12/29/2014 - How Central Banks Unknowingly Create Their Achilles Heel: Deflation

‘EXCESS’ INFLATION: Inflation creation when the business cycle needs to contract.(ie 2% targets during systemic deleveraging.)

  • This is because the Prime Directive of central banks is to make it ever easier to service yesterday’s debt.
  • Excessive inflation results from central banks being forced to push negative real interest rates too low (to protect debt holders) relative to real economic expansion and capital wealth creation.

DEFLATION:

“Any increase in the purchasing power of nominal wages”.

  • The rise of software, robotics and global wage arbitrage is resulting in wages not rising along with prices. As a result, everyone who depends on earned income is getting poorer.
  • For the actual real-world the result of central banks easing, money pumping and zero interest rates is Deflation.
  • Central bank easing and zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) fuel over-capacity which leads to declining prices: deflation with a capital D.
  • Central bank easing and zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) additionally fuels malinvestment which leads to over valued collateral and an eventual collateral collapse as NPL (non-performing loans) debt cannot to “rolled” (ie no one no longer wants to risk financing)

EASY CREDIT CREATES EXCESS SUPPLY & DEMAND WHICH EVENTUALLY REACH EQUILIBRIUM

  1. BROUGHT FORWARD DEMAND THEN LEAVES A DEMAND RATE VACUUM
  2. INFLATION REDUCES REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME WHICH FURTHER REDUCES DEMAND

SHRINKING AGGREGATE DEMAND THEN REDUCES COMMODITY PRICES WHICH LEADS TO COLLAPSING COLLATERAL VALUES

12-29-14-TEST

THE OIL SHOCK IS YOUR FIRST SIGN!

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