04/11/2022 - Yra Harris: Time to Escalate and Deescalate the Fed and Putin?
“The FED has a potential problem in how to unload its stockpile of mortgage-backed securities without breaking the robust residential real estate market as rates are speeding toward 5%. When the FED sells $35 billion of MBS a month how much higher will MORTGAGES rise as buyers wait to receive even higher yields. (Or, as Chris Whalen suggests, a potential MBS buyer strike.) My point with the FED and why I come to bury Powell and not praise him is that the central bank kept increasing reserves even as the negative economic effects of the COVID pandemic were proven to be contained. The massive fiscal stimulus from Trump and Biden administrations should have constrained the monetary stimulus that has created enormous losses for BOND BUYERS during those 24 months. As Jerome Powell would says, through NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN.”
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04/07/2022 - The Roundtable Insight – Kushal Thaker and Peter Boockvar on the Economy and the Financial Markets
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04/05/2022 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Dólares, “agrodólares”, hambre y “staking”
“Cuenta Invecq que, entre los meses de enero y marzo, el complejo cerealero y oleaginoso ingresó al país el récord de más de USD 7.900 M. En promedio, entre los años 2010-2020 para el mismo período, la liquidación de exportaciones sumaba unos USD 4.400 M. De modo que el 2022 arranca con un ingreso de divisas del agro de un 80% superior al promedio de la última década, y después de un 2021 que ya había sido récord. Es decir, que el sector crece sostenidamente va camino de un máximo en este año, superando los USD 32.800 M del año pasado.”
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04/04/2022 - Yra Harris: Are Central Banks the Grand Illusion?
“Central bank interest rate policies are not one-dimensional and may be BEGGAR THY NEIGHBOR as well. While the SNB breaks no G-7 strictures (since it’s not a member), its regarded status makes its decisions critical for the underpinnings of an equitable global financial system. Oh well, Larry Fink proclaimed the end of GLOBALIZATION so everyone for themselves?”
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03/28/2022 - Yra Harris – Is Globalization Dead?
“It has been the benefit of global capital chasing billions of low paid workers that have worked to keep pressure on wages throughout the developed world. If Russia’s invasion and NATO‘s response leads to the to a suppression of global capital flows then interest rates, and especially EQUITY MARKETS, are in for some periods of great volatility. It has been the combination of “cheap” capital coupled with low-wage labor that has driven up equity values around the world. In 2013, Thomas Piketty captured this in his simplistic equation: R>G, meaning that return was greater than growth.
If Posen, Marks and Fink are correct the coming years will experience a dramatic repricing of P/E ratios as global capital loses it mojo. While there’s some glory in the use of sanctions, I advise holding off on popping the champagne corks. When will capital feel the pain of lower returns and higher interest rates? I have timetable but it is something to be concerned about. It certainly makes the FED‘s task of a neutral interest rate very difficult, especially as it also attempts to SHRINK its balance sheet in an effort to deleverage the financial system. Globalization has been great for equity capital, but I wonder if Daleep Singh has factored this into his sanctions formula. The world as seen from NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND rests on the premise that 2+2=5. Any answers for there certainly are a plethora of questions.”
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03/12/2022 - Implications on Inflation and Commodities from the Geo-Political Events
“Russia is a major supplier of the most wanted raw materials including: palladium, 46% of global production, platinum 15% of global protection as well as gold, oil, natural gas, coal, nickel, aluminum, copper and silver, as well as wheat.”
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03/09/2022 - Cryptocurrencies (and the metaverse) a universe for peace
” In other words, cryptocurrencies -with all the instability typical of a new and still incipient world- are increasingly presented as an alternative to peace, that is, to evade sanctions and violent actions by governments that can do little to control them. , they can eventually control the people who use them, but not the cryptocurrencies themselves.”
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03/07/2022 - Yra Harris: A Quick Hit On the State of Chaos
“The best things going right now for the global financial system are the FED‘s dollar swap lines to many banks and the Foreign International and Monetary Authorities Repo Facility, which the G-30 pushed Chair Jerome Powell to make permanent. This provides generous backstop for foreign institutions, which is important because something is definitely ROTTEN in DEMARK, FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY, et al. What it is I don’t know but at this point, watch the European system. All acts of war and the sanctions will deliver unintended consequences. Be patient and let the false headlines be played by those relying on the newest expert to fill the airwaves. And also, let’s see where the FED goes in response to political systemic risk.
We’re only just beginning to evaluate and assess but the longer this goes on the more damage will be done as FOOD becomes scarce as countries are forced to protect their populations and four million barrels of Russian OIL go searching for buyers. Upon listening to the Chair of the House Agricultural Committee David Scott at Powell’s testimony last week I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Biden White House move to limit U.S. ag exports if prices continue to push higher and worries of scarcity arise. The optics of headline inflation are harming the Dems’ chances in November. As always in politics, OPTICS provide an incentive when policy is failing.”
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02/23/2022 - Alejandro Tagliavini – NFTs or the real (and good) new normal
“Over the past week and early this week, Bitcoin (BTC) saw unstable pendulum swings, moving in a range and closing in a downtrend just like most altcoins. Factors such as geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, rising global inflation, speculation on interest rates and its supposed correlation with the US stock market are affecting its price.”
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02/17/2022 - Yra Harris: Is It George Bailey or Henry Potter?
“As noted in the latest podcast with Dr. Faber, QT would be the area in which the FED WOULD DISCOVER HOW MUCH LEVERAGED EXISTED ACROSS MYRIAD ASSETS RAISING THE IDEA OF SYSTEMIC RISK AS THE OVERLEVERAGED BEGAN RAISING CASH. The FED has created a very difficult situation for itself as it confronts the global problem of inflation.”
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02/09/2022 - The Great Reset from the Perspective of the Austrian School of Economics
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02/09/2022 - Alejandro Tagliavini – Times of uncertainties and critical global shortages
“The markets are experiencing weeks of high volatility and most analysts highlight the «confusion» shown by many investors in relation to the future macroeconomic scenario. To begin with, because of the fact that all the restrictions “due to the pandemic” have not been lifted, the global economies, after the rebound in 2021, are still weak.”
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02/04/2022 - Yra Harris: The Soft Bias of Low Expectations
“It seems the Hawkish outlook stems from a leak out of the ECB Governing Group that the meeting had experienced dissonance about the slow pace of changing monetary policy. If Lagarde is suffering the slings and errors of the hard money members look for the GOLD to gain against all fiat currencies for the issue going forward will be CENTRAL BANK CREDIBILITY. Sorry, ZERO RATES at the time of 5% headline inflation is just not monetary stridency.”
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02/02/2022 - Yra Harris: Bernard Connolly Is Worth a Good Whiskey
“The FED can raise rates in a slow process but to me the key to unlocking the speculation of myriad assets is found in quantitative tightening or shrinking the balance sheet. Chairman Jerome Powell pushed off the day of embarking upon QT but many FED presidents are raising the issue: Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic last week raised the prospect of the central bank starting its balance sheet unwind — a QT program of $100 billion a month — by around JUNE. If the FED begins that program the unraveling of highly leveraged risk assets will elevate us all to dust off Hyman Minsky’s work. Volatility will unsheathe its sword on the global financial system. The FED fears inflation for now but wait for the systemic risk unleashed by high risk positions being unwound.”
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01/28/2022 - Dr. Albert Friedberg – The Federal Reserve has Lost Control – Quarterly Conference Call
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01/19/2022 - Louis-Vincent Gave on Russia, China and the U.S. Dollar
“China and Russia are the most obvious natural trade partners in the world, right? Russia produces all the commodities that China needs. And China produces all the consumer goods and the finished goods and the capital goods that Russia needs to continue industrializing. So, you know, for them to, you know, if there’s one, you know, sort of bilateral trade relationship where you can imagine that trade will continue to expand at many times the rates of GDP growth, it’s got to be that one. And so, you know, and you know, the more trade you have between two countries, usually, you know, if you’re a believer in Ricardian equivalency and Ricardian comparative advantages, then, you know, you got to look at it positively.” – Louis-Vincent Gave on MacroVoices
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01/19/2022 - The Role of Central Bank Digital Currency in the Coming Financial Reset
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12/29/2021 - Felix Zulauf Interviews and Public Domain Quotes
“I do believe that we are looking at a very important medium-term peak. But I do not believe that is the end of this current market cycle. I think the market cycle will most likely stretch into 2024. But what we are facing now is a is a medium-term top in the next few weeks, and then a very decisive decline. And this is because, first of all, I see the world economy weaker or slowing (faster) than the consensus. I think the overshooting of retail sales on the pre-pandemic trend by 16% in the US, is an aberration and will be corrected because the fiscal impulse that was so positive will turn negative in 2022, negative by about 4 – 6%. This will dampen economic activity; real personal income is now negative and not positive anymore. I think the rest of the world is slowing too, particularly China, which continues to slow and is in a recession and will most likely stay in a recession into midyear. And while they are loosening up the tight policies, they are not stimulating yet. I expect that (to happen) from spring on, only not before. And all of this tells me that the world economy and the US economy will most likely disappoint in terms of growth, and particularly in the first half… Usually when a market corrects, you have a plain vanilla 8 – 12% correction or anything on that order. But we have had tremendous excesses of capital flows into equities. US equities, including equity products, was on the order of over $1 trillion in the last 12 months. And this compares to the same amount for the last 20 years combined. So, this is an excess of a century. And usually, when you go into a correction, highly positioned, highly leveraged, high margin accounts surprise on the downside. So, it’s very possible and conceivable that when we have usually a 10% correction, all of a sudden, it could trigger a 20 – 30% correction. And therefore, I think the first half of the year, will most likely show a very serious correction. And that could shake the authorities. And instead of the interest rate hikes that the Fed has been forecasting, I think they will rather turn around and stimulate again around the middle of the year, when the correction in the market arrives. And that should give us the next run-up to new highs. So, I could see equity indices, declining 30%, and then go up 100% to the Peak in 2024. And if the peak in 2023 – 2024 is a better economy, I think you will have another run in the commodity complex; you will have wages going higher, and you will then see the CPI probably around 10%. And, at that time, you have higher bond yields, and you have a central bank and probably around the world that has no choice but to tighten. And that I think will be the end of the bull market that we have been seeing from 2009. And that will lead to major crises probably for a few years thereafter. So, the big picture has been stretched a little bit. But, nonetheless, I see a serious and painful decline in the first half of 2022.”
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12/29/2021 - Dr. Lacy Hunt Interview
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12/20/2021 - Dr. Marc Faber on the Markets, Inflation and the Economy
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04/11/2022 - Yra Harris: Time to Escalate and Deescalate the Fed and Putin?
