“The massive DOLLAR debt overhang needs a weaker U.S. currency to provide relief for sovereign or corporate borrowers that need of money to meet debt payments. The FED will not speak about the DOLLAR but a weaker dollar would be a needed tool to assist its drive for ever higher inflation. The flip side is that those warning about a TOO STRONG EURO miss an importance NUANCE. A stronger EURO reflects the idea that Europe and President Lagarde may be embarking on the correct policies.
Currencies are not always about ATTAINING A TRADE ADVANTAGE. At times the financing implications for the role of the RESERVE CURRENCY outweigh any lagging effects of trade. Do your technical work to see where the battle of DOLLAR BULLS AND BEARS is going to be fought.
The continued rally in the precious metals points to the FED‘s need for a weaker currency. If the DOLLAR were to rally I believe the central bank would move to enact YIELD CURVE CONTROL (YCC), something Chairman Jerome Powell seems reluctant to even mention since his Jackson Hole speech in August.”