“Financial instability is going to force the Fed out of its proposed policy path. There is so much risk showing up in things like credit default swaps on European banks or emerging market bonds. Our 21 Lehman systemic risk indicators globally are the highest since the financial crisis, a lot of these risk metrics blew through Covid levels which is really bad. That means the Fed is not going to be able to complete the job on inflation which gets you to inflation sticking around at something like 3 to 6%.”