12/18/2015 - Bill Laggner: Corporate & Sovereign Bond Defaults To Send Shock Waves Into The Currency Markets
Bill Laggner is the Principal and Co-Founder of Bearing Asset management in Dallas, TX. Mr. Laggner and his partner manage the Bearing fund using an Austrian School of Economics lens in terms of identifying boom-bust cycles, value in the market place, bubbles, and distortions created by both fiscal and monetary authorities.
“We started back in 2002, creating the Bearing credit index when we say that authorities would not let the recession play out”
On describing the Austrian School of Economics, Bill says that Austrian economists would categorize their theory as human action and individual decision making and their responsibilities of those decisions being what really creates normal economic activity. He points out how unfortunate it is that today we have fiscal and monetary intervention which distort human actions.
“We create these boom-bust cycles that are magnified by the very interventions that we’re witnessing today”
SAVINGS & PROPER ALLOCATION OF THOSE SAVINGS
Bill thinks that one of the key aspects of the Austrian economic theory that investors should pay attention to is that one has to have savings and a proper allocation of those savings. He also says that people have to quantify both risks and return as well.
“In that environment as well, you would want interest rates to be set by the market place and not a group of bureaucrats who are essentially socializing credit”
On whether we have an inflation or deflation right now: There is a lot of discussion about inflation in the Austrian theory in terms of the phenomena comes about in terms of pricing, in light of that we have deflation in commodity prices which was a function of the excess supply created by false signals coming out of China. According to Bill we are facing a deflationary state as of right now.
Bill thinks China and Glencore are the canaries in the coalmine when it comes to credit cycles in the commodity market.
CREDIT CYCLE HAS TURNED
Gord states that the credit cycle is now changing, taking its signals from the business cycle. Bill agrees with Gord, saying:
“We’re at the end of the credit cycle, the whole mal-investment in shale oil…tens of billions of dollars in lost wealth”
For the future, Bill anticipates a massive series of defaults, resulting from huge deflationary pressures and a tightening by the market place, which is basically an unintended result of constant intervention. We are looking at corporate bond defaults, sovereign defaults which will send shockwaves into the currency system.
“We’re probably looking at some kind of new currency system, which looks likely to be gold”
At Bearing Asset Management: They run an aggressive, long-short portfolio.
Bill points out even in the turmoil we’re in he remains optimistic. He thinks that technology will be the savior as the wheels are coming out from the bus, looking at how the internet connects people all over the whole who do business daily.
“We’re coming to a realization that we can look to each other and share expertise, knowledge, goods and shy away from things like speculating in commodities, speculating in real estate, speculating in the stock market and get back to pricing money correctly.”
“The beauty of America is that the entrepreneurial DNA in this country is unlike any other part of the world.”
Gord mentions that if we could take away centralized control and planning from the planners and controllers in a logical fashion, adjustment will happen. He says that “a crisis is nothing but more than change trying to happen.”
If people want to get more information and insight from Mr. Bill Laggner, they can go to bearingasset.com/blog. They write a lot about relevant topics relating to wealth and the financial markets.
