04/28/2017 - David Rosenberg: The Bond Market Is Reacting To The Facts On The Ground
The stock market is at a critical juncture, and it may be time reduce risk, strategist David Rosenberg says .. He predicts economic growth will slow even more as the Federal Reserve resumes its tightening policy.
“The reckoning will be which market has the story right: Is it the stock market that is de facto pricing in double-digit earnings growth or is it the Treasury market with the 10-year yield at 2.3 percent? .. The bond market is really pricing in a completely different nominal GDP growth world .. The bond market is actually reacting to the facts on the ground. The facts on the ground are this: Year-over-year growth on a nominal GDP cycle already peaked at 4.9 percent. We have never before in the post-World War II period ever have seen year over year nominal GDP growth peak below 5 percent. That happened two years ago.”
