Blog
11/27/2022 - Daniel Lacalle – COLLAPSE. EUROPE ENERGY CRISIS GETS WORSE
11/21/2022 - Yra Harris – Recapping the Last Two Weeks
“As I have warned, the world needs to be cognizant of the fallout from the Swiss National Bank pulling the PEG on the EUR/CHF back in January 2015, which wreaked havoc on Eastern European citizens with massive Swiss franc liabilities because of the FED and ultra-low interest rates. Since global central banks have been flooding the financial system with liquidity, we are in a new era that cannot be modeled. So it’s interesting that the talk continues of inflation waning but rates still react more to FED jawboning. The US 2/10 yield curve closed at its most inverted level in 40 years, even as the DOLLAR has corrected about 5% from its recent highs.
This is something to watch as the FED continues talking asset prices lower, especially the EQUITY markets. Yet stocks continue to defy Bullard/Kashkari. IF I RAN THE FED, RATE HIKES WOULD STOP AT 4% WHILE DOUBLING THE SIZE OF QT (removing $180 billion a month). The POWELL FED is on the verge of making the same mistake it made in 2018 with what Stanley Druckenmiller called the double-shotgun approach. The inverted curves are telling you Jerome: It’s time to rein in excess liquidity in an effort to bring prices down to the level of fed funds. Market signals are a valuable tool if the policy makers would heed them.”
11/20/2022 - Goodbye G20, hello BRICS+
“It is safe to say that the G20 may have plunged into an irretrievable path toward irrelevancy. Even before the current Southeast Asian summit wave – in Phnom Penh, Bali and Bangkok – Lavrov had already signaled what comes next when he noted that “over a dozen countries” have applied to join BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).
Iran, Argentina, and Algeria have formally applied: Iran, alongside Russia, India, and China, is already part of the Eurasian Quad that really matters.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Afghanistan are extremely interested in becoming members. Indonesia just applied, in Bali. And then there’s the next wave: Kazakhstan, UAE, Thailand (possibly applying this weekend in Bangkok), Nigeria, Senegal, and Nicaragua.”
11/18/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Martin Armstrong on the Economy and the Geo-political Trends
11/17/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Eric Peters and Yra Harris on the Economy, Financial Markets and Cryptos/Blockchain
11/15/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Victor Adair and Yra Harris on Trading the Financial Markets, Potential Opportunities
11/07/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Brent Johnson and Yra Harris on the USD, Triffin’s Dilemma, and Financial Repression
11/04/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – David Rosenberg, Peter Boockvar and Yra Harris on the Economy and the Financial Markets
Link to find more info on Peter’s work – https://boockreport.com/
Link to find more info on David’s work – https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/
For a Free 30-day trial to Rosenberg Research click here: https://bit.ly/34crdIK
From Rosenberg Research: “We strive to be investors’ first and most trusted resource for economic research and financial market strategy. President and Chief Economist & Strategist, David Rosenberg, brings decades of experience in analyzing current trends and identifying future shifts in the global economy and financial markets, with an unwavering commitment towards helping his clients navigate their portfolios in an ever-changing, uncertain world. At Rosenberg Research, we provide the information, insights and strategy to enhance your investment decisions, backed by our team’s macroeconomic research capabilities and David’s unique market lens.”
Link to Yra’s blog – https://yragharris.com/
11/01/2022 - Caroline Miller – «We Recommend that Investors Start to Re-Risk»
“Typically, a very strong dollar is catastrophic for emerging markets. And yet, we have seen periods this year where emerging markets have outperformed US equities. That is because EM currencies, particularly in Latam, are already cheap. Moreover, sovereign dollar-denominated credit spreads in the emerging markets universe typically widen with a strong dollar but they have narrowed in a few markets this year. Again, this is evidence that the monetary tightening cycle is very advanced in emerging markets which is attractive from a real yield perspective. Interestingly, Latin America with its commodity export strength has gotten very little credit this year. Earnings in the region have been stronger than in Asia and yet the relative forward multiple has favored the Asian markets. In a nutshell, we prefer Latin America over Asia within Emerging Markets and have a preference for EM over EAFE at the moment.”
10/31/2022 - The Fed Guy – Quantitative Buybacks
“A Treasury Secretary exercising the power of QE would mark a departure in how monetary policy is conducted. Monetary policy has always been in part determined by actions of the Treasury, who influences the shape of the yield curve by deciding the national debt’s maturity profile. However, a sizable buyback program would be a much more overt foray into monetary policy. It would functionally ease financial conditions at a time when the Fed struggling to contain inflation. The concern over Treasury market fragility is legitimate, but so is the perception of monetary policy independence. The option to goose the stock market at will may also be very tempting.”
10/26/2022 - Economist Nouriel Roubini on the Economy and the USD
10/26/2022 - Yra Harris – Hu’s Out First, Li’s Out Second, and Xi, I don’t Know
“In addition to Yellen, Barry Eichengren, the most renowned economist on the DOLLAR since Robert Aliber, had a Foreign Affairs article warning of the “Dangers of a Strong Dollar,” suggesting that central banks “diversify their reserves and for countries to diversify their transactions away from the DOLLAR and towards the currencies of the eurozone, China and smaller economies. Doing so would leave countries less exposed to one bank.” Dollar debt sustainability is a great problem, something the FED/TREASURY needs to be very aware of as it will create the greatest financial breakage.”
10/24/2022 - The Possibility of Saudi Arabia Joining the BRICS Shows the World Is Moving on From Western Dominance
“Participation in BRICS becomes a sign of belonging to a world that is emerging beyond established Western dominance.”
10/24/2022 - Eric Peters – “There Is Too Much Debt In The World, So They Must Inflate It Away”
“There is too much debt in the world, so they must inflate it away, which they can do. They will. That’s the only thing you need to know.”
10/21/2022 - Yra Harris – Returning to the Turmoil
“The strong dollar creates even more tension for the Europeans as it forces the ECB to tighten rates even as cracks appear in the EU edifice .. Couple this with the ongoing weakening YEN and, which could potentially cause Europe and other nations even more pain.”
10/19/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Julian Brigden and Yra Harris on the Economy and the Financial Markets
10/18/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Doomberg and Yra Harris on the Energy Markets, the Economy and Financial Risks
10/17/2022 - Gerard Minack – Rate Hikes and Equity Markets Outlook
“Equity markets typically rally after the final hike in a Fed tightening cycle (Exhibit 7). I don’t think we are close to that final hike, but I concede a tactical rally is likely at the time. These rallies are driven partly by the fact that on average the first cut in a rate cycle comes 4 months after the final hike in the prior cycle.”
10/14/2022 - Russell Napier – «We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale»
“First of all: avoid government bonds. Investors in government debt are the ones who will be robbed slowly. Within equities, there are sectors that will do very well. The great problems we have – energy, climate change, defence, inequality, our dependence on production from China – will all be solved by massive investment. This capex boom could last for a long time. Companies that are geared to this renaissance of capital spending will do well. Gold will do well once people realise that inflation won’t come down to pre-2020 levels but will settle between 4 and 6%. The disappointing performance of gold this year is somewhat clouded by the strong dollar. In yen, euro or sterling, gold has done pretty well already.”
10/11/2022 - Michael Shellenberger: The Renewable Energy Paradox
Michael Shellenberger, founder of Environmental Progress, said one of the “most misleading ways that renewable salespeople sell their technology” is they claim the electricity produced by wind and solar is cheaper.
