulnerable economies. When does not fault of their own splash across the OCEANS? Those espousing an end to the global reflation trade due to FED policy pivoting be very cautious. All those in favor of a strong dollar raise your hands, otherwise keep the MUSIC PLAYING AND THE WALL STREET CROWD KEEP DANCING. Hey Joe, you may wish to change partners.”
08/06/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on Inflation and Impacts to the Economy, Equities and Commodities
45 min Podcast – Link Here
08/04/2021 - FRA The Roundtable Insight – Upcoming TV Radio Miami Podcast (in Spanish)
08/04/2021 - FRA The Roundtable Insight Podcast Live on TV Radio Miami (in Spanish)
08/03/2021 - Yra Harris: The Fed As G-30 Proxy?
“The problem remains that the FED bent to the consultations of this illustrious non-elected group with potential for great financial impact. It further confirmed my hypothesis that the FED cannot lead the move to end QE but must be a laggard or suffer the consequences of an overly strong DOLLAR.”
07/27/2021 - Dr. Albert Friedberg on Inflation
“If inflation keeps accelerating beyond their 2.5% per annum expectation, which in our view is guaranteed, increases of 1/4% in Fed funds will be implemented on a quarterly basis. Then monthly. There is a long way to go, and a long time necessary, to reach a funds rate of just 2.5%, the last peak (2019). And, dear reader, that won’t cut it when inflation is running 500 to 800 basis points higher. It’s useless for us to speculate any further. It will be a long time, measured in years, before the Fed regains control of prices. During this long period of time, inflation will rage and consumer purchasing power will shrink as wages struggle to keep up with prices. Economic activity will be severely affected by this loss of purchasing power, and slowdowns and recessions will follow. Corporate margins will shrink. Price controls, always useless and counterproductive, will almost certainly reappear on the scene. The evils of social inequality will be compounded, and social unrest will follow… There are very few places to which we will be able to escape and find safety in the coming financial and economic disaster. But recognizing the problem is the first step and we believe that we have recognized it.”
Link Here to the Quarterly Report
07/27/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – ¿El que apuesta al blue pierde?
” Como venimos anticipando, por ejemplo, en la nota “La economía argentina en situación muy complicada”, la inflación global está tomando un vuelo muy importante (y, por cierto, hay un gran negocio dentro de esto, ya que implica billones de dólares emitidos y regalados a los amigos del poder, que explica buena parte de la “pandemia”).”
07/26/2021 - Yra Harris: Trade Complications (The Power of the Nation-State)
“IF THE FED IS THE FIRST MOVER OF THE MAJOR TO RAISE RATES AND CUT QE THEN THE DOLLAR WILL RISE BECAUSE OF THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GLOBAL DOLLAR-DENOMINATED DEBT. A rise in the DOLLAR would lead to declining profits for U.S. multinational corporations, as well as emerging markets having to raise capital thus initiating a global liquidation of various assets. This would naturally mean a correction in equity markets. I guess we’ll see this week as we get another FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.”
07/23/2021 - Yra Harris: What A Week (Or Was It a Month)
“This is it. They can’t raise rates too soon because there’s too much debt, which has been supported by massive asset purchases instituted by all the world’s major central banks.”
07/22/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Judd Hirschberg analyzes the Financial Markets
07/20/2021 - Russell Napier – We are entering a Time of Financial Repression
“The foundations for where we are today were laid in 1998. The book explains where our current predicament came from and how the financial repression we now live with is a fusion of the two forms of capitalism, social capitalism and financial capitalism, that did battle in Asia in 1997 and 1998.”
07/20/2021 - Yra Harris: Are You Ready When Delta Is?
“While traders are certainly cautious there is NO PANIC. The primary difference from 16 months ago is of course the FED having moved to the ZERO BOUND so yields are just too low at this juncture to attract those in search of a haven at any price. The critical question remains: IF THE ONSET OF THE DELTA VARIANT INCREASES GEOMETRICALLY, WHAT WILL BE THE RESPONSE OF THE MONETARY AND FISCAL AUTHORITIES? WHAT TOOLS REMAIN IN THE BOX? THESE ARE THE CRITICAL ISSUES CONFRONTING ALL INVESTORS WITH U.S. RATES AT ZERO.”
07/14/2021 - The Roundtable Insight – Peter Boockvar and Yra Harris on the Financial Markets
07/13/2021 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Grains and food, the inflation paradox
” ironically, as bulk food prices fall, many experts, such as Michael Snyder, recommend hoarding food from supermarkets: “For decades, Americans have not had to worry about food prices… Our supermarkets have always been full, and prices would always be roughly the same. Unfortunately, things are changing…”.”
